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Thursday February 19, 2015 - 12:03:59 GMT
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| | Email EU Mid-Market Update: Greece submits its loan extension request; ECB to release its first ever minutes today

Thu, 19 Feb 2015 5:22 AM EST

- Greece formally submit its request for loan extension; Eurogroup to meet on Friday to review the document
- ECB downplays talk of capital controls for Greece
- ECB to release its first ever minutes
- Dealers note FOMC language might hint to a currency war

**Economic data***
- (JP) Japan Dec Final Leading Index CI: 105,6 v 105.2 prelim; Coincident Index: 110.7 v 110.7 prelim
- (JP) Japan Jan Nationwide Dept Sales Y/Y: -2.8% v -1.7% prior; Tokyo Dept Store Sales Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.3% prior
- (CH) Swiss Jan Trade Balance (CHF): 3.4B v 1.2Be; Real Exports M/M: +2.9 v -2.9% prior; Real Imports M/M: -2.2 v +0.7% prior
- (FI) Finland Jan CPI M/M: -0.7% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v +0.5%e
- (FR) France Jan CPI M/M: -1.0% v -1.0%e; Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.3%e; CPI
- (TR) Turkey Feb Consumer Confidence Index: 68.1 v 68.0e
- (DK) Denmark Feb Consumer Confidence Indicator: 9.1 v 8.0e
- (EU) ECB 65M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 215M prior; 47.2B parked in deposit facility vs. 48.2B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec Current Account SA: 17.8B v 19.9B prior; Current Account NSA: 29.2B v 26.5B prior
- (BR) Brazil Feb IGP-M Inflation 2nd Preview: 0.2% v 0.2%e

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoso) sold total 4.172B vs. 3.5-4.5B indicated range in 2017 and 2025 bonds

- Sold 1.454B in 0.50% Oct 2017 bono bond; Avg Yield: 0.384% v 0.556% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.27x v 2.46x prior; Maximum Yield: 0.409% v 0.576% prior
- Sold 2.718B in 1.6% 2025 Bonds; Avg Yield: 1.616% (record low) v 1.731% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.02x v 1.84x prior; Maximum Yield: 1.629% v 1.752% prior
- (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold total 8.494B vs. 7.5-8.5B indicated range in 2017, 2019 and 2020 Oats
- Sold 2.033B in 4.25% Oct 2017 Oat; Avg Yield -0.10% v +0.57% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.25x v 3.32x prior
- Sold 1.825B in 3.75% Oct 2019 OAT; Avg Yield 0.03% v 1.32% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.20x v 2.14x prior
- Sold 4.636B in 0.0% new May 2020 Oats; Avg Yield 0.10% v 1.67% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.37x v 3.0x prior- (SE) Sweden sells total SEK1.0B vs. SEK1.0B indicated in I/L 2019 and 2022 bond

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.2%
, FTSE 100 flat at 6,894, DAX +0.1% at 10,975, CAC-40 +0.2% at 4,809, IBEX-35 +0.3% at 10,833, FTSE MIB +0.1% at 21,681, SMI +0.6% at 8,850, Athens Stock Exchange +1.4%, S&P 500 Futures -0.1% at 2,092]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open lower amid focus on FOMC minutes and events related to Greece; Greek equities open higher; Lower oil prices weigh on BP and Shell; FTSE 100 weighed down by Centrica and ex-dividends; Markets pare losses as ECB denies capital control speculation related to Greece; Earnings recap (Nestle, OMV beat ests ; Air France, Schneider Electric, Centrica, Deutsche Boerse and SwissRE miss ests); Ball Corp confirms offer for Rexam; Upcoming ECB minutes

By Sector
- Industrials
[BAE Systems BA.UK -2% (FY profits declined, cautious outlook); Rexam REX.UK +4% (confirmed offer from Ball Corp)
- Utilities [Centrica CAN.UK -7% (FY results below ests, cut dividend)]
- Financials [Deutsche Boerse DB1.DE -0.5% (Q4 sales below ests); Natixis KN.FR +3% (Adj FY profits above ests, acquisition)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Randstad RAND.NL +4% (Q4 profits rose, raised dividend by 36%); Air France AF.FR -4% (weak Q4 results, cut investment plan)]
- Technology [Cap Gemini CAP.FR +6% (FY profits rose, raised dividend)
- Basic Materials/Resources [Bekaert BEKB.BE -6% (cautious guidance)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Energy -1%, Utilities -1%, Technology -0.1%, Financials -0.1%, Basic Materials -0.1%; Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.5%, Telecom +0.3%, Consumer Cyclical +0.3%, Industrials flat]

- Eurogroup confirms plan to meet on Friday, Feb 20th in Brussels to discuss Greek request for bailout extension

- Greece govt official confirms it has requested a 6-month extension of the "Master Financial Assistance Facility Agreement"
- Greece and its creditors said to still be somewhat apart on bailout extension letter
- Greece Extension Request Details: Greek pledges commitment to fiscal balance during interim period under requested loan agreement extension; Reiterated commitment to reforms immediately on tax evasion and corruption. Proposal includes measures to deal with humanitarian crisis and support the economy. . New deal will also include agreement on debt reduction; seeking debt reduction in line with 2012 Eurogroup agreement.
- ECB denied press reports that he Governing Council discussed capital controls for Greece at yesterday's non-monetary policy meeting
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Jansson stated that he saw decent domestic economic growth ahead. Weaker SEK currency (Krona) should be good for the domestic economy and exports; also to aid inflation outlook. Lower oil prices was a positive factor for growth. Inflation expectations have potential to rise further. Riksbank needed to be prepared to do more. Hard to know the effects of negative interest rates
- Sweden Debt Agency raised its net borrowing requirements for both 2015 and 2016 period citing larger deficits. Raised 2015 net borrowings from SEK51B to SEK80M and raised 2016 net borrowings from SEK13B to SEK34B
- German IFO chief Sinn: Greece was bankrupt and must be accepted by its creditors. Country needed to go back to the Drachma currency (leave the Euro)
- German think-tank DIW official Fratzacher: Compromise with Greece PM Tsipras is possible. Greek capital control would be a last resort
- Japan govt (cabinet office) Feb Report maintained economic assessment for the 4th consecutive month. Current overall assessment was seeing a moderate recovery though weakness could be seen in private consumption

- The USD faced some headwinds following the release of the FOMC minutes. Fed noted that value of the USD was expected to be a persistent source of restraint on net exports
- The EUR/USD was steady after its post FOMC-gains with dealers eyeing a close above $1.1449 to hint at a shift higher

**Political/In the Papers:
- (GR) ECB to expand Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) for Greece banking sector for another 2 weeks and set the funding at 68.3B vs 65B prior (3.3B increase vs 5B increase in prior move). Separate reports suggested the Greece central bank had requested 5B or 10B increase in the ELA. ECB'S Weidmann (Germany) was said to vote against the increase in the ELA.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (RO) Romania to sell 5.75% 2020 bond
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell Bonds
- 05:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 1.0-2.0B in 0.1% I/L 2025 Oatei
- 06:00 (UK) Feb CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: +6e v +4 prior; Selling Prices: -7e v -6 prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Dec Manufacturing Production M/M: No est v -0.7% prior
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 12-month Bills; sells CZK in 12-month Bills; Yield: % v 0.09% prior; bid-to-cover: x v 1.1x prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Feb 13th: No est v $374.7B prior
- 07:30 - (EU) ECB Minutes (**Note: first release ever)
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Feb Minutes
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 290Ke v 304K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.345Me v 2.354M prior
- 08:30 (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Jansson
- 10:00 (US) Feb Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook: 9.0e v 6.3 prior
- 10:00 (US) Jan Leading Index: 0.3%e v 0.5% prior
- 10:00 (EU) Euro Zone Feb Advance Consumer Confidence: -7.5e v -8.5 prior

- 10:00 (DE) German Bundesbank member Dombret in Frankfurt
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Treasure 2-year, 5-year, 7-year and 2-year FRN announcement
- 12:15 (CA) Bank of Canada Dep Gov Ctspeech
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $9.0B in 30-Year TIPS
- 16:00 (NZ) New Zealand Government 6-Month Financial Statements
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Dec Trade Balance: -$1.2Be v -$1.3B prior; Total Imports: No est v $5.3B prior
- 20:35 (JP) Japan Feb Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: No est v 52.2 prior


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