Monday March 13, 2017 - 18:54:22 GMT
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Forex Trading Ideas For Tuesday 14 March 2017
Trading Ideas for 14 Mar 2017
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WEEKLY Forex Economic Calendar:
14 Mar Tue
13:30 US- PPI
15 Mar Wed
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Decision
16 Mar Thu
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
08:30 CH- SNB Decision
12:00 GB- BOE Decision
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
17 Mar Fri
14:15 US- Industrial Production
15:00 US- Univ of Mich (prelim)
- On Tuesday, one exogenous factor could be the major No'reaster storm which is expected to hit Washington, New York and Boston with heavy snow, winds and flooding. By Wednesday it will have exited the region.
- This week features an active data and event calendar. Wednesday, Holland holds national elections. because of the structure of their political system it seems almost certain that the next government will be a coalition and not favor an exit from the EU. Wednesday features what appears to be a near-certain Fed rate hike of +25bps.
- Oftentimes in forex things just don't work out as planned. This is why we warn against trading on "conventional wisdom". Using "conventional wisdom" can make you a member of the "pack". I know because I have often fallen into that trap. On Friday, markets were universally expecting a strong U.S. employment report, based on a number of often reliable advance indicators. The data proved to be solid, but it was not the blockbuster report that everyone had been expecting. Beware trading with the the crowd. It can only end in tears.
- Secondly, there was a tip-off early that things were not right. If "everyone" was expecting a strong U.S. report, as "everyone" appeared to be, why was EURUSD trading ABOVE 1.0600 before the release? My tentative plan early in the week had been to short the EURUSD heading into the data, but despite rising bond yields etc., I sensed that the trade was simply not coming together. Something was not right. So I aborted that plan. From the release of the report, the Amazing Trader program was telling me not to buy USD. It was flashing Buy EURUUSD signals. By listening to it, I was able to stay out of trouble.
- There appears to have been a large flow in the back end of last week out of the JPY into the EUR. Be alert to see if this flow is continuing. With the European economy expected to recover next year. investors are already starting to buy European stocks. Jay has susggested that they may financing these investments in JPY. This is called a "carry trade". You borrow funds "cheaply" in a depreseed currency to buy an asset in a stable to strong currency and hope to make money on both sides of the transaction. Keep7 a close eye on the EURJPY cross as interest in the strong USD trade starts to wane.
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