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Friday July 29, 2022 - 21:31:01 GMT -

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Jul Forex Scorecard

The month of July has seen the EURUSD come under selling pressure while the dollar is trading mixed to lower elsewhere. As the table below shows, the currency ended the month on a weaker note although off its 20+ year low set earlier in the month, which was a brief move below parity. This suggests EUR weakness despite the dollar backing off on a fall in US yields as markets reassess US monetary policy expectations amid signs of a slowing economy.



June 30 close

July 29 close

% change


























*Denotes a weaker USD

The question going forward is whether the EURUSD stabilizes above parity, corrects further or makes a fresh run at its downside. A long-time and highly respected member of the Global-View Forex Forum makes a bearish case for the EUR while short-term technicals are providing some support..  

EUR swiss frank 11:22 GMT 07/28/2022 Even with Powell's 'hold on a sec' moment and subsequent what he really meant clarification, the demise of the EUR is set. Extremely disappointing as well as evident is that it couldn't even sustain a move to 1.0250, never mind real resistance levels. With or without Fed speed limit adjustments, rate differentials and expected rate differentials (yeah that rho thing) are not the drivers for moving the EUR lower at this point. They are just along for the ride. Economic underperformance, this fragmentation thing which some say could be the final nail in the coffin, and capital flows as a result of economic, political, and war consequences are the driver. It's a question of when, not if it leaves route 1.

Looking ahead

Looking ahead, the near-term fate of the EURUSD depends on whether the fx market is able to build on the recent dollar retreat. However, the tone of the EUR will likely be set by its various crosses with the test coming once summer ends and the focus shifts to the Italian elections, Ukraine war and squeeze on energy supplies, and ECB monetary policy/ In the meantime, watch EURUSD 1.02 as it will dictate whether the current move from parity has legs.

Take a look at the EURUSD daily chart and the level that would need to be taken out to confirm a bottom is in place.


Source: The Amazing Trader

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