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Friday May 19, 2023 - 10:11:28 GMT -

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Snap Poll: Odds on a US debt default.

The following are posts in the Global-View Forex Forum thread, Snap Poll: Odds on a US debt default. Note, how sentiment changed after a meeting between President Biden and congressional leaders raised optimism there would be an agreement to raise the debt ceiling, thereby averting a US default.

Mtl JP  22:22:11 GMT - 05/17/2023  
CB 19:25 I will definitely make sure to tune in to her briefing

"I think it is very important for us at every moment in time and certainly this one to see the moment in time in which we exist in our present and to be able to contextulize it ... to understand where we exist in history and in the moment as it relates not only to the past but also to the future". kamala is in charge of a/i. probably one amongst just a few who be able to beffudle it.

Mtl JP  21:52:33 GMT - 05/17/2023  
authoritative : "There is only a 32% chance"
The World Meteorological Organization is the United Nations System’s authoritative voice on Weather, Climate and Water

BUT not authoritative enough for its "predictions" to be severally and individually legally binding to the organization and the authors and peddlers and be accountable.
Geneva, 17 May 2023 (WMO) – Global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years, fuelled by heat-trapping greenhouse gases and a naturally occurring El Niño event, according to a new update issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
... . ... “A warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory,” he said. “This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared,” said Prof. Taalas. .../..

So ... with 32% chance and no way to sue for breach of professional code, how is one supposed to trade the repercussed health, food security, water management and the environment ?

Global temperatures set to reach new records in next five years

dc CB  19:25:43 GMT - 05/17/2023  

dc CB  19:21:22 GMT - 05/17/2023  
by David Stockman

Let’s first reprise the great 2011 debt ceiling showdown. On July 28, just a few days prior to when the Treasury’s borrowing authority would have been exhausted, the yield on the benchmark 10-year UST note stood at 2.98%. And despite months of heated warnings to the freshly elected GOP House majority about its duty to promptly pass a “clean” debt ceiling increase that figure was actually down considerably from the 3.36% yield of early January 2011.

That’s right. As shown below, the whole seven month ordeal on Capitol Hill about the expiring borrowing authority resulted in, well, an irregular but marked decline of the benchmark bond yield.

Why Grandma Yellen Must Be Forced To Prioritize Spending

Mtl JP  09:44:38 GMT - 05/17/2023  
interesting choice of word "seems" and "mess"

couple of jewish proverbs come to mind
* Everyone complains about a lack of money, but none complain about a lack of brains.

* If a problem can be solved with money, then it’s not a problem but a cost.

this one particularly for janet and her personality
* Don’t open a shop unless you know how to smile.

NY JM  09:21:04 GMT - 05/17/2023  
Markets should now be factoring in a debt ceiling resolution/no default so the surprise would be if talks fall apart. Note, both sides remain far apart but there seem to be areas where they can compromise as the risk of default seems too great not to find a way out of this mess.

Mtl JP  21:31:38 GMT - 05/16/2023  
CB 20:14 just because joe is traipsing the globe - and that alone - negates yellen's assertions about some "crack open the foundations upon which our financial system is built".

GVI Forex 21:29:41 GMT - 05/16/2023  
Debt Limit Live Updates: Deal ‘Possible’ but Sides Far Apart, McCarthy Says as Biden Plans to Shorten Trip

Speaker Kevin McCarthy said that the two sides were far apart but that a deal is possible by the end of the week to raise the nation’s borrowing limit. Congressional leaders met with President Biden before his trip to Japan for a G7 meeting….NYT

GVI Forex 21:22:39 GMT - 05/16/2023  
WASHINGTON (AP) — Crucial debt ceiling negotiations are still far from success, but a deal is possible by the end of the week, Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said after a brief meeting Tuesday with President Joe Biden and other congressional leaders at the White House.

Debt Ceiling: Deal Possible by End of Week, McCarthy Says; Biden Cuts Short Upcoming Foreign Trip

dc CB  21:21:00 GMT - 05/16/2023  
The story that links to the JFK limo pic in prior.
Trump's pitch for getting elected......

U.S. News
Trump Vows To Release All JFK Assassination Files If Re-Elected

“I released a lot, as you know. And I will release everything else.”

dc CB  21:00:49 GMT - 05/16/2023  
The DEBT DeFault is what is called a 'limited hangout'

In the US media world this just this week alone---the 'limited hangouts' are coming fast ad furious.

The Durham Report---- so in 2015
The CIA killed JFK-----60 Years ago
Hunter Biden---how long has this been going on
on and on and on
seems important but it's all a distraction

see: Image.
Mtl JP 16:54 GMT
riddle: can you spot

Caribbean! Rafe...  20:32:04 GMT - 05/16/2023  
Caribbean! Rafe... 20:17 GMT 05/16/2023 - My Profile

Keep up the optimism!.

If the govt defaults then they're gonna call up the oligarch's and tell them "pay all your taxes retrospectively or we're gonna send our people in after you". The next thing you know it's miami vice and hi-speed boat chases across the 7 seas... lol

Caribbean! Rafe...  20:17:28 GMT - 05/16/2023  

I'm optimistic there is gonna be no default, they will miss it by a hair, and overcome it but still no default is gonna happen.

The odds get flipped and my view is negated if one of those supporting the US default bring down judgment day on them, and just might end up standing in front of the judge in an orange jumpsuit... & If that is an impossibility then there is no default.

dc CB  20:14:29 GMT - 05/16/2023  

The T-Bill curve got crazier as no progress was apparent in the debt ceiling talks... Late-day headline that President Biden will be returning early (on Sunday) from his Asia trip suggested that nothing will be done any day soon...

dc CB  19:37:23 GMT - 05/16/2023  
"The student loan deferment program will end no later than June 30, 2023, and payments are expected to resume by Sept. 1, 2023. The amount of money we are talking about, in excess of a trillion dollars, is staggering. Student loans represent 7% of U.S. GDP." - FW

Boston  BR  17:20:21 GMT - 05/16/2023  
65/35 no default. Someone throws a Hail Mary

Boston  BR  17:19:49 GMT - 05/16/2023  
65/35 no default. Someone throws a Hail Mary

Mtl JP  16:54:43 GMT - 05/16/2023  
riddle: can you spot her ?

dc CB  16:12:08 GMT - 05/16/2023  
I'm a professor with a Nobel.
She's a grandmother(or appears to be).
What could possibly be wrong with anything we have done or will do?

We just want what's Best for you.

swiss frank  13:58:00 GMT - 05/16/2023  

default odds

LA BV  13:46:49 GMT - 05/16/2023  
52-48 no default

NY JM  12:08:07 GMT - 05/16/2023  
I will start

Normally I would say 80/20 against a default but given the political circus we find ourselves in I would place the odds at 55/45 or 60/40 against (kick the can more likely than an agreement)

GVI Forex 11:17:04 GMT - 05/16/2023  
Post your opinion



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