Tuesday June 29, 2021 - 14:57:48 GMT
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Dollar Uptrends or More Ranges?
Just when it looked like the dollar was set to build trends to the downside. it has reversed direction to test its upside. This follows failures to hold above EURUSD 1.20 and GBPUSD 1.40 as well as commodity currencies correcting lower. It also has shifted the focus from the EURUSD 2021 high at 1.2350 to its 1.1704 year-to-date low.
So, the question is whether this is just another bipolar episode or the start of fresh dollar uptrends?
This comes in a year so far where those betting on ranges and limited follow-through rather than strong and sustainable trends have been rewarded. It is also consistent with my view, as I explain in the AT Strategy Guide that the forex market tends to trade more often than not in episodes rather than trends.
What is holding back forex trends?
Traders should therefore be asking what is holding back the forex market in attempts to build sustainable trends?
As I explain in Do Fundamentals Matter Driving Forex Trends?, what complicates the current efforts to build strong trends is that economies are currently in sync, at least for expectations that growth will improve in the post-pandemic period as more people in industrialized countries get vaccinated and restrictions are lifted. One reason why markets are trading more on expectations than current relative growth differentials is that most central banks, led by the Fed, have made it clear that there is no rush to tighten monetary policy in response to rising inflationary pressures which they see as transitory.
So far, attempts to force the Fed’s hand by pushing bond yields higher have failed as that market has seen rates back off into ranges, supporting risk assets and keeping the dollar in ranges.
Not normal times
These are not normal times where markets would by now be anticipating central bank changes in monetary policy based on fundamentals. The pandemic has distorted the typical business cycle and the move out of it has major economies moving in the same direction. However, central banks are in no rush to remove the liquidity punch bowl, leaving those looking to trade on traditional fundamentals wary of getting too far ahead of themselves as the flood of liquidity continues to slosh around global markets.
Trapped in ranges
The forex market is currently trapped with technical traders, starved for strong trends, seemingly better served to find a way to identify the “real money” flows creating episodes rather than looking for ranges to break. Hopefully, this will change, but in the meantime, this is the hand we are dealt.
BUT there is hope. I can only suggest a way to identify when there are “real money” flows and strategies to use this information to trade. The way to do it is by getting access to:
The Amazing Trader and its Strategies
Feel free to contact me with any questions or comments.
Jay Meisler, co=founder global-View.com and creator of The Amazing Trader
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