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Thursday November 15, 2018 - 15:10:28 GMT
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U.K. PM May Hangs On By A Thread. Fed Chair Powell Less Hawkish

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder,

Brexit Dominating Trade I hesitated to write this as the U.K. Brexit situation seems to change by the minute. It appears that PM May’s Brexit plan is dead on arrival. It would surprise me if her current plan can get through the Parliament. By trying to please everyone, the plan has pleased no one. The Brexiteers want a clean break with the EU, while the Remainers want to maintain a relationship with the EU. There is not much room for compromise on this issue. The EU is taking a very hard stance for fear that others will try to follow the U.K. out the door. If the May Brexit plan cannot be approved, we have to wonder if her position as Conservative Party leader can be maintained. The GBP has been under intense pressure all week. The current state of affairs cannot last for long.

Fed Chair Powell Takes A less Hawkish Turn In a key speech late Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell expressed some concerns about the global economic outlook but was generally upbeat about the U.S. economy although he said it could face “headwinds”in the new year. I have been expressing my concerns about growth overseas and in the U.S. here for several months. There is concern that the Fed has been too focused on policy normalization recently simply for the sake of normalization. Fed Funds have already reached a level where the central bank might be wise to pause on its policy tightening path possibly for an extended period of time until the economic outlook starts to clarify. Personally, I do not favor a rate hike in December, but concede that the central bank might have to hike so as not to send a signal that might be misinterpreted by the markets.

I have applauded Powell’s decision to add press conferences to every meeting. This decision was long overdue and will give the central bank added flexibility on monetary policy. Fed communication is an essential part of policy. It does not only communicate via interest rate adjustments. This will give the Fed Chair twice as many opportunities to speak to the markets in a structured setting. As monetary policy normalizes there will be a growing need for the central bank to keep in touch directly with the markets.

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 19 Nov 2018
No Major Data
Tue 20 Nov 2018
A 13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
Wed 21 Nov 2018
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 13:30 US- Durable Goods
A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 15:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
A 16:00 US- EIA Crude
Thu 22 Nov 2018
AA US Holiday
Fri 23 Nov 2018
AA JP- Holiday
AA All Day Flash PMIs
A 13:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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