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Friday February 13, 2015 - 11:21:17 GMT
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| | Email EU Mid-Market Update: Rising risk appetite helps Dax hit record high above 11,000

Fri, 13 Feb 2015 5:16 AM EST

- Risk appetite gathers momentum after thaw on Greece and cease-fire agreement in Eastern Ukraine
- Signs that a technical agreement on Greece was possible as relations between Greece and Germany seem to thaw
- European Q4 GDP paints positive picture (Germany, Portugal, Italy and Euro Zone beat expectations)
- Italy Q4 GDP registers its first non-contraction in 14 quarters

**Economic data***
- (SG) Singapore Dec Retail Sales M/M: -2.0% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 4.5%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto Y/Y: -3.2% v +0.5%e
- (FR) France Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.3%e
- (DE) Germany Q4 Preliminary GDP (beat); Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.2%e; GDP WDA Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.0%e

- (DE) Germany Jan Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.4% v -1.0% prior; Y/Y: -2.6% v -2.3% prior
- (NL) Netherlands Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0% prior
- (FR) France Q4 Preliminary Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q: 0.0% v -0.2%e; Wages Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.2%e
- (CZ) Czech Republic Q4 Advance GDP (miss); Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.9%e
- (HU) Hungary Q4 Preliminary (beat) GDP Q/Q: 0.9% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 3.4% v 2.7%e
- (ES) Spain Jan CPI M/M: -1.6% v -1.2%e; Y/Y: -1.3% v -1.4%e
- (CH) Swiss Jan Producer & Import Prices M/M: -0.6% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: -2.7% v -2.7%e
- (IT) Italy Q4 Preliminary GDP (beat); Q/Q: 0.0% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.5%e (first non-contraction in 14 quarters)
- (PL) Poland Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.1%e
- (CZ) Czech Dec Current Account Monthly (CZK): -3.8B v -15.0Be
- (CN) China Jan Aggregate Financing (CNY): 2.05T v 2.10Te
- (CN) China Jan New Yuan Loans (CNY): 1.47T v 1.35Te
- (CN) China Jan M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 10.8% v 12.5%e (slowest on record)
- (PT) Portugal Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.4%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Q4 Advance GDP (beat) Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.8%e
- (GR) Greece Q4 Advance GDP (miss) Q/Q: -0.2%% v +0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 2.1%e

- (CY) Cyprus Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.7% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: -2.0% v -1.7% prior

Fixed income:
- (IN) India sold total INR130B vs. INR130B indicated in 2020, 2028, 2033 and 2044 bonds
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR350M vs. ZAR800M indicated in I/L 2025, 2046 and 2050 Bonds

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.9%
, FTSE 100 +0.8% at 6,879, DAX +0.6% at 10,981, CAC-40 +0.7% at 4,759, IBEX-35 +1.4% at 10,715, FTSE MIB +1% at 21,229, SMI +0.5% at 8,654, Athens Stock Exchange +5.5%, S&P 500 Futures +0.2% at 2,088]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets extend Thursday's gains amid better German Q4 GDP and decline in Greek yields; DAX trades at fresh record high above 11,000, S&P 500 Futures near record high; Rolls Royce issues cautious outlook; Anglo American FY profits above ests; ArcelorMittal's FY profits improve; German Copper producer Aurubis reports better profits; ThyssenKrupp Q1 profits hurt by strike in Italy

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
[Beiersdorf BEI.DE +2% (FY profits rose), L'Oreal OR.FR +1.5% (FY LFL sales +4.9%)]
- Energy [Seadrill SDRL.NO -10% (contract cancellation)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [Anglo American AAL.UK +3% (FY profits above ests), ArcelorMittal MT.NL +2.5% (FY EBITDA rose), Aurubis NDA.DE +2% (Q1 profits above ests); ThyssenKrupp TKA.DE -3% (Q1 profits below ests)]
- Technology [Rocket Internet RKET.DE -7% (share placement), Imagination Technologies IMG.UK -3% (share placement)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Technology +1.2%, Energy +1%, Financials +0.9%, Industrials +0.7%, Basic Materials +0.7%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.6%, Telecom +0.5%, Consumer Cyclical +0.2%, Utilities +0.1%]

- EU official stated that Greece and Euro Area workers have started technical work
(as expected). Saw good technical basis for talks with Greece but no prediction on the outcome ahead of Monday's Eurogroup meeting
- EU's Moscovici: There was room to maneuver on the Greece bailout program
- France Fin Min Sapin: Greece discussions were advancing very well; Greece must respect its European commitments
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Jochnick: stated that Riksbank couldn do more if required; could cut Repo Rate further into negative territory and lower rate path outlook and extend govt bond purchases; lend to companies vis banks as well
- Hungary Econ Min Varga: Domestic growth path was sustainable; 2015 GDP could exceed the 2.5% target. Russian sanctions and fewer EU projects were some risks to growth outlook
- Russia Econ Min Ulyukayev: EU and Russia close to easing tensions in their relationship
- Donetsk Rebel Representative: Ukraine is not following Minsk agreements
- IMF on South Korea: Country to clearly benefit from lower oil prices, but might take some time. BOK has monetary, fiscal policy space to take action if clear signs of recovery did emerge

- A quiet EU session despite a plethora of European GDP data.
Dealers instead debated whether a top in the USD price action has been made. The EUR/USD remained above the 1.14 level and higher by approx. 0.2% in the session. USD/JPY staying below the 119 handle ahead of the NY morning.

**Political/In the Papers:
- (GR) Greece official confirms the ELA has been extended by 5B; extension runs for one week, until Feb 18th
- (GR) Eurogroup discussions on Greece reportedly indicate Greece would consider dialogue on surplus and privatization aspects of the bailout program; Germany willing to avoid obliging all aspects of the bailout program to remain in place
- (RU) EU Commission President Tusk: Not hesitate to take steps if Ukraine cease-fire doesn't happen

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IE) Fitch to comment on Austria sovereign
- (AT) Fitch to comment on Austria sovereign rating
- (IT) Moody's could comment on Italy sovereign rating
- (DE) Canada rating agency DBRS to comment on Germany sovereign rating
- (CO) Colombia Jan Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 22.4 prior
- (PT) Bank of Portugal releases Data on Banks
- 05:30 (SK) Slovakia Debt Agency (ARDAL) to sell combined 300M in 2024 and 2029 bonds
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Q4 Labour Costs Y/Y: No est v 0.5% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Dec Trade Balance: No est v 2.3B prior
- 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell combined 3.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills (0.5B, 1.0B and 1.5B respectively)
- 06:00 (EU) Weekly ECB 3-Year LTRO Repayment vs. 10.0Be
- 06:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserves
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (IS) Iceland Jan Unemployment Rate: No est v 3.4% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Jan CPI M/M: -0.1%e v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: -1.2%e v -1.0% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Jan M3 Money Supply M/M: -0.9%e v +2.7% prior; Y/Y: 9.0%e v 8.4% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Current Account Balance: -0.5Be v -0.3B prior; Trade Balance: -0.3Be v -0.1B prior; Exports: 12.2Be v 13.6B prior; Imports: 12.6Be v 13.7B prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Jan Import Price Index M/M: -3.2%e v -2.5% prior; Y/Y: -8.9%e v -5.5% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Dec Manufacturing Sales M/M: +0.9%e v -1.4% prior
- 08:30 (US) Revisions of Producer Price Index (PPI)
- 10:00 (US) Feb Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 98.1e v 98.1 prior
- 10:50 (BE) ECB's Preat (Belgium)
- 13:00 (PT) ECB's Constancio (Portugal)
- 13:00 (CO) Colombia Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes
- 13:30 (US) Fed's Fisher
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Jan National Urban CPI M/M: No est v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 23.9% prior
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Jan Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 28.3% prior


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