Friday February 16, 2018 - 15:25:33 GMT
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Dollar Worries Starting To Mount As Foreign Investors Reduce Exposures
John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com
Equity Markets Volatile With Prices Correcting Financial Markets have seen considerable turmoil in recent weeks, with Forex and Fixed income markets following the lead of equities. On Wednesday, U..S. January CPI data came in hotter than expected and solidified market expectations for a rate hike the March 21 Fed Meeting. This will be the first meeting by Jerome Powell as new Fed Chair. Powell will also get a chance at this meeting his first chance to face the press. Before the Fed Press conference, he will testify before Congress on February 28. These sessions are not nearly as rigorous as the financial press face-offs, with Congressional Members not as well-versed in economics or market issues as the others. Expect the global markets to be taking their measure of the man at these events. On Tuesday Powell said “We will remain alert to any developing risks to financial stability.” Equity markets interpreted this oblique statement as supportive of prices.
Markets Digesting Hotter than Expected Data While acknowledging mounting inflationary pressures, some analysts took the view that the spike monthly CPI report reflected some transitory pressures, and that the CPI is likely to decelerate in February month, before starting to accelerate again. However, keep in mind that future data will be what they will be and must be taken on their own terms. Something else to continue to monitor closely is the Average Hourly Earnings sub-component of the monthly Employment report. The Fed Open Market Committee has been hoping for inflation to stabilize at higher levels to justify the gradual “normalization” of policy already underway. In the latest week, the yield on the key 10-yr note appeared to establish itself above 2.90%. Many dealers are already targeting a move to 3.00% or above in the near future.
Key U.S. dollar Developments The past week saw a new commentary in the financial press that overseas investors in U.S. markets have been reducing their exposure to U.S. markets in light of the recent instability (correction) of equity prices. As an example, a rough calculation shows those long the S&P 500 up 21% from the start of 2017. An unhedged investor based in EUR from that date would have lost about 15% on the currency exposure for a net gain of about 6%. From the start of this year, gains in the pure S&P of 1.3% adjusted for forex would show a net loss of about 2.2%. Its no wonder that some recent foreign investors in U.S. equities could been heading for the door. Add in a little more in the way of equity losses and they could be losing on both ends of this investment.
GVI Trading Calendar. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Mon 19 Feb 2018
00:00 CN,US- Holiday
Tue 20 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday
A 10:00 US- ZEW Survey
Wed 21 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday
A All Day flash PMIs
A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 15:30 US- EIA Crude
AA 19:00 US- Fed Meeting Minutes
Thu 22 Feb 2018
A 09:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 09:30 GB- GDP
AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 23 Feb 2018
A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP
AA 13:30 CA- CPI
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