Wednesday September 25, 2019 - 19:22:02 GMT
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Forex View: Trump Needs a Win
With President Trump under political fire as the House opens an impeachment inquiry over his actions with Ukraine, he desperately needs a win. What I mean by a win is something to distract attention and neutralize any fallout on the economy and/or equity market.
The most obvious place is a trade deal with China. This suggests he might settle for an agreement that falls shy of the so called “red lines” and settle for a deal so he can claim victory.
This assumes China sees it is now holding the stronger hand and looks for a deal on its terms. In this case, it would negotiate a deal without giving in on the major issues. If this turns out to be the approach, then it remains to be seen whether Trump, desperate for a win, throws in his cards just to get any sort of deal.
This will be on traders and investors minds as we head into October ahead of the resumption of trade negotiations. At a minimum, it would suggest a floor under equities, even if they come under political pressure and/or concerns over the economy.
For forex traders, this suggests a choppy trading will continue with one eye on politics and the other on the ebb and flow of U.S. China trade talk. In this environment the dollar has been supported but remains to be seen whether it can break out of recent ranges.
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Jsy Meisler, co-foiunder
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