Monday December 2, 2019 - 17:26:01 GMT
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Forex View: Has EURUSD Bottomed?
I started to write this article when EURUSD was trading at 1.1010 (current price 1.1081) to ask whether EURUSD has seen its bottom. This follows last Friday’s failure to hold below 1.10 but there may be more to it
What caught my attention last week was a post by one of the highly respected members of the Global-View Forex Forum
london red 17:10 GMT November 28, 2019 eurusd: Reply fwiw over 100 yards of 110-112 expiries til end of year and the bulk of them in 110-111 zone, so will take a lot for euro to stay under 110
(note 1 yard = 1 billion)
This has so far proven to be invaluable information as can be seen by the following EURUSD chart courtesy of the Amazing Trader:
When you see a straight line move like this there is generally a catalyst and this can be seen by the following EURGBP chart courtesy of the Amazing Trader:
So you may ask why I posted these charts. The answer can be found in the following articles I posted over the weekend, which showed how identifying real order flow can put the odds on your side and have you trading as if you had inside information.
Forex View. How You Can Trade With Inside Information
Forex View: Trade with the Odds on Your Side
So has the EURUSD bottomed?
There is still a long way to go before yearend but for now the answer is probably yes. A good part of recent EURUSD weakness has come from EURGBP weakness in anticipation of the Conservatives securing a majority after the UK December 12 elections and PM Johnson’s Brexit plan being passed soon after.
As the chart shows, the rebound from above .8500 has eased pressure off the EURUSD and suggests keeping an eye on this cross as it will continue to influence both EURUSD and GBPUSD.
When you see these pairs move in opposite directions you can assume there is a real order flow going through the market. Keep this in mind as EURUSD would probably need to see EURGBP higher to build upward momentum. If not, this is just a swing within the range.
As for the upside, the Amazing Trader shows .1.1097 and 1.1179 (top of the current range) as key resistance levels. Note the post about options so see whether 1.11 or 1.12 is defended now that EURUSD has bottomed for the time being. Only below 1.0981 would negate this view.
As indicated in both articles (links posted above) I suggest using the Amazing Trader to identify when there are real order flows in the market.
Amazing Trader and Common Sense Forex Trading
creator The Amazing Trader and Common Sense Forex Trading
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