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Wednesday May 13, 2015 - 16:03:51 GMT
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Wed, 13 May 2015 11:53 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (PT) Portugal Apr CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.5%e
- (PT) Portugal Apr CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.5%e
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e May 8th: -3.5% v -4.6% prior
- (RU) Russia Apr Official Reserve Assets: $356.0B v $350.0Be
- (US) Apr Advance Retail Sales M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.1% v 0.5%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas: 0.2% v 0.6%e; Retail Sales Control Group: 0.0% v 0.5%e
- (US) Apr Import Price Index M/M: -0.3% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: -10.7% v -9.7%e
- (CA) Canada Teranet/National Bank HPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 4.4% v 4.7% prior; House Price Index: 168.42 v 168.01 prior
- (US) Mar Business Inventories: 0.1% v 0.2%e
- (US) DOE Crude: -2.2M v 0.0Me; Gasoline: -1.1M v +0.5Me; Distillate: -2.5M v +0.5Me

European indices closed just a few points off their lows this morning, with big equity gains on mixed preliminary Q1 GDP data (France was a bit better than expected, Germany missed). US stocks were volatile, quickly shrugging off the April retail sales miss for a move up in the first 30 minutes of cash trading, followed by a move back towards unchanged. Bond markets continue to see-saw higher. As of writing, the DJIA is up 0.05%, the S&P500 is up 0.06% and the Nasdaq is up 0.24%.

European bond yields dipped lower earlier today in the wake of the soft April Chinese Industrial Production and Germany Q1 GDP data, helping prices recover from Tuesday's bout of selling, and Germany and Italy both successfully sold government debt. However the trend was reversed during the US session after the April retail sales report, with the 10-year UST giving up gains and adding 2.2 basis points, while the 10-year bund yield headed back in the direction of last Thursday's highs, adding five basis points to trade 0.720%.

The April advance retail sales report for April was pretty weak, however there were also positive revisions to the March data. Both the April headline total sales and the control group (which fees into the GDP reading) were flat, widely missing expectations. Meanwhile, the March headline Sales revised higher from 0.9% to 1.1% and the control was revised from 0.3% to 0.5%. Analysts highlight that April retail sales were curbed by declines in sales of cars, furniture, electronics and appliances. The greenback saw big gains after the retail sales report, with EUR/USD rising from 1.1220 as high as 1.1360.

WTI crude saw big gains through yesterday's session, aided at first by dollar losses and then after the US cash close by the second consecutive drawdown seen in last week's API crude inventories report. WTI was probing the $61.80 level ahead of today's DoE inventories report, which like the API numbers saw a consecutive drawdown in crude stocks, although WTI tumbled more than a buck after the report. Brent remain just below six-month highs at $67.80.

DuPont investors rejected Nelson Peltz's attempt to get on the board at the annual meeting today, the first failure for an activist campaign mounted by Trian Fund Management. The outcome is a big victory for DuPont Chairman and CEO Kullman, who refused to settle the proxy fight by giving a board seat to Peltz. Trian had splitting DuPont into two companies. Shares of DD are down 6% on the news.

Retailers Macys and Ralph Lauren are down today after tepid quarterly results. Ralph beat earnings expectations and beefed up its stock buyback, but tis comps were deep in the red and margins were under pressure. Macys earnings and revenue missed, while its guidance for the current quarter was for another earnings miss. M is off 2.0% and RL is down 3.0%, while many other retail names are following them lower.

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:00 (IS) Iceland Apr International Reserves (ISK): No est v 593B prior
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $24B in 10-Year Notes
- 22:05 (NZ) New Zealand to sell NZD300M in Nominal Bonds


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