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Friday September 9, 2016 - 22:03:40 GMT
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Fed And ECB Policies Intertwined

John M. Bland, MBA

ECB Disappoints
It is not often that the policy decision of the ECB every six weeks or so impacts global financial markets, but such was the case on Thursday September 8. With the Eurozone economy growing slowly, many were expecting the central bank to do more to stimulate growth. Since it is increasingly being accepted that negative interest rates do not provide the stimulus that in theory economists felt they would, no reduction (more negative) cut in interest rates was expected. Many had been hoping that the ECB would take technical steps to facilitate additional Quantitative Ease (QE). A growing view is that the ECB is stuck on hold until the Fed begins to adjust its monetary policies. The ECB could be caught out by an unexpected Fed move, so they are on hold. President Draghi spent the better part of his hour-long post-decision press conference trying to say nothing, and he was successful in that objective. Like it or not, with the EUR increasingly becoming a reserve currency, expect ECB and Fed policies to become increasingly intertwined.

Current Market Conditions
The U.S. has recently had a run of disappointing economic data starting with the lacklustre August employment report which suggested weakness in all key metrics. This was followed by unexpected weakness in the two closely-watched ISM PMIs, Manufacturing and Service, for August. It is hard to imagine how the Fed could announce a rate hike on September 21 with clouds over the economy heading into the November presidential election. Recent data had seen the markets lower the odds for a September 21 rate hike until on Friday Boston Fed President Rosengren seemed to put the chances of a September 21 rate hike back on the table. I agree with current Fed Funds futures odds which indicate the chances for a hike are only one in five. The key U.S. news this week will be Retail Sales data data on Thursday.

12-SEP Monday
No major Data
13-SEP Tuesday
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
14-SEP Wednesday
08:30 GB- Employment
14:30 US- Weekly Crude
15-SEP Thursday
00:00 CN- Holiday
00:30 AU- Employment
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
11:00 GB- BOE Decision
12:30 US- PPI
12:30 US- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Current Account
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
12:30 US- Philly Fed
13:15 US- Industrial Production
16-SEP Friday
00:00 CN- Holiday
12:30 US- CPI
14:00 US- University of Michigan Survey

Be sure to refer daily Global-View to see the continuously UPDATED Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

John M. Bland


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Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
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AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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