Sunday October 6, 2019 - 22:22:06 GMT
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Forex View: Will Trump Cave In US-China Trade Talks
With the impeachment case inquiry heating up it is not enough for Republicans to circle the wagons to protect the president. Trump needs a distraction. Trump needs a win.
In this regard, timing may be good with China US-China trade talks due to resume. As I wrote in Forex View:Will Trump Win, a case could be made that the scales were tipping in favor of China:
The most obvious place is a trade deal with China. This suggests he might settle for an agreement that falls shy of the so called “red lines” and settle for a deal so he can claim victory.
This assumes China sees it is now holding the stronger hand and looks for a deal on its terms. In this case, it would negotiate a deal without giving in on the major issues. If this turns out to be the approach, then it remains to be seen whether Trump, desperate for a win, throws in his cards just to get any sort of deal.
So the question is will Tump, desperate for a win, cave in on his demands and let China dictate the terms just to get a deal and sell it as a victory?
I will leave the post mortem to another article should there be a break in the ice. This assumes Trump is more interested in the optics than the substance of any agreement and caves, which is far from assured but logic says it is a risk.
In any case, this will be the focus of the forex and global markets where the trade war is said to be a drag on growth.
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