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Mtl JP 07:28 GMT 08/10/2022  - My Profile
CRUDE 89.40
IF puppy does not hold S here
3 more down-bux come trgt radar

Mtl JP 06:59 GMT 08/10/2022  - My Profile
DLRx 106.17
on deck today
Evans & Kashkari

Winter in Germany
Belgrade Knez 06:48 GMT 08/10/2022
-Dad, why is it cold in our house?
-Because it's war, son.
-Did anyone attack us?
-No, Russia invaded Ukraine.
-But why is cold in here?
-Because we imposed sanctions on Russia.
-So the Russian can feel bad.
-Dad, are we Russian?

A third of Brits face poverty with energy bills set to hit $5,000
dc CB 22:27 GMT 08/09/2022
so who is the new Prime Minister......
Remember Missy May----

Lordy lordy, whtf would want that job now...a real career killer.

dc CB 21:05 GMT 08/09/2022

Crude +2.156mm (-400k exp)

Cushing -627k

Gasoline +910k

Distillates 1.376mm

dc CB 19:29 GMT 08/09/2022
The Vibes in the Economy Are … Weird. Really Weird.
Guest Essay----Kyla Scanlon
"There is no recession yet. Right now we are in a 'vibe-cession' of sorts"
Here is the author's companion video explaining the Vibe-Cession to readers
Ms. Scanlon is a researcher, podcaster, youtube educator and financial influencer who writes a newsletter about the economy and markets. more interesting insights about her here.

"The 24 year-old is the coolest econ nerd on the internet, thanks to her daily TikTok and Instagram videos that synthesize financial news in under a minute. She is determined to reshape financial education. The innovative, entertaining content creator, who began trading options at age 16, has a platform in the works she describes as “a financial playground.” It will be a destination where people can interact and “play with content and different ideas,” she allows in an interview with ThinkAdvisor.. "I’m still building it — so I don’t want to give too much away!” she says. If the platform is anything like her amusing, instructive video skits on social media, countless folks will be eager to come out and play. The social media influencer has more than 67,400 followers on Twitter and 98,100 TikTok fans"-

Mtl JP 18:49 GMT 08/09/2022  - My Profile
corr.: below60 40 and then 00

Mtl JP 18:33 GMT 08/09/2022  - My Profile
GBP 1.2068
circa 40K/yr pound schoolteacher screaming civil dis-obedience already ?
maybe because IMF does not consider her as one of the have-nots worthy of selective govvy subsidy instructions ?

1.2065 should be S
below 60 and then 00

or maybe euro will sympathy-heave next instead of the pound

dc CB 18:06 GMT 08/09/2022
The internals were also solid with Indirects awarded 63.1% of the auction, the highest since February, and obviously well above the six-auction average of 58.5.

A third of Brits face poverty with energy bills set to hit $5,000
dc CB 17:41 GMT 08/09/2022
"Revolution Has Begun": 75,000 Brits To Stop Paying Power Bills Amid Inflation Storm

"75,000 people have pledged to strike on October 1st! If the government & energy companies refuse to act then ordinary people will! Together we can enforce a fair price and affordable energy for all," tweeted "Don't Pay UK," an anonymous group spearheading the effort to have more than one million Brits boycott paying their power bill by Oct. 1.

🔥 75,000 people have pledged to strike on October 1st!

If the government & energy companies refuse to act then ordinary people will!

Together we can enforce a fair price and affordable energy for all. #dontpayuk
— Don't Pay. (@dontpayuk) August 5, 2022

A third of Brits face poverty with energy bills set to hit $5,000
GVI 17:18 GMT 08/09/2022
London (CNN Business)Nearly one third of households in the United Kingdom will face poverty this winter after paying energy bills that are set to soar again in January, campaigners say.

A third of Brits face poverty with energy bills set to hit $5,000

Mtl JP 14:10 GMT 08/09/2022  - My Profile
GBP 1.2110
clueless & whimpi
earlier BoE's Ramsden - MSc Economics - "For me personally, I do think it's more likely than not that we will have to raise Bank Rate further. But I haven't reached a firm decision on that," via rtrs

tks sir david

PAR 13:49 GMT 08/09/2022
The idea that inflation will eventually decline is supporting stocks.

Israel MacroMicro 13:39 GMT 08/09/2022
opened long NQ @ 13040

for 18/30 hours from now

let's see

PAR 12:17 GMT 08/09/2022
08/08/2022Patrick Barron

The following is a plea to Germany—the war is over and has been for three-quarters of a century. It's time to stop prostrating yourself for the supposed "good" of Europe. It's time to take complete control of your domestic and foreign policy, without interference from haughty, busybody world elites, and do what is best for yourself. You will be pleasantly surprised that what is good for yourself is also good for your neighbors and the world.

Here are four failed policies that must be ended:

The green energy projects.
Membership in the European Monetary Union (EMU).
Membership in the European Union.
Membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and economic sanctions against Russia.
None of these policies are working. As American humorist and political sage Will Rogers said, “If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.”


Mtl JP 11:38 GMT 08/09/2022  - My Profile
GBP 1.21
UK GDP on Friday
players likely skeptical about Bailey BoE's inflation fighting rate-hiking virility - also betting on his wimpi-ness vs politicians

R 1.2125
S 1.2040, 1.2000 and lower

United States Nfib Business Optimism Index
PAR 10:13 GMT 08/09/2022
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the United States edged higher to 89.9 in July of 2022 from 89.5 in June which was the lowest reading since January 2013.

It is the first increase in the index so far this year, although it still points to a subdued level of confidence, well below the historical average of 98. 37% of business owners reported that inflation was their most important problem and 49% had job openings they could not fill.

"The uncertainty in the small business sector is climbing again as owners continue to manage historic inflation, labor shortages, and supply chain disruptions," William Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist said. source: National Federation of Independent Business

GVI Forex 06:50 GMT 08/09/2022  - My Profile
A look at the day ahead in markets from Alun John

The lull before U.S. inflation data affords a moment to reflect on a darkening geopolitical backdrop.

MORNING BID-Geopolitics lurks beneath markets' still waters

PAR 06:34 GMT 08/09/2022
Italian government bonds under increased pressure

After the rating agency Moody's lowered the outlook for Italy's credit rating (Baa3) to negative at the end of last week, yields on Italian government bonds rose at the beginning of the week.

Ten-year government bonds yielded over 3% at times. In the run-up to the parliamentary elections scheduled for September 25, Italy is thus threatened with a fall into the “junk” range.

PAR 06:28 GMT 08/09/2022
Markets looking for a share buyback bonanza over the coming months as corporate America wants to avoid the new tax.

Corporate America is share buyback champion of the world.

When new chip factories need to be built corporate America turns to the US taxpayers.

When electric vehicles need to be sold corporate America turns to the US taxpayer.

When airlines are in trouble they turn to the US taxpayer.

What happened to free markets and the liberal economy? Dead and buried?

Mtl JP 18:20 GMT 08/08/2022  - My Profile
EURO 1.0190
slinking back under 1.02
Sup (and trgt): 1.0165-1.0155

Mtl JP 15:52 GMT 08/08/2022  - My Profile
a win is a win
A New York Fed survey showed
* A New York Fed survey showed that respondents in July expected inflation to run at a 6.2% pace over the next year and a 3.2% rate for the next three years.

* That marks a big drop-off from the respective 6.8% and 3.6% results from the June survey.

* Expectations for food increases fell at the fastest rate in survey history and the second-fastest for gasoline prices.

Consumers’ expectations of future inflation decreased significantly in win for the Federal Reserve - jeff cox

GBPUSD 12130
Amman wfakhoury 15:06 GMT 08/08/2022
I started post signals in another Forum

Wasef M. Fakhoury

· ‏٦ أغسطس‏، الساعة ‏١١:٤٨ ص‏ ·
Hello everyone
I am new here, and I am a pro. trader. I am the only one who confirms the next price within 24-36 hrs..
My signal for GBPUSD is 12130 confirmed and will be reached.
Price now 12066

Mtl JP 13:42 GMT 08/08/2022  - My Profile
EURO 1.0204
currently puppy s in 1.0220 - 1.0184 range
would need to bust N of 1.0225 and hold for more UP

PAR 11:46 GMT 08/08/2022

The Wealthy

None of the billions of dollars in tax increases Democrats floated a year ago on high-earning Americans made it into the final version of the bill, including proposals to double the capital gains rate, increase taxes on inheritances and levy a surcharge on millionaires. Despite rhetoric from Democrats that they wanted the richest Americans to pay much more, there wasn’t consensus within the party to pass a bill that raises levies on the 1%.

Private Equity

Private equity fund managers were able to dodge a tax increase that Senator Joe Manchin wanted, but fellow moderate Democrat Senator Kyrsten Sinema insisted be taken out of the bill. Manchin had wanted to narrow a tax break known as carried interest, that allows fund managers to pay lower capital gains rates on their earnings. The private equity industry was able to gain an additional win shortly before the final passage of the bill when a handful of Democrats broke with their party to vote on a Republican amendment that created a carveout for private equity-owned companies in the corporate minimum tax.


Mtl JP 11:16 GMT 08/08/2022  - My Profile

DLRx 106.18-ish
ahead of NY session
dollar taking slight breather after friday's rally

Mtl JP 10:51 GMT 08/08/2022  - My Profile

daly's "50bps absolutely"
"risk" players
maybe the FEDs will have to wheel out 100bps+ theoreticians
IF they want to stop laughter on w/street

GVI Forex 08:53 GMT 08/08/2022  - My Profile
A look at the day ahead in markets from Anshuman Daga

Lingering worries about a big U.S. slowdown were blown away last Friday after July payrolls data smashed market expectations.

MORNING BID-Just an illusion

Mtl JP 22:40 GMT 08/07/2022  - My Profile
mary "$8,000/week salary" daly
half a percent
"MARGARET BRENNAN: So it would still be appropriate to raise rates in September by half a percent?

DALY: Absolutely. And we need to be data dependent. It could. We need to leave our minds open. We have two more inflation reports coming out, another jobs report. We continue to collect all the information from the context we talk to you to see how this is working its way through the economy. But you mentioned, you know, wage growth a little bit above 5% inflation. Last print at 9.1%. Americans are losing ground every day. So the focus has to be on bringing inflation down."

Aug. 7, 2022, on "Face the Nation."

Mtl JP 22:01 GMT 08/07/2022  - My Profile
biden is now healed and according to his doc O’Connor “He will safely return to public engagement and presidential travel”

Mohamed's "collateral damage" worry:
“What I'm most worried about ... is the collateral damage that's gonna be associated with inflation coming down because the Fed has been so late in responding,” El-Erian Aug 7th

Between the FED gang and Bond types appears to be biggly serious communication problem: bond guys are talking n pricing a pivot while the FED gang is still peddling its committed to fighting inflation mushroom feeding mixture propaganda

Asserts CNN's Julia Horowitz that
The market read the Federal Reserve all wrong
but for some reason , unlike jeff cox, neglected to give mention to Fed Governor Michelle Bowman (BS in advertising and journalism from the University of Kansas and a JD from the Washburn University School of Law)

* Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she supports the central bank’s recent 0.75 percentage point rate increases and believes they should continue until inflation is subdued.

* “My view is that similarly sized increases should be on the table until we see inflation declining in a consistent, meaningful, and lasting way,” she added in a speech Saturday.

* "Markets are anticipating a third straight big increase when the central bank meets again in September.

"my view" ... my donkey
but as long as the FEDs will continue to attempt to prevail over bond types and try to re-align then by sending out corrective smoke signals we should see volatility.

Who will win ? For the FED to "win" they ll have to wheel out higher caliber than bowman.

Fed Governor Bowman sees ‘similarly sized’ rate hikes ahead after three-quarter point moves

dc CB 17:28 GMT 08/07/2022
On Friday afternoon, Tesla announced the following:

Tesla, Inc. (“Tesla”) announced today that the Board of Directors has approved and declared a three-for-one split of Tesla’s common stock in the form of a stock dividend to make stock ownership more accessible to employees and investors. Each stockholder of record on August 17, 2022 will receive a dividend of two additional shares of common stock for each then-held share, to be distributed after close of trading on August 24, 2022. Trading will begin on a stock split-adjusted basis on August 25, 2022.

The last day to get in before the stock split will be August 17, 2022.

dc CB 15:09 GMT 08/07/2022
It is very simple: if you’d ask most citizens of whichever EU country if they are willing to risk being unable to feed and heat their children in order to support Ukraine and Zelensky, they would say NO. Hell no! But that is what they’re all being pushed towards.

This is not due to some inevitable market mechanism, it’s because the west decided to halt all Russian imports after the latter’s Special Military Operation in Ukraine. All western leaders found that reason enough to cut all, or nearly all, imports from Russia. Gas, oil, fertilizer, food. Essentials.

The WEF makes sure no western leader gets elected who is not a member of their club. There’s only one path to power these days.

“Leaders” like Trudeau and Rutte think they have this under control, that they can make the farmers do what their governments say they must, if need be with assistance from police or even the army.

But you cannot send cops and soldiers against your farmers, because 1) they make your food, 2) the people support them, 3) they have a centuries-old democratic right to be farmers, and 4) they don’t take no sh*t for an answer.

Winter of Anger

Mtl JP 10:15 GMT 08/07/2022  - My Profile
peasants will pay. more.
rewarding poor choices made by their gov'ts

05 Aug 2022 Moody’s downgraded the outlook for economies of
Italy, Czech Republic and Slovakia
to ‘negative’

Moody's Rating Action

Mtl JP 20:27 GMT 08/05/2022  - My Profile

what IF , especially over the week-end , there is a Crisis

Israel MacroMicro 20:26 GMT 08/05/2022

pass the test of being sober and my neighbor to consider letting you to walk his dog, better than sticking your tongue in old Roman arses. enjoy your weekend licker :)

dc CB 20:14 GMT 08/05/2022
---about about the Roman empire---

that was my reference. humans never change, only their names/places

Israel Launches "Pre-emptive" Airstrikes On Gaza, Vowing To Wipe Out Islamic Jihad....Border tensions soared after Monday's brutal arrest of Islamic Jihad commander...

Chinese Ambassador Called To White House After Overnight Sanctions: "We Do Not Want A Crisis"

______________leave you all with a tune.

The Envoy- live 1982

Israel MacroMicro 20:00 GMT 08/05/2022
Joey cannot afford the El-Erian medication, as it makes more money than god :)

GVI Forex 19:32 GMT 08/05/2022  - My Profile
if bond yields don’t lie then what does an inverted yield curve 2-10) at 40 bps tell us?


dc CB 19:11 GMT 08/05/2022
what "medication" Mohamed is advising

obviously the stuff that Joey takes.

Israel MacroMicro 18:54 GMT 08/05/2022
frank, I can see your reasoning for bonds not being a liar. let us hope your holding of bonds is much lower than 40% of your assets.

what is your case about Karine Jean-Pierre, a liar or not?

PAR, about the Roman empire, I assume that you, Mr. Meisler and JP are raising memories from your youth during that era. you three went long way together :)

have a great weekend all

Mtl JP 18:51 GMT 08/05/2022  - My Profile
10-yr 2.834%
cognitive trap - apparently happens even to "experts"
lots and lots will have been said over the next short while
about advisor / consultant to the FED Mohamed's assertion that it ..."got itself into a cognitive trap"

the next trading theme will be ...
what "medication" Mohamed is advising to cure the affliction AND will the FEDs swallow AND act on it.

Nancy visits Taiwan
dc CB 18:15 GMT 08/05/2022
D’Alesandro family portrait 1947

Nancy visits Taiwan
dc CB 18:11 GMT 08/05/2022

Little Nancy Pelosi, nee D'alesandro

'you've come a long way baby' Virginia Slims ad slogan (the ciggy made esp for women). Edward Bernays's maketing campaign.

Nancy visits Taiwan
dc CB 18:05 GMT 08/05/2022
"After China’s actions overnight, we summoned Ambassador Qin Gang to the White House to démarche him about the PRC’s provocative actions," White House national security spokesman John Kirby confirmed to the The Washington Post.

According to a Bloomberg report..........

"But behind the scenes, officials in President Joe Biden’s administration were fuming at her insistence on using the trip as a capstone for her career at a moment of highly delicate relations with Beijing,"

Chinese Ambassador Called To White House After Overnight Sanctions: "We Do Not Want A Crisis"

US Unemployment
Mtl JP 18:02 GMT 08/05/2022  - My Profile
all that is missing is a political elitist to shower praise on the salt-of-the-earth peasants' work ethic

à la "You work three jobs? Uniquely American, isn't it? I mean, that is fantastic that you're doing that." W. Bush, to a divorced mother of three, Omaha, Nebraska, Feb. 4, 2005"

US Unemployment
dc CB 17:22 GMT 08/05/2022
Zero Hedge takes a closer look.

Something very odd emerges for the second month in a row when looking at the July payrolls report.

Recall last month we showed that a stark divergence had opened between the Household and Establishment surveys that make up the monthly jobs report, and since March the former was sliding while the latter was rising every single month.
lookin' good for Biden et al
Manny I Pulation

Multiple Jobholders Hit All Time High As Unexplained 1.8 Million Jobs Gap Emerges

Mtl JP 17:16 GMT 08/05/2022  - My Profile
bonds do not lie
who does ?

swiss frank 16:45 GMT 08/05/2022
What if the Fed manages to thread the needle here? Meaning:
- Raise rates enough so all those old people leaving the work force will have some interest income/pensions.
- Reduce consumer inflation (food, energy, housing).
- Wage growth (which remember not too long ago they were trying to poke along) comes not too hot, not too cold, but just right.
- While labor market stays strong.
- Supply chain issues find a new balance.
- And markets get comfortable with growth outlooks and valuations.

Bonds don't lie.

Mtl JP 16:34 GMT 08/05/2022  - My Profile
politician mocking the FED banker
a good idea ?
Biden Touts Jobs Report as White House Insists Economy Strong
President Joe Biden said the unemployment rate falling to pre-pandemic lows was “the result of my economic plan” as the White House sought credit for surging jobs gains that bolstered the president’s insistence the nation has not fallen into recession.

Biden feels well, still tests positive for COVID-19 - doctor
U.S. President Joe Biden continues to feel "very well" while still testing positive for COVID-19, the White House physician said on Friday.
... and will continue to follow "strict isolation measures." - foxnews

The #jobs report is good news for the #WhiteHouse, and will be seen as validating their policy approach.
A few blocks away at the #Fed, however, it’s neither. Instead, it’s consistent with lagging policy and a central bank that’s on the wrong side of ongoing analytical debates.

PAR 16:20 GMT 08/05/2022
Since the Roman Empire inflation is used to make the people poor and the rulers rich.

Next Page

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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