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Saturday June 18, 2016 - 01:06:08 GMT
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Too Much To Handle: Fed And Brexit?

John M. Bland, MBA

Finally The Brexit Vote
This week on Thursday, June 23, the U.K. will finally hold its referendum on whether it should leave the EU ("BREXIT"). The vote is non-binding, but if it passes it is expected to put into motion actions to eventually exit the U.K. from the EU. If it passes, it could also see the Cameron Government fall and possibly trigger national elections. In short, it could result in considerable political uncertainty in the U.K. Markets have been taking a defensive posture into the vote. Its outcome is expected to be very close. Recent polls have mostly been showing the "Leave" vote gathering momentum. Many political experts expect last minute deciders to favor "Stay". We expect financial markets and the GBP to react strongly to either a "Leave" or "Stay" outcome.

Click to participate in our Brexit Poll

Fed Policy Turn
Fed policy took a surprisngly dovish turn in the latest week following a much weaker than expected May employment report released at the start of the month. This policy shift was fundamental as the central bank appeared to accept that the longer term growth potential of the economy has slowed and the "neutral" level of interest rates correspondingly has fallen. As a result, Fed Funds futures odds on a rate hike in July are now a scant 6% and they only price in 40% odds on one hike by year-end. This news has been a blow to the fundamentally bullish USD scenario of the markets. We could move now more in the direction of a two-way trading market. Fed Chair Yellen testifies this week before Congress, and this change in the long term outlook for the economy should be a major topic of discussion.


No Major Data
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
14:00 US- Yellen Testimony
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
14:00 US- Yellen Testimony
14:30 US- Crude Oil
All Day flash PMIs

08:00 DE- IFO Survey
14:00 US- prelim Univ of Mich

Be sure to refer daily Global-View to see the continuously UPDATED Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

John M. Bland


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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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