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PAR 21:10 GMT 12/06/2023
If Lagarde's son had not listened to his maman's advise and
kept his Bitcoins he would sitting on a nice profit.

San Francisco MONEDGE 19:47 GMT 12/06/2023  - My Profile
Highly aggressive but we are lightly preferring the buy side of this pair now near 6540-550 and with no trouble reversing course, if only for minor gains. Overall we are more interested in the sell side higher.

Forex SciFi
GVI Forex 18:25 GMT 12/06/2023  - My Profile
What would you say if I told you that US yields would tumble and the dollar would close firmer?

Forex Scifi?

San Francisco MONEDGE 18:06 GMT 12/06/2023  - My Profile
See limited sell interest around 2050, our overall bias posted Saturday remains on the buy side.

PAR 17:16 GMT 12/06/2023
COP28 is more luxurious and lucrative for big business and tycoons.

PAR 17:09 GMT 12/06/2023

In late September, Zimbabwe’s environment minister signed away control over a staggering amount of land — almost 20% of his country — to a little-known foreign company. Blue Carbon was a small, new outfit, not even a year old, but its chief was no fledgling entrepreneur: he was an Emirati royal whose family had ruled Dubai for 190 years, flush with oil money.

The Dubai-based Blue Carbon has secured forested land nearly equivalent to the size of the United Kingdom across five African nations to run projects to conserve forests that might otherwise be logged, preventing huge amounts of planet-heating carbon dioxide, or CO2, from entering the atmosphere.

Blue Carbon can then use that conservation to create carbon credits to sell to companies and governments to “offset” the climate pollution they generate while they continue to burn planet-warming fossil fuels.

The flurry of forest conservation deals with Zimbabwe, Zambia, Kenya, Liberia and Tanzania were announced in the months ahead of the annual United Nations’ COP28 climate summit, being hosted this year in December by the United Arab Emirates. But according to several analysts and climate advocates CNN spoke with for this story, these conservation deals are the latest attempt by the petrostate to use green initiatives as a smokescreen for its plans to continue pumping fossil fuels.

San Francisco MONEDGE 17:06 GMT 12/06/2023  - My Profile
Probabilities improving just a bit for Usd/Chf to hold around 1.8730 at present, even if temporary.

dc CB 16:51 GMT 12/06/2023
Where that 7.5 Billion $$$$ go?
Good luck with that treasure hunt.
Grifters rejoice

President Joe Biden's 2021 infrastructure bill boasts a $7.5 billion investment in electric vehicle (EV) chargers, and his administration insists the country is "on track" to install over a million public chargers by the end of the decade—but reports indicate that so far not a single one has actually been built.

Zero Public EV Chargers Built Since Congress Approved $7.5 Billion To Expand Network

dc CB 16:42 GMT 12/06/2023
Fun with Numbers: Oil Day bets
Crude -4.63mm (-1.00mm exp) - biggest draw in 3 months
Cushing +1.83mm
Gasoline +5.42mm (+700k exp)
Distillates +1.27mm (+1.00mm exp)

For the second week in a row, the Biden admin added crude to the SPR (+330k barrels)...

PAR 16:15 GMT 12/06/2023
Cacophony at the ECB.

It starts to look like a fish market.

San Francisco Monedge 15:22 GMT 12/06/2023  - My Profile
We prefer lightly testing the sell side of Eur/Usd near the figure at the moment with zero reluctance to reverse bias.

GVI Forex 14:57 GMT 12/06/2023  - My Profile
BoC on deck

San Francisco Monedge 14:22 GMT 12/06/2023  - My Profile
Come consolidation briefly expected any time now again in Usd/Jpy.

San Francisco Monedge 12:19 GMT 12/06/2023  - My Profile
Usd/Jpy. We have been short only in very early US since 147.47. Overall preference yesterday was long.

Fundamentals entering today's data releases seems somewhat balanced overall. Labor participation rate remains historically low but other data such as job availability has remained supportive. Yields still favor the US with the recent declines.

Dxy has to close below 103.90 for any decline of substance to materialize in our model.

GVI Forex 12:07 GMT 12/06/2023  - My Profile
EURJPY yo/yo

Down then Up then down

GVI Forex 10:31 GMT 12/06/2023  - My Profile
Event risks

ADP - often see a reaction even though it is not a good indicator if NFP

BoC rate decision (CAD weaker ahead of it)

PAR 07:26 GMT 12/06/2023
ECB comments creating currency depreciation and bond asset bubble which will again lead to:


dc CB 01:02 GMT 12/06/2023
Crude +594k (-1.00mm exp)
Cushing +4.28mm - biggest build since April 2020
Gasoline +2.83mm (+700k exp)
Distillates +890k (+1.00mm exp)

Another week, another set of across-the-board inventory builds with Cushing stocks soaring...

here's that word/phrase again____WTI was hovering at mid-November intraday lows around $72.40 ahead of the data and extended losses after the**** unexpected**** build...

(The Grifter's Word of the Week)

dc CB 00:48 GMT 12/06/2023
great headline:
The Canary Just Died: Sudden Spike In SOFR Hints At Mounting Reserve Shortage, Early Restart Of QE

"We expect to see more upward pressure on repo in the months ahead. Further upward repo pressure may reflect limited amounts of excess cash in the system and raise the risks of an early end to Fed QT."


San Francisco MONEDGE 22:20 GMT 12/05/2023  - My Profile
The yield on the US 10yr Note hit its lowest level since August 31st in todays session.

Caribbean! Rafe... 20:10 GMT 12/05/2023  - My Profile
fwiw... 5.75% is still a valid call until spring-sprong season.

oil @ 115 is also valid till about the same time.

SPR is being refueled a few buckets at a time, not enough motorists pulling up with loaded trucks. Nowadays, they only donate 1 or 2 drums each...

Nifty 50
Caribbean! Rafe... 19:48 GMT 12/05/2023  - My Profile
While checking out the charts, I detected a stampede in progress (SIP) in the indian markets... banks.. auto.. IT etc basically all across the board. in 98% of my model signals each of them picked it up separately.

dc CB 19:46 GMT 12/05/2023
Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

The depth of expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve is close to being consistent with a recession.

If a contraction is on the cards (unlikely in the near term), stocks and credit are mispriced. Otherwise short-term rates now look too low for a soft-landing scenario.........................................................
Favorable liquidity conditions are poised to continue to provide a tailwind for risk assets, implicitly lowering rates through a further easing in financial conditions.

There is thus an increasing chance the Fed will feel compelled to hike rates again to prevent a re-acceleration in inflation.

So taking my last post and this one----------cud Fri be black swandive time----
File Under 'Unexpected' and check back later,

FED Rate-Cut Pricing Will Soon Need A Recession To Be Justified

Mtl JP 19:41 GMT 12/05/2023  - My Profile
EUR0 1.0781
currently like turd frozen in early winter grass.

still I starting to take a bias as I expect the dlr to decline in dec

I think dlrx at 1o4 is getting rich

dc CB 19:36 GMT 12/05/2023
Stock Buybacks Hit All-Time High In November, But Enter "Blackout Period" This Friday

The biggest buyer of stocks in November (along with CTAs) goes quiet this Friday and will not return until late January.


Nifty 50
Caribbean! Rafe... 19:34 GMT 12/05/2023  - My Profile
Caribbean! Rafe... 19:15 GMT October 31, 2023

Yesterday/Monday Nifty did a 3 in 1 combo... gapped 418 points... hit the target 20608... closed above target (see my 19:15).

Stock markets surge over 2 pc to hit lifetime highs; Sensex nears 69k-mark, Nifty breaches 20,500

The broader Nifty also climbed 418.90 points, or 2.07 per cent, to hit its all-time closing high of 20,686.80. On the 50-stock benchmark Nifty, 44 closed with gains.

I posted the targets 1 - 1/2 month ahead of time...

Bangkok KC 17:42 GMT 12/05/2023
1st long @0.8750
2nd long @0.8690(if see)
Take profit around 0.9200

Bangkok KC 17:37 GMT 12/05/2023
1st short @1.2600, 2nd short @1.2700(if see) , Take profit somewhere below 1.2000

Mtl JP 17:30 GMT 12/05/2023  - My Profile
EURO 1.0796 AS I type
uncanny LoD sofar today
got S right on its Pivot 1

IF pupy closes N of 1.08 I d be inclined to call a turn in dlr's decline
and eurdlr's drive to 1.0780-ish just a petered-out correction

Mtl JP 17:25 GMT 12/05/2023  - My Profile
DLRx 103.88
on my daily chart
continues to hover N of its 200day

katching uo on yakkers ...
schanbel made me - almost - gag with her "tail between legs" (i.e dovish) yak , noramlly know for rather hawkish blabla.

re the DLR: I am not exactly enthusiastic about it running much higher, I am expecting the puppy to pull back some

don't forget two more jobs related releases this week on deck still

San Francisco Monedge 16:12 GMT 12/05/2023  - My Profile
CB - So was I. Funny enough the nuns were generally right though with varying degrees of hell dependent on severity of life-lesson infraction.

dc CB 16:07 GMT 12/05/2023
raised a catholic and taught by nuns in grade school----the overriding lesson was---since we are telling you what to do, you have a choice to not do it---but since You Have Been Informed---if you don't You Will Burn Eternally in the Fires of Hell.
You had your chance.

dc CB 16:02 GMT 12/05/2023
The problem is that any discussion---Debate--is no longer premitted----if either side (as if there were only two sides!) trys ---- screaming mobs emerge drowning out any chance of that. It's a very effective tactic.

San Francisco Monedge 15:53 GMT 12/05/2023  - My Profile
CB - If the world can amplify the ability to produce non-carbon production without the use of carbon based materials then perhaps there is some daylight in the cause.

dc CB 15:37 GMT 12/05/2023
excuse the double tap paste....oops

dc CB 15:34 GMT 12/05/2023
However a few COPs ago this would have been considered HERESY----burn 'em at the stake level heresy.....
Just as Pope Alexander VI, aka Rodrigo de Borja-The Borgia Pope) burned Girolamo Savonarola. Back when Catholicism defined the world.

****Speaking at the summit, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry said the world can't achieve "net zero" emissions without building new reactors.****

"We are not making the argument that this is absolutely going to be the sweeping alternative to every other energy source," Mr. Kerry said during a launch ceremony.

"But ... you can't get to net zero 2050 without some nuclear, just as you can't get there without some use of carbon capture, utilization, and storage."

Speaking at the summit, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry said the world can't achieve "net zero" emissions without building new reactors.

"We are not making the argument that this is absolutely going to be the sweeping alternative to every other energy source," Mr. Kerry said during a launch ceremony.

"But ... you can't get to net zero 2050 without some nuclear, just as you can't get there without some use of carbon capture, utilization, and storage."

The United States and 21 other countries from four continents signed a pledge at the United Nations climate summit on Dec. 2 to triple global nuclear energy capacity by 2050 from the levels recorded in 2020.

San Francisco Monedge 15:28 GMT 12/05/2023  - My Profile
On the whole, other than oil (which is buying instability), today in the US does not look like much of a risk on environment.

GVI Forex 15:02 GMT 12/05/2023  - My Profile
ISM services beats and prices still elevated but JOLTS falls more than expected

Market reacting to the latter.

GVI Forex 14:28 GMT 12/05/2023  - My Profile
Entry: Target: Stop:

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

As the S&P500 (.SPX) stalled on Monday at its high for the year, taking a breather from last week's 'peak rates' rally, smaller U.S. stocks picked up the baton and are playing catchup into the yearend.

Morning Bid: Small caps pick up baton, China rating hit

San Francisco Monedge 14:20 GMT 12/05/2023  - My Profile
Dollar Index remains a buy as long as it holds 103.60 holds in our model. Perhaps the ECB official taking further rate hikes off of the table helps to support that condition.

GVI Forex 13:47 GMT 12/05/2023  - My Profile
US yields down (10 year 4.207%)

GVI Forex 13:33 GMT 12/05/2023  - My Profile
Entry: Target: Stop:

Key event riisks

ISM services and JOLTS

GVI Forex 10:21 GMT 12/05/2023  - My Profile
FRANKFURT, Dec 5 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank can take further interest rate hikes off the table given a "remarkable" fall in inflation and policymakers should not guide for rates to remain steady through mid-2024, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel told Reuters.

Exclusive: ECB hawk Schnabel scraps more rate hikes after 'remarkable' inflation drop

PAR 07:53 GMT 12/05/2023
While all politicians and European bureaucrats are discussing the most extreme carbon trading programs in sunny Dubai.

Europe is facing a normal winter with snow, ice, and cold.

European governments seem unprepared as traffic comes to a halt, airports gets closed, and homeless people die on the streets of the European capitals.

Belgrade Knez 07:01 GMT 12/05/2023

started shorting from 1.0960 ..... supports at MP then 1.0750 then 1.0690 ....

GVI Forex 00:27 GMT 12/05/2023  - My Profile
Dec 5 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

An interest rate decision from Australia and key inflation readings from Japan and South Korea are the big market events for the Asia Pacific region on Tuesday, with investor sentiment cooled by Monday's selloff across U.S. stocks and bonds.

Morning Bid: RBA takes center stage as markets wobble

GVI Forex 22:04 GMT 12/04/2023  - My Profile
With US bond yields a focus the current 10 year range is 4.20%~4.30%

San Francisco Monedge 18:49 GMT 12/04/2023  - My Profile
Targeting 148.00.

San Francisco Monedge 18:40 GMT 12/04/2023  - My Profile
Probabilities favor the market targeting Usd/Jpy after today's NY session in our view, barring developing conditions to the contrary.

dc CB 17:20 GMT 12/04/2023
"We are out of money — and nearly out of time," wrote the Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young to Congressional leaders in a letter made public Monday. There are a mere few weeks left before the US must stop giving money to Ukraine. Young warned that the sudden end to aid will "kneecap" Ukraine on the battlefield.

President Biden has been seeking a whopping $106 billion aid package chiefly for Ukraine and Israel. But budget director Young says the proverbial writing is on the wall amid GOP resistance.

"Without congressional action, by the end of the year we will run out of resources to procure more weapons and equipment for Ukraine and to provide equipment from US military stocks," Young wrote. "There is no magical pot of funding available to meet this moment. We are out of money — and nearly out of time," she said.

mainstream media continues its dramatic narrative shift...

Washington Post: "victory for Ukraine" is now "far less likely than years of war and destruction."

Next Page

Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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