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Friday January 19, 2018 - 17:03:17 GMT
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“Dovish” Bank of Canada Policy Tightening. ECB Meeting Thursday Could Be Revealing

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder,

Bank Of Canada Raises Rates As was widely expected, the Bank of Canada raised its target rate for overnight funds to 1.25% by 25bps from 1.00%. In his press conference afterwards, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz said that the rate rise “'validates” data we have seen and that it was not a “no brainer”. Furthermore he said "Today we have more room than we did a year ago; with economy in such good health, we are confident we can continue to build on this". He warned that we cannot assume the end of NAFTA would be only a small shock, but companies tell us investment would rise if NAFTA revision is agreed upon. He also said that the Bank of Canada remains fully data dependent. NAFTA is a very big unknown to us and we have to be prepared for new economic shocks. He also said that leaving rates on hold Wednesday had been a real possibility. The bank raised its 2018 inflation outlook from 1.7% to 2.0%, and maintained its 2019 inflation forecast at 2.1%. It said the economy likely grew 3% in 2017 and forecast 2.2% for 2018.

The reaction of credit markets was to lower the yield on 2-yr notes to 1.76% from 1.78% and drop the yield on the 10-yr bond to 2.17% from 2.18% immediately after the more cautious policy than expected policy statement by Governor Poloz. The chart below suggests markets are split on an outlook for either one or two rate hikes in the next two years. The USDCAD has traded in a rough 1.2900 (1.30 spike) to 1.2350 range this year. The Canadian dollar is close to its strongest point (1.2425) at the present time. 

European Central Bank Decision Due Thursday, September 25 will the next ECB Meeting. No change in policy is currently expected at this meeting, however markets will be highly sensitive to any hints of a tighter monetary policy later this year. ECB Council member Coeure said on Thursday that the Euro-Zone economy is in expansion and no longer “recovery”. That implies that the excessively expansionary policy of the central bank is probably no longer appropriate. Another hint at a move in the direction of policy normalization would be EUR constructive. On the other hand, recently we have heard grumblings by key officials about excessive recent strength of the EURUSD.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 23 Jan 2018
03:30 JP- Bank of Japan
10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 24 Jan 2018
All Day Flash PMIs
09:30 GB- Employment
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 25 Jan 2018
00:00 AU- Holiday 09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
23:30 JP- Core CPI
Fri 26 Jan 2018
09:30 GB- GDP
13:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
13:30 US- Durable Goods & GDP

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
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Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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