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Monday August 10, 2015 - 09:40:35 GMT
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| | Email EU Mid-Market Update: Greek bailout talks aiming to conclude rescue talks by tomorrow

Mon, 10 Aug 2015 5:17 AM EST

- Soft China Trade and inflation data renews expectations for further policy easing; talk also that China govt could offer a sizable stimulus package; Shanghai Composite +5%
- Also speculation that China officials to speed up mergers of state owned companies
- Greece, creditors closing in on a 3rd €86B bailout agreement and leave sufficient time for national parliaments to approve the deal before the August 20th repayment to the ECB is due
- Nordic data in session misses expectations
- Euro Zone Sentix Confidence falls for the 4th straight month

**Economic data***
- (JP) Japan July Consumer Confidence Index: 40.3 v 41.7 prior

- (FR) Bank of France July Business Sentiment (miss): 98 v 99e
- (CZ) Czech July CPI (miss) M/M: -0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.6%e
- (CZ) Czech July Unemployment Rate: 6.3% v 6.3%e
- (HU) Hungary Jun Preliminary Trade Balance: €0.8B v €0.6Be
- (DE) Denmark Jun Current Account Balance (DKK): 10.4B v 13.5Be; Trade Balance (ex-shipping): 6.3B v 7.5Be
- (DE) Denmark July CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.6%e
- (SE) Sweden Jun Industrial Production (miss) M/M: -1.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 2.6%e
- (NO) Norway July CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.9%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Aug Sentix Investor Confidence (miss): 18.4 v 20.3e (4th consecutive month of decline)
- (GR) Greece Jun Industrial Production (beat) Y/Y: -4.5% v -5.4%e

Fixed Income Issuance:
- None seen

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.1%
, FTSE 100 -0.5% at 6,687, DAX +0.1% at 11,503, CAC-40 +0.1% at 5,157, IBEX-35 +0.4% at 11,222, FTSE MIB +0.5% at 23,812, SMI +0.1% at 9,413, Athens Stock Exchange +1%, S&P 500 Futures +0.2 at 2,079]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equities slid in early trading lead by banking and energy shares; HSBC and Lloyds drop over 1%; continuing low oil price weighed on BP and Shell; disappointing trade and inflation data from China dampened risk sentiment; slipping commodity prices pulled down mining stocks such as BHP Billiton, Antofagasta Miniarlas and Anglo American; Anglo American said to be discussing further asset sales in Chile

By Sector:
- Consumer discretionar
y [Dixons Carphone DC.UK -1.2% (cyberattack investigation)]
- Financials [Banco Popolare SC BP.IT +3.8% (results beat)]
- Industrials [Meggit MGGT.UK +1.0% (acquisition)]
- Materials [GLencore GLEN.UK -1.1% (broker action)]
- Technology [Opera Software OPERA.NO -6.4% (profit warning)]

- Turkey Presidential advisor Bulut:
Country should have new elections (**Reminder: The govt has been unable to establish a coalition since the Jun 7th elections)
-Poland Fin Min official Kotecki: Current version of CHF-denominated draft law is dangerous for banking sector

- FX markets were relatively quiet on Monday following last Friday's volatility.
The USD price action on Friday saw the greenback initially rally after the US payroll report (seen as increasing the chance of the Fed hiking rates in September). Analysts noted that it would require severe US data disappointments to keep policy on hold at this time. However, the USD saw a quick reversal attributed to falling risk appetite highlighted by lower commodity prices to moderated rate expectations somewhat
- EUR/USD entering the NY morning at 1.0966 little changed from its Asian opening level. Hopes that the 3rd bailout package for Greece could be wrapped up soon and pave the way for Greece to make its scheduled Aug 20th payment to the ECB.
- The GBP/USD continued to trade below the 1.5530 level (break of last week's spring uptrend line).
- Softer Consumer confidence data in Japan weighed upon the yen and highlighted the challenge policymakers have in their plans to raise the tax again in 2017
- Disappointing Nordic data failed to inspire any long-lasting FX moves for either the SEK or NOK currencies

**Fixed Income:
- Bund futures
trade at 154.31 down 8 ticks on the day in a quiet morning session with talks on creditors closing in on an agreement in Greece helping lift sentiment. To the upside a break of today's high at 154.45 would signal a move back up towards 155.09 the months highs, with strength beyond seeing a 155.44 the top of the channel. To the downside analysts see 153.95 as near term support, with 153.67 next. A break of this would target the 38.2% retracement level at 152.91.
- UK Gilt futures trades 117.45 down 14 ticks on a quiet mornings trade. A break of today's highs at 117.71 have analysts look for upside resistance at 118.15 the July high with a break targeting 118.83. To the downside a break of the lows could target 117.04 followed by 116.70. From here sees gap support at 116.24.
- Monday's liquidity report showed Friday's excess liquidity rise to €468.7B a rise of €0.7B from €468.0B prior. This was due primarily a small fall of €0.7B in AFs and MonPol portfolios to negative €46.9B. AFs are negative when the MonPol portfolios exceeds the liquidity absorbing effect of AFs. Use of the marginal lending facility fell to €204M from €215M prior.
- Corporate Issuance saw $18B come to market last weak slightly shy of estimates. This week analysts estimate some $20-25B issuance coming to market.
- Weekly Supply: Europe sees a quiet week in term of supply with the €4.0B 10y Bund issuance out of Germany on Wednesday being the main focal point. The net cash flow for the week is negative with no C&R due this week.
- The UK DMO will tap its 43y Gilt Linker for £650M on Tuesday. With no C&R due this week, net cash flow is negative for the week.
- The US will issue a total of $64.0B this week with a new 3y Notes to be issues on Tuesday, a New 10y Not on Wednesday and a new 30y Bond on Thursday. Net cash flow for the week is negative with no C&R to be repaid.

**Political/In the Papers:
- (GR) Greece negotiators and European creditors reportedly make progress and close in on a €86B bailout agreement in latest weekend-long round of bailout negotiations
- (GR) EU Deputy Finance Ministers may meet on Friday, Aug 14th to grant approval for Greece's new bailout program. Greece Parliament asked to approve the third bailout by Thursday, Aug 13th, and to legislate additional reform measures before Aug 20th,

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IL) Israel Central Bank July Minutes of Rate Meeting
- (MX) Mexico July Nominal Wages: No est v 4.4% prior
- 05:30 (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Skingsley
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €2.0B in 6-month Bubills
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Jun Trade Balance: No est v -€1.1B prior
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON300M in 10-year bond
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 08:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond auction
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined €5.9-7.1B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills
- 09:00 (US) Fed's Lockhart (moderate, FOMC voter) at conference in Atlanta
- 09:35 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 09:45 (EU) ECB announces Covered-Bond Purchases
- 10:00 (US) July Labor Market Conditions: No est v 0.8% prior
- 11:30 (US) Treasuries to sell $48B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 12:00 (CH) Switzerland National Bank (SNB) Zurbruegg speech
- 12:25 (US) Fed's Lockhart (moderate, FOMC voter) speaks to the Atlanta Press Club
- 16:00 (US) Crop Condition Report
- 17:00 (KR) South Korea July Import Price Index M/M: No est v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v -14.0% prior
- 17:00 (KR) South Korea July Export Price Index M/M: No est v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v -2.2% prior
- 18:00 (NZ) New Zealand July ANZ Heavy Truckometer: No est v 1.6% prior
- 19:01 (UK) July BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y: 1.0%e v 1.8% prior
- 20:00 (SG) Singapore Q2 Final GDP Q/Q -4.6%e v -4.6% prelim; Y/Y: 1.6%e v 1.7% prelim
- 21:00 (PH) Philippines Jun Exports: No est v $4.9B prior; Y/Y: -13.6%e v -17.4% prior
- 23:00 (TH) Thailand to sell THB6.0B in 2029 bonds
- 23:30 (HK) Hong Kong to sell 3-month, 6-Month and 12-Month Bills
- 23:45 (JP) Japan to sell 30-Year JGB Bonds


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