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Monday May 18, 2015 - 11:00:04 GMT
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| | Email EU Mid-Market Update: Tepid start to trading week

Mon, 18 May 2015 5:08 AM EST

- Greek PM Tsipras letter to IMF reveals precariousness of Greece's finances; EU steps up pressure for structural reforms
- Slide in Chinese home prices ebbs a bit in April

**Economic data***
- (CH) Swiss Mar Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -2.8% v -2.7% prior
- (IT) Italy Mar Total Trade Balance: €4.1B v €3.5B prior; Trade Balance EU: 0.5B v €0.7B prior

Fixed Income:
- None seen

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.3%, FTSE 100 +0.5% at 6,992, DAX +1% at 11,553, CAC-40 +0.3% at 5,008, IBEX-35 flat at 11,318, FTSE MIB -1.1% at 23,209, SMI +0.9% at 9,188, Athens Stock Exchange -2.5%, S&P 500 Futures flat at 2,119]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equity markets generally open slightly higher following Friday's losses; Italy's FTSE MIB weighed down by ex-dividends; Greek banks open sharply lower; Government bond yields open higher; DAX later rebounds amid weaker euro; Key event risks for the week include (Germany ZEW, Germany IFO, German Prelim Manufacturing PMI; US and UK CPI; FOMC and BoE minutes; UK retail sales)

By Sector
- Technology [Blinkx BLNX.UK -7% (reported FY net loss); Aveva AVV.UK +5% (takeover speculation) ]
- Consumer Discretionary [Edenred EDEN.FR -3% (CEO resigned); Bwin.Party BPTY.UK +10% (takeover offer)]
- Industrials [BAM Groep BAMNB.NL -4% (reported Q1 loss); Babcock International BAB.UK +2% (FY profits rose)]
- Telecom [Inmarsat ISAT.UK -3% (satellite delay)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Consumer Cyclical +1.1%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.3%, Industrials +0.3%, Telecom +0.1%, Technology +0.1%; Utilities -0.6%, Financials -0.4%, Basic Materials -0.3%, Energy -0.2%]

- IMF memo said to note some progress in talks; Greece will NOT be able to make June 5th payments without more aid; IMF not pushing the EU to consider debt relief - ECB director general of market operations Bindseil: To maintain price stability mandate
- ECB's Mersch (Luxembourg): Should maintain pace and volume of QE as announced; Unconventional policy must stay 'exceptional and time bound'
- SNB's Zurbruegg stated that he was satisfied with impact of negative interest rates and did not see any 1930s style deflationary spiral nor any recession taking hold in Switzerland. Reiterated CHF currency (Franc) remains highly valued and expect it to weaken against the EUR currency. SNB was looking at exchange rate of Franc against several currencies.
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves: Wants to ensure that inflation rises to target but still too low at this time. Important to make sure inflation expectations are well anchored
- Spain Fin Min De Guindos: Rise in bond yields part of normalization process
- EU's Tusk: To maintain sanctions on Russia at June Summit. Reiterates view that he did not want Greece to exit the Euro
- Fed's Evans (US) Fed's Evans (dove, 2015 FOMC voter: Reiterates favors rate hike in early 2016
- BOJ chief economist Maeda reiterated view that Japan had entered a modest recovery with upcoming Q1 GDP to show above potential growth. Reiterates view that BOJ saw no need to take additional policy measures at this time. Consumer spending to become more solid
- Kuwait OPEC Gov: Current oversupply due to low global demand and rise in production from shale oil
- Saudi Arabia March oil production at 10.29M bpd (press report)

- The USD manages to consolidate from recent lows against the major pairs in quiet trading. The EUR/USD moved back below the 1.14 level after hitting 3-month highs last week. The Greek situation remained a headwind with weekend press reports of the recent negotiating tactics by Greece in making its recent €750M payment to the IMF. The upcoming Jun 5th payment looking more vulnerable if no EU agreement is reached in the current round of talks.

**Political/In the Papers:
-(EU) Fitch may downgrade overall rating for European banks as early as the start of this week - German press; May downgrade by 1-4 notches as European govts less willing to support banks if they fall into crisis.
- (GR) Germany Economy Min Gabriel: Further funds for Greece depend on more reform
- (IR) Iran deputy oil minister: OPEC unlikely to cut production at June meeting

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (UK) UK Parliament meets for First Time Since Election
- (UR) Ukraine Apr Industrial Production M/M: -1.0%e v +9.6% prior; Y/Y: -20.5%e v -21.1% prior
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell €2.0-4.0B in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- (SK) Slovakia Debt Agency (ARDAL) to sell 2018 and 2024 bonds
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €1.5B in 12-month Bubills
- 06:00 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency to sell €2.0-2.8B in 2021, 2025 and 2028 OLO Bonds
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) EU's Moscovici in Berlin
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces size of upcoming Bill/Bonds auctions
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Q1 GDP Q/Q: 0.9%e v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 2.2%e v 1.8% prior
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Q1 Current Account Balance: +$1.0Be v -$0.7B prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined €4.8-6.0B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Mar Trade Balance: No est v €1.1B prior
- 09:35 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 09:45 (EU) ECB announces Covered-Bond Purchases
- 10:00 (US) May NAHB Housing Market Index: 57e v 56 prior
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $48B in 3-Month and 6-Month
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Q1 Unemployment Rate: 7.5%e v 6.9% prior
- 17:00 (KR) South Korea Apr PPI Y/Y: No est v -3.7% prior
- 21:30 (AU) RBA May Minutes
- 23:00 (NZ) New Zealand Q1 2-Year Inflation Expectation
- 23:45 (JP) Japan to sell 5-Year JGB Bonds 


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