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Tuesday May 12, 2015 - 21:37:43 GMT -

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Tuesday's Trading Thread

The focus Tuesday was on global bond yields with an overnight spike higher sending the dollar lowwr. However, the US currency and equities came off respective lows after bonds came off lows as well. This sets the stage for an event filled Wednesday, which should take some of the focus off gloobal bonds.





Tuesday's Trading thread from the Forex Forum:

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  18:10:17 GMT - 05/12/2015  
US 10-yr back to around unchanged and bounce in yields seems to have given USD some support. I guess it depends on what algos are turned on.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  16:50:44 GMT - 05/12/2015  
EURUSD 4 hour chart - range within a range


dc CB  14:48:35 GMT - 05/12/2015  
Running the 10:30 Express Buy All Index Algo


Paris ib  14:46:08 GMT - 05/12/2015  
I think I agree. Day trade and keep it very safe.


dc CB  14:44:32 GMT - 05/12/2015  
as Mr Citadel Head Trader: Buy the Indexes

as Mr. Pimco Head Trader: Buy Treas across the board

Mr. Money-to-Burn


Cape May jb  14:31:48 GMT - 05/12/2015  
MR- I think we have moved into a day trader's market. I think you have to keep a close eye on the bund yield. Only If it takes out 0.75% will the EURUSD rally. I think you have to play it close to the vest and go for what the market will give you.


Paris ib  14:26:24 GMT - 05/12/2015  
Despite the chest beating yields are still low and likely to rise over time. The chance of a substantial fall from current levels is virtually nil. The rise in yields will be more devastating for some countries than others. Germany, for example, is not running a government deficit and can currently roll 10 year debt at under 0.70 percent. Which is phenomenally low.

The rising cost of funding will likely hit the United States harder. First, because it relies on foreign funding and second because it rolls a lot of debt in shorter maturities. That means that it is forced to roll a lot of debt all the time. Any rise in yield will therefore be felt sooner.

So sell the USD on any strength.


Dubai MR  14:15:22 GMT - 05/12/2015  
Bonds have steadied but USD is still trading soft. Any suggestions for a trade?


London Chris  13:35:59 GMT - 05/12/2015  
There were also calls by Gross and others that bonds with negative yields were a sell..

fwiw markets seem more sensitive to when yields rise than when they fall off.


london red  12:43:00 GMT - 05/12/2015  
why yields have risen? Simple, deflation is being priced out. We are not yet at inflation stage but reflating expectations. Oil and commodities have broken the deflation trade.
Greece btw has 90m in cash. Risk of default/grexit working its way in.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  11:58:49 GMT - 05/12/2015  
What the rise in EZ yields, especially bund yields does is alleviates the reinvestment issue, where CBs, pension funds, etc could not rollover maturing bonds at negative yields. This eases some sell EUR pressures by those who could not reinvest at a negative yields.

With that said, EURUSD remains within 1.05-1.15 and is still below last week's 1.1392 high (that coincided with a 0.75% bund yield) and 1.1289 (post=-FOMC high)


GVI Forex john   11:49:21 GMT - 05/12/2015  
We already have had a sustained decline in bund prices. Why hasn't the ECB acted or said something by now? They are sending a signal that recent developments are not an issue.


NY JM  11:46:41 GMT - 05/12/2015  
On the other side, the ECB can counter bond pressures with QE while the Fed can only reinvest maturing bonds.


GVI Forex john   11:45:20 GMT - 05/12/2015  
DAX -257
DJ -151
SP -17

DE 0.737% +12.7bp
GB 2.034% +10.8bp
US 2.364% +9.4bp


GVI Forex john   11:34:41 GMT - 05/12/2015  
The key question is WHY have bund yields risen by something around 70 bps in the past three weeks or so. The only explanation I can come up with is that there is a growing perception that the Eurozone economy has been recovering faster than expected and that QE will be cut short. If this proves to be true, the markets will not wait for the ECB.

On the other hand, U.S. data continue to be uneven, and mostly disappointing. So far, in 2015 the U.S. recovery has not been as promised. Thus the premise for a move of EURUSD to parity or below is not being met. Of course things can change, so we have to continue to watch the data.


Mtl JP  10:10:18 GMT - 05/12/2015  
so far (paper) Gold is not tanking tho as might be expected when interest rates rise.


GVI Forex john   09:42:56 GMT - 05/12/2015  
Its always interesting for me when the markets take monetary policy in their own hands.


GVI Forex john   09:03:03 GMT - 05/12/2015  
The break in bond prices (higher yields) could turn very ugly. Its never pretty when a financial bubble bursts.


GVI Forex john   08:30:17 GMT - 05/12/2015  
DE bond yields higher
DE 10-yr 0.669% +5.9bp


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