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Friday April 6, 2018 - 14:13:11 GMT
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Financial Markets See Extreme Price Volatility Amid U.S. China Confrontation

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder,

Financial Markets In A Period Of VolatilityExtreme price fluctuations, mainly in U.S. equity markets, have been having impacts elsewhere for the past few weeks. A flight of funds in and out of stocks and into fixed income markets has seen the yield on the U.S. 10-yr note dip to as low as the 2.72% area just after the markets had been starting to gird for the yield on that instrument to take out the benchmark 3.00% level. Upsetting the financial markets has been a threat of a trade war instigated by the U.S. against China due to what is perceived to be unfair practices addressed at U.S. companies via tariffs, non-tariff barriers and intellectual property rights. The approach of the Trump Administration to this issue involves a lot of bluster and noise and the uncertainties that such engenders has triggered nervousness in the business community.


So much so that new U.S. economic Advisor Kudlow and Commerce Secretary Ross were sent out mid-week to calm the markets. Kudlow stated that he feels that China will "play ball" with the U.S. The Chinese ambassador to the U.S. also indicated that "negotiations would still be our preference, but that it takes two to tango.” These comments cooled markets down by Thursday. As for the planned U.S. tariffs against China, the U.S. internal "comment period" runs until May 22. After that date, there is another six months is added on before they have to be implemented. In other words, it will be a long time until they might be put into place. Late Thursday, President Trump took another shot at China by proposing tariffs on another USD150bn in exports to the U.S. 


North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) Talks Progress As for the NAFTA negotiations, the Trump administration is hoping that an "initial" deal can be concluded as early as next week (April 13). The Canadian Foreign Minister also spoke optimistically about progress. The U.S. Ambassador to Canada, Craft, also was taking an upbeat view about progress on trade. The Trump Administration faces key mid-term elections in the fall. They are doing all they can now to “check the boxes” on previous campaign promises before that time.

Mixed March U.S. Employment Data The payroll component of the monthly jobs data missed estimates 103K vs. previous (revised) 326K. Some blamed poor weather for the miss. Average Hourly Earnings increased +0.30% as predicted and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.10%. In sum, the data were mixed while many had been hoping for a stronger report.

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 10 Apr 2018
A 12:30 GB- PPI
A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 11 Apr 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Mfg & Ind Production
AA 08:30 GB- Visible Trade
AA 12:30 US- CPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 17:00 US- 10-yr Bond Auction
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes
Thu 12 Apr 2018
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 17:00 US- 30-yr Bond Auction
Fri 13 Apr 2018
A 14:00 US- prelim Univ of Michigan Survey


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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