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Wednesday October 30, 2019 - 00:06:58 GMT -

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Forex View: How Will the UK Election Impact GBPUSD?

The ongoing Brexit saga seems more like a soap opera than political drama as the UK struggles to find a way to leave the EU. If it wasn’t such a serious event the futile attempts by the UK to exit the EU would almost be laughable but this is no laughing matter. In any case, the call for a general election may be the start of an end game to getting a withdrawal agreement that is just phase one of Brexit.

For traders, the focus will be how sterling trades ahead of the general election and afterwards as discussed by forex traders on the Global-View Forex Forum (in reverse time order)

Kl Fs  13:56:51 GMT - 10/29/2019  
Cable to close above 1.30 this week will be a good start


london red  11:55:43 GMT - 10/29/2019  
no deal is poss from end 2020 as thats how long the transition period is if boris' wa deal is passed. if they cant pass it by end jan 2020, then they fall out then unless eu grants further extension. however u assume it passes if boris wins a majority and so cable can breathe a sigh of relief til end 2020 by which time a trader agreement on future trade must be signed. it wont as its too little time and as we approach the end date, mkt will price in no deal risk again, but u should expect eu to grant extensions ad infinitum unless eu growth picks up to at least 1.5-2%, at which point they can afford to cast uk aside. not sure they will get that kind of growth but a year is a long time.


jkt abel  11:52:19 GMT - 10/29/2019  
the picture looks better for cable? i thought only few months ago we were eyeing at below brexit low?


kl shawn  11:49:57 GMT - 10/29/2019  
ok thanks, can we somehow rule out cable parity with usd as it seems like whatever the outcome is cable will be supported too i.e. limited downside?


london red  11:41:28 GMT - 10/29/2019  
once boris wins with majority, they will price in passing of his bill which gives them a transition period to end 2020. i think in that case we can see 1.33 maybe 1.35. at that point you would want to fade as doing a trade deal will take 3-5 years and there will be a risk of no deal end 2020 which will probably only fall off at last minute as has happened with WA talks, where extensions are granted last minute. but first election risk needs to be priced in. once thats in, i think you can buy cable as i only see a boris win with libdems gaining and labour losing.


Livingston nh  11:40:19 GMT - 10/29/2019  
The only thing left is to wash out the CABLE longs who jumped on the HOPE train 2 wks ago -- then we see who has no bathing trunks on


kl shawn  11:34:13 GMT - 10/29/2019  
red, sorry i dont get it fully, so even with so much uncertainty around, we expect cable to rally after pricing the election risk?


london red  11:29:22 GMT - 10/29/2019  
in the end a tory win will probably boost cable from wherever it is after pricing in election risk as it will likely mean a boris majority and getting through his brexit deal. but from here i think the risk is yet to be priced in for the election and that will happen once the mkt flushes out the topside. yes the election is essentially a leave/remain battle with labour getting caught in crossfire with their job brexit. i suspect we can ge down to 127 and maybe 125 towards the vote after which the mkt can move higher as it does look like all that is required to pass the deal is a tory majority. end 2020 is another cliff end for the trade deal and another risk of leaving with no deal but in meantime they can price in a year of being in transition.


NY JM  11:23:46 GMT - 10/29/2019  
red, so a general election will be like a Brexit referendum and support GBPUSD in anticpation of a Tory win?


Livingston nh  11:16:35 GMT - 10/29/2019  
There are no perfect analogies but go back to SPRING and see extension/election chaos for the POUND


london red  11:14:28 GMT - 10/29/2019  
JM, polls will underprice Brexit party and Libdem risk while overprice Labour risk. For tories, they will be about right. if anything, folks want brexit done and over with and risk otherwise is of a move to brexit party/tories if anything, though i do expect libdems to win many labour seats. i would not rule out libdems beating labour to opposition.


NY JM  11:10:24 GMT - 10/29/2019  
red, given the way UK polls have performed ahead of key votes one has to be a bit wary even though they will impact trading sentiment ahead of an election.


london red  11:04:21 GMT - 10/29/2019  
boris is about 18 points clear in the polls, so it will reinforce his position as currently he has no majority. this essentially pushes uk towards a harder brexit so i would expect dealers to hedge downside risks for sterling as polls confirm the situation.

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