Saturday January 2, 2016 - 13:00:42 GMT
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Active Year In Store
John M. Bland, MBA, CTA
Market Bias For A Strong USD in 2016
Expectations are for a strong USD performance in the new year with the Fed widely seen raising rates in the first half of the new year, while the bias of ECB policy is expected to remain dovish. Few are expecting to see additional rate reductions, but an easy policy bias is expected to weigh on the EURUSD pair. Personally, I agree with expectations for the general bias of policies for the U.S. in the first half of the new year, but I withhold judgement on how "as expected" policies will impact the forex markets. Dollar bulls were frustrated on many occasions in the second half of the past year.
The first week of the New Year can be very eventful as many who had squared up heading into the holiday period rush to establish their positions for the new year. The impact of this activity can be profound on forex valuations when there is a strong market consensus on where the markets are headed. There is little doubt about the relative direction of monetary policies for the first half of 2016, however markets have not been reacting recently the way they should have and this could result in a more restrained start to trade in the new year. Keep a close eye on the PMI and employment reports this week which could shape market sentiment.
The upcoming week will open with a full schedule of data.
All day Global Mfg PMIs
08:55 DE- Employment
09:30 GB- Construction PMI
10:00 EZ- flash HICP
All day Global Service PMIs 13:30 US- Trade
16:00 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Minutes
09:00 EZ- Retail PMI
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
09:30 GB- Trade
13:30 US/CA- Employment
01:30 CN- CPI
Be sure to refer daily Global-View to see the continuously UPDATED Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
John M. Bland
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