Thursday September 27, 2018 - 15:52:19 GMT
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Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Draghi send Hawkish Messages
John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com
Fed Hikes Fed Funds Target Range By 25bps, As Expected On Wednesday, the Fed raised its Fed Funds target by 25bps to 2.00%-2.25% as the markets had fully priced in. This was a quarterly FOMC meeting, so it included a press conference with Fed Chair Powell. Also, the central bank has fallen into a pattern of changing interest rates only at the quarterly meetings. I suspect that this pattern could change some time soon. Chair Powell was upbeat on the economy. He said that the economy is strong, and that inflation is stable and that overall, the growth outlook remains favorable and that financial conditions are accommodative. He said fiscal policy is boosting the economy.- He expects the job market to remain strong. The Fed expects inflation to remain near 2.00% target on a sustained basis. Also, If the economy falters, the central bank can lower rates. Many in the markets were obsessed with whether they would drop the word “accommodative” from its policy statement. Chair Powell said that dropping accommodative language did not signal a change in rate path. It had been inserted an earlier time to reassure the markets that the Fed would continue to support the economy and that message is no longer required. The Fed left open the door to a December rate hike and at least three more in the new year. Under normal circumstances this should be USD positive if the economy continues to grow at its current pace.
ECB’s President Draghi Signals A Shift in Policy Focus In testimony before the EU Parliament Tuesday, the ECB’s Draghi indicated the thrust of policy would focus on a relatively vigorous pick-up in underlying inflation. The markets zeroed in on this new emphasis immediately on Monday. The 10-yr bund yield, which closed the previous week at 0.461% was 0.536% by early Wednesday. This was a significant directional move and saw forex markets buying EURUSD as a result. Otherwise, his comments were in line with the most recent ECB policy statements. Draghi said this doesn't mean that our monetary policy will cease to be accommodative. For our baseline expectations of a rising inflation path to materialize, we need to remain patient, prudent and persistent in calibrating the monetary policy stance. The rate guidance, which we reasserted back in July and also this month, actually contains two parts: first, the “through the summer of 2019” formulation is a calendar-based element, which refers to when we anticipate conditions that might warrant a first rate increase; and second, a state-dependent component, indicating our expectation that rates will remain unchanged in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. He said Regarding inflation developments, HICP inflation stood at 2.0% in August, down from 2.1% in July. Headline inflation remains somewhat higher than in the first months of the year, reflecting the strong increase in oil prices. Measures of underlying inflation remain generally muted but have been increasing from earlier lows as domestic price pressures are strengthening and broadening. In other words, while focusing on the latest inflation developments, he was cautioning it could still be an extended period of time before Eurozone official interest rates start to rise. There is thus a risk that forex markets could get far ahead of any official activity.
GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Mon 1 Oct 2018
All Day- Final Mfg PMIs
A 01:30 AU- CPI
Tue 2 Oct 2018
A 14:00 AU- RBA Decision
Wed 3 Oct 2018
All Day- Final SVC PMIs
b>A 12:15 US- ADP Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
Thu 4 Oct 2018
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US= Factory Orders
Fri 5 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 CA/US- Employment
A 12:30 CA/US- Trade
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