Monday February 29, 2016 - 19:35:43 GMT
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Mixed Messages On The Outlook For The Timing Of A Fed Tightening
The S&P is looking heavy, but EURUSD is not getting the lift it once would have. Just looking also at Fed Fund futures. Prices in maturities through Sep 2016 are higher today, meaning the "expected value" of Fed Funds has fallen a touch today. From October out, prices are lower meaning expected rates are a touch higher.
So its mixed messages. Reduced risk of higher rates ahead of the November elections and a slightly higher rick of a Fed tightening afterwards. This is a fuzzy message for the USD.
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