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Thursday June 21, 2018 - 15:04:09 GMT
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Bank Of England Decision More Hawkish Than Expected

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder,

BOE Decision Sends Hints Higher Rates Could be In Store For Future The closely-followed Bank Of England policy decision Thursday saw no change in the Repo Rate of 0.50% as widely expected. Also as forecast, there was a unanimous vote to keep total asset purchases (QE) steady at GBP435bn per month. As for the rate decision, three members voted for an immediate 25bp rate hike. The Previous vote had been 7-2. The new dissenter was Chief Economist Andy Haldane, who dissented for the first time. This marked the first dissenting vote for a hike by a Bank insider since 2011. Markets took this dissent as a sign that the bank is moving more clearly in the direction of a rate hike as early as this August.

The majority view was that the May economic projections were "broadly on track" but that there was still value in waiting and seeing. As for an end to Quantitative Ease (QE), the Monetary Policy Committee announced that it now intends not to reduce the stock of purchased assets until Bank Rate reaches around 1.50%. This compares to previous guidance of around 2.00%. They will not consider reducing QE until interest rates hit 1.50%. Importantly, Markets had not been priced for the rate signal from the Bank of England on this Thursday and they drove the GBP sharply higher vs. the EUR and USD after the decision was released. Of course future decisions will be based on future data. Nevertheless, the central bank appears to feel that the economy now is on a path that will support monetary policy normalization. That path should be GBP constructive if it is sustained.

GVI Trading. Pot ential Price Risk Scale 
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 25 June 2018

A 08:00 DE IFO Survey
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
Tue 26 Jun 2018
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 27 Jun 2018
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
A 14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 28 June 2018
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
AA 12:30 US- GDP
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 29 Jun 2018
AA 07:55 DE- Jobless
AA 09:00 EZ- HICP
A 12:30 US- PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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