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Saturday June 4, 2016 - 21:58:09 GMT
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Poor Jobs Data; Secret Agreement To Manage USD

John M. Bland, MBA

Weak Jobs Report
Markets were blindsided Friday by the much weaker than forecast +38K increase in Non-farm payrolls. Analysts had been looking for net increase in jobs on the order of +160K after adjusting for a loss of roughly 35K due to the now ended Verizon strike. Government officials were out in force following the data trying to explain the report, but had no special factors to cite that would have explained the unexpected miss. Markets have taken a June Fed rate hike off the table and lowered the odds for a July move to below 50%. Keep in mind, June employment data will be announced well before the July FOMC. Any special distortions, if any, in the May data will have been uncovered by that time. Fed Chair Yellen speaks on the economy Monday. Her reaction to this report will be closely followed.

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USD Management Accord?
The recent period has been a difficult time for those trying to find a trend to stick. That is because of the choppiness of prices. Forex markets are having difficulty with their attention span. This might be due to the fact that the USD has been having increasing problems following through on positive news. It reacts initially well to good news but then lacks the wherewithal to follow through with upward momentum. Some suspect that there may be a secret agreement between G7 and the U.S. to manage the currency in order to stimulate global activity. I have suspected for some time that such a scheme exists, and on Thursday this was the subject of a question posed to ECB President Draghi, who dismissed the concept, just as I assumed he would. Its interesting that others independently are wondering about the same thing that I am. Following the poor May U.S. jobs report Friday, some suspected that central banks might have been selling EURUSD.


08:10 EZ- Retail PMI
15:00 US- Yellen Speech
04:30 AU- RBA Decision
09:00 EZ- GDP
23:50 JP- GDP
06:15 CH- CPI
14:30 US- Crude
21:00 NZ- RBNZ Decision
00:00 CN- Holiday
01:30 CN- CPI
08:30 GB- Trade
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
00:00 CN- Holiday
12:30 CA- Employment
12:30 US- Productivity
14:00 US- University of Michigan


Be sure to refer daily Global-View to see the continuously UPDATED Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

John M. Bland


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Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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