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hk ab 01:13 GMT 06/17/2021
LOL, it's just 2 months.......

I still have 2 more months holidays.
hk ab 05:29 GMT April 15, 2021
eur: Reply
trading plan is simple and straight forward, 1.1895 1x, 1.1930, 2x, 1.1960 4x and 1.1990 8x. After 1.200 break, will add every 50 pips up and 1.2345 stop.

That's it.

Gold is fun here, btw.

GVI Forex 23:53 GMT 06/16/2021  - My Profile
1.1985 is the next key AT level

The Amazing Trader

John Bland
GVI Forex 19:27 GMT 06/16/2021  - My Profile
As I posted on the AT forum last week

GVI Forex 14:33 GMT April 21, 2021
Day Trading Using AT: Reply
One thing John taught me is not to fade a central bank decision reaction.

His words of wisdom proved prophetic again today.

Tallinn viies 18:46 GMT 06/16/2021
bought at 1,2015 back half long euro I sold at 1,2185.
normal long again.

FOMC Statement
GVI Forex 18:40 GMT 06/16/2021  - My Profile
10 year 1.567% vs 1.485% pre decision

Tallinn viies 18:20 GMT 06/16/2021
closed long brent at 74,06.
just for a day or two. profit is always profit. right?

FOMC Statement
GVI Forex 18:19 GMT 06/16/2021  - My Profile
Press Release

June 16, 2021

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

Progress on vaccinations has reduced the spread of COVID-19 in the United States. Amid this progress and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have strengthened. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak but have shown improvement. Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations will likely continue to reduce the effects of the public health crisis on the economy, but risks to the economic outlook remain.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. In addition, the Federal Reserve will continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller.

Implementation Note issued June 16, 2021

Tallinn viies 18:19 GMT 06/16/2021
closed gbpusd.

PAR 18:11 GMT 06/16/2021
PPT buying stock index futures.

Everything is under control.

PAR 17:34 GMT 06/16/2021
European policy should not be against Russia but pro Europe. That would make a huge difference.

Fed expected to flag start of monetary policy shift debate
GVI 16:01 GMT 06/16/2021  - My Profile
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday are expected to at least signal the pending start of talks about when and how to exit from the crisis-era policies the U.S. central bank put in place at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic last year.

Fed expected to flag start of monetary policy shift debate

GVI Forex 14:29 GMT 06/16/2021  - My Profile

and now...

EURGBP up after holding the bottom of AT .8580-83 support

EURUSD up on EUR buying out of the cross

GBPUSD down a touch on offsets

I am only posting this to show how to get in touch with the forex flows (see my article in the blog)

The Amazing Trader

Event Risk Reality
GVI Forex 13:41 GMT 06/16/2021  - My Profile
4 hours and 19 minutes until lift off

Feel free to post any thoughts on trading this key event.

GVI Forex 12:30 GMT 06/16/2021  - My Profile
Using crosses as a clue to trade spot (in this case a scalp trade)

EURGBP lower

EURUSD lower out of EURGBP selling

EURGBP holds AT support at .8580/83

EURUSD follows bounce in GBPUSD as cross related selling eases (scalp trade)

All will be clear when you get access to

The Amazing Trader

PAR 11:01 GMT 06/16/2021
Full speed bond-buying till Macron is reelected.

GVI Forex 10:44 GMT 06/16/2021  - My Profile

Approaching an AT (red lines) support zone (.8580-83)

The Amazing Trader

GVI Forex 10:34 GMT 06/16/2021  - My Profile
Once again, EURGBP (down) is a driver of EURUSD (touch softer) and GBPUSD )firmer) after hotter than expected UK CPI in a market clearly on hold awaiting the Fed and as clearly shown by

The Amazing Trader

Event Risk Reality
GVI Forex 09:17 GMT 06/16/2021  - My Profile
As I posted on the At Forum yesterday

The thing about events like the FOMC is that markets will spin the outcome however it wants as there is no immediate change in policy on the horizon. So it cherry picks the words and then reacts to suit the flows.

In the past central banks seemed to relish surprising markets. Those days seem long gone. Powell has made it clear the Fed will not look to surprise the markets and prepare expectations well in advance for any change in policy. The first step would seem to be today but it is still a baby step.

So far, US bond yields showing little concern.

Tallinn viies 08:38 GMT 06/16/2021
Syd wr 08:34 GMT - daytime dreaming or consumed too much drugs?

Syd wr 08:34 GMT 06/16/2021
I hate to burst your bubble, but today will be a key reversal day. So start looking to trade the exact opposite direction to what you have in the last 5 months. Party time and easy money time is over....i just i thought i give all of your a warning 10 hours before the fact.

Tallinn viies 08:33 GMT 06/16/2021
China intervention?

last time they tried then at least crude went up another 50%.

China to release copper, aluminium and zinc reserves to stabilise prices

PAR 08:11 GMT 06/16/2021
To the moon Rocket! #ECB balance sheet hit a fresh ATH as Lagarde keeps printing press rumbling. Total assets rose by another €20.8bn to €7,700.9 despite rising inflation. ECB balance sheet now equal to 77.3% of Eurozone GDP vs Fed's 36.1%, BoE's 38.7% or BoJ's 133.4%.

Tallinn viies 08:06 GMT 06/16/2021
Kaunas DP 07:55 GMT - eurusd 1,2217 target for this week.
gbp usd made an outside day yesterday. as long as previous day high holds it may test previous day low again. this is the rational behind cable. if previous day high taken out then next previous week high. I have stop and reverse order out there.

Kaunas DP 07:55 GMT 06/16/2021

so you bet eur/usd to go UP
short gbp/usd same time
so you bet eur/gbp will FLY and gbp/usd die?

HK Kevin 07:50 GMT 06/16/2021
Similar movement of Cable as yesterday during European opening. BTW, I entered short at 1.4120 and now stop at b/e.

Tallinn viies 07:45 GMT 06/16/2021
finally transitory day is here. are they talking about talking hiking rates any time soon? seems market preparing for a mentioning tapering process may start during next 3 months.
common agreement seems to be Jackson Hole meeting in the end of august is a official day of announcing their plans.
so for today FED mission is to keep markets going higher. not let them down. 8 million "hard working americans" are still without a job. although by JOLTS report there is 9 million open jobs available currently. but printing comes first.
nasdaq100 target for this week 14 400.
brent target 76,00.
eurusd needs to take out previous week high to get things going to upside again.
good luck.

Tallinn viies 07:34 GMT 06/16/2021
yes indeed. 1.4095 should be correct.

Belgrade Knez 06:33 GMT 06/16/2021
Tallinn viies 06:23 GMT June 16, 2021
good morning,
took short cable position at 1,2095. stop and reverse at 1,2135.
target 1,2035.
did you mixed up the numbers or pair you enterred the trade?

Tallinn viies 06:23 GMT 06/16/2021
good morning,
took short cable position at 1,2095. stop and reverse at 1,2135.
target 1,2035.

The Fed
GVI 16:46 GMT 06/15/2021  - My Profile
My thanks to JP for this article

Despite the big spike in inflation, the Federal Reserve is set to signal on Wedesday that it is not going to change interest rate policy anytime soon — at least through the end of 2022, economists say.

4 things to watch for when the Fed meets Wednesday

Why Markets Move: Imbalances
GVI Forex 14:50 GMT 06/15/2021  - My Profile
During this pre-FOMC lull, I think it is worth revisiting this article I wrote in March. The logic makes looking at trading as common sense and highlights the strength of the Amazing Trader and its trading lines. With that aside, it is worth taking a good look in any case.

Trading is not rocket science. It is common sense.

In this regard, once you understand why markets move trading will not seem so daunting. It will make sense to you.

Why Markets Move: Imbalances

GVI Forex 13:27 GMT 06/15/2021  - My Profile
Wake up!

There is still 6 days to the official start of summer!

sell gold
kl fs 11:10 GMT 06/15/2021
1870-80 is a sell zone

Tallinn viies 10:20 GMT 06/15/2021
NIO founder and CEO William Li believes electric vehicle sales in China could reach 90% by 2030, reports cnEVpost.

Get in Touch With the Forex Glow
GVI Forex 09:50 GMT 06/15/2021  - My Profile

See chart to see why EURUSD topped out

This is a follow-up to the article just posted, Trading Rotation in the Forex Market where I illustrate how rotation involving a cross flow can influence the market.  Take a look at what happens next, 

Get in Touch With the Forex Flows

buy usdchf
kl shawn 09:25 GMT 06/15/2021
looks like it is turning on daily...or is it too early?

Trading Rotation in the Forex Market
GVI Forex 09:06 GMT 06/15/2021  - My Profile
And GBPUSD selling takes over once EURUSD topped ours (good call Wfak) I will post a chart shortly.

GBPUSD 14085
Amman wfakhoury 09:03 GMT 06/15/2021
Amman wfakhoury 12:55 GMT 06/14/2021
now 14108.
In Sell mode.
14085 will be reached.
any rise above 14114 will return to it.
14085 Reached

Trading Rotation in the Forex Market
GVI Forex Blog 07:37 GMT 06/15/2021


This is a reprint of an article I posted at the end of last year. I am posting it again to highlight the trading clues you can get by identifying the flows driving the price action and what side is more easily absorbed.  

In this regard, note the current price action today where EURGBP is moving higher  pulling EURUSD up while GBPUSD trades slightly softer as the market is currently having more difficulty absorbing the EUR buying side of the flow. Scroll to the bottom of this article to see a short video illustrating this point.

Trading Rotation in the Forex Market

Tallinn viies 06:33 GMT 06/15/2021
good morning,
euro took out today previous inside day high. bullish sign.
target to day 1,2170-75.
to end this correction mode lower euro needs to take out previous week high at 1,2217-18.
still hoping to get back my half sold long euro near 200 day sma.

Do not read too much into this months bond rally: it doesnt mean markets see inflation receding
GVI Forex 00:28 GMT 06/15/2021  - My Profile
Thanks to JP for this

.. maybe ..
what degree of confidence is that ?
in the meantime , fwiw:
" ‘Do not read too much into this month’s bond rally’: it doesn’t mean markets see inflation receding"

“We advise clients to stay in reflation, reopening, inflation and value trades that we expect to be boosted by a summer reopening of the global economy.”

says JPMorgan

Calm before the storm
GVI Forex 20:56 GMT 06/14/2021  - My Profile
Tight ranges and quiet here suggest markets on hold until Wednesday’s Fed meeting

Amman wfakhoury 14:12 GMT 06/14/2021
Gold in Sell mode.
Scalp above 1864 ..any rise will return to it.

GBPUSD 14085
Amman wfakhoury 13:41 GMT 06/14/2021
Scalp above 14115

GBPUSD 14085
Amman wfakhoury 12:55 GMT 06/14/2021
now 14108.
In Sell mode.
14085 will be reached.
any rise above 14114 will return to it.

sell gold
Pasig evan 12:46 GMT 06/14/2021
Entry: Target: Stop:

How about Silver next supports?

sell gold
GVI Forex 12:21 GMT 06/14/2021  - My Profile
XAUUSD entering the 1843-51 zone

USD is garbage
haifa ac 12:21 GMT 06/14/2021  - My Profile
"Central Kwun 01:08 GMT 06/11/2021
Buy Gold
Entry: 1892 Target: Stop: 1862

LOL, now is 1899, still make profit"

Now is 1850. That LOL was uncalled for.

sell gold
GVI Forex 11:18 GMT 06/14/2021  - My Profile

4-hour XAUUSD chart. Note the next (red line) AT support/target zone. Let me know if you want other time frame charts posted.

The Amazing Trader

sell euro
manila tom 10:39 GMT 06/14/2021
Entry: Target: Stop:

selling area 12120-40, stop above 12170, target open

Next Page

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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