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Forex Fundamentals for Technical Traders
GVI Forex john 09:46 GMT 03/16/2010
German ZEW Survey

The ZEW Financial Market Survey is a monthly survey among 350 financial analysts and institutional investors in Germany. It has been conducted since 1991. Participants are asked about their six-months expectations concerning the economy, inflation rates, interest rates, stock markets and exchange rates in the Eurozone, Germany, Japan, United States, United Kingdom, France and Italy as well as their expectations concerning the oil price.

GVI Forex Jay 17:51 GMT 03/15/2010  - My Profile
Can you also email me as to what issue you have on the Learning Forum. It works the same as our others so there should be no issue.

As for Metatrader, it is not clear what issues you are having if you understand this is just a platform. I look forward to your email.

I will repost this exchange on the Learning Forum.

LondonT 17:40 GMT March 15, 2010

London T 17:51 GMT 03/15/2010  - My Profile
Thank you Jay for your emails, I tried to post from education forum but,it is not working.
yes I know that metatrader4 is a platform and I have enough computing knowledge to say that there an administrative and backdoor to metatrader4 that can be programmed, not that the metatrader have any intelligence, it us human who can program things and the metatrader it's like any other computer software can be changed or modified or programmed. I will try to find a website that gives a hint about it and email it to you.

GVI Forex Jay 15:39 GMT 03/15/2010  - My Profile
Let me explain by asking a question:

Do you understand that Metatrader is only a trading platform provided by a broker to display its market prices and for you to trade?

Metatrader does not have a mind of its own and is only a conduit that allows you to trade. The market sets forex rates and your forex broker is only one tiny component of it.

In your question, 1.3652 was the market price, not Metatrader quoting you.

Is that clear?

London T 15:38 GMT 03/15/2010  - My Profile
Reposted from the Forex Forum:

London T euro/uds correct 15:31 GMT March 15, 2010
euro/usd: Reply
sorry sold at 1.3652, can you explain why market did change direction at that exact time? you were saying metatrader4doesn't trade against you, what did it do now JAY

GVI Forex Jay 15:29 GMT March 15, 2010
euro/usd: Reply
London T, ask that question on the Learning Forum and I will answer there.

London T 15:26 GMT March 15, 2010
euro/usd: Reply
3.16 pm GMT,Sell euro/usd @ 1.3752, market reverse direction. you were saying that metatrader4 doesn't trade against you, can you explain why reverse direction at that exact time?

GVI Forex Jay 13:33 GMT 03/15/2010
The following was reprinted from the Open Forum.

GVI Forex Jay 13:32 GMT March 15, 2010
hedging: Reply
TLondon (please type as London T). Metatrader, like any other platform, is only a vehicle to allow you to trade, it does not act to trade for or against you.

I am moving your posts to the Learning forum, where this discussion is being held..

TLondon 20:45 GMT March 12, 2010
hedging: Reply
As I said earlier, brokers can take positions and trade against your stop loss,also metatrader4 terminal can be programmed to trade against you , I don't choose hedging but it does help to find out if there a real trend or metatrader4 is faking it to get you in the market and trade against you, when there is no trade the metatrader will go between your buy and sell positions so you have two negative positions, clever the case right now with the Euro/usd.

Mtl JP 12:59 GMT 03/13/2010
There is a good reason why "hedging" is offered: it makes money for the dealer: "Never give a sucker an even break." - W. C. Fields

GVI Forex Jay 20:25 GMT 03/12/2010
My point is that when hedging is used to lock in a loss rather than taking the loss and closing the position,. it can exacerbate the situation when you try to recoup and leg out of the hedge. Then you are trading the hedge rather than trading the market.

Belgrade AS 20:17 GMT 03/12/2010
other word for hedge is"protective fence"...."d-fence" if u want...hihi
big guns use it to protect their long-term winnings during retracements or consolidation periods.

NYC JM 19:30 GMT 03/12/2010  - My Profile
Belgrade. How is that different from buying a dip and selling a rally? Why do you need a hedge trade?

Belgrade AS 19:27 GMT 03/12/2010  - My Profile
Mtl JP 16:54 GMT ,Mtl dear hedge is a double trap (every commitment is a trap-by definition!)....hedge is a double monky's death...super-stoned cooler's victory(every time!)....the point is:market goes left-right-all around......close your buys above entry and your sells below entry....sooner or later it will be...given that your head is cool enough to bear with the stress.

TLondon J 19:06 GMT 03/12/2010
the hedging situation, for instance, like today, my positions are still open, you will notice by some magic I froze the euro/usd since 2pm between 1.3751 and 1.3763 the price will stay in between, because there is no market or little market.If I close both positions today I will lose $13, better than losing hundreds of $$$, now the difficulty is when to exit, now if the price goes up to 1.4000, I have made 37pips but the sell position is -37-13=-50, to make a profit I sell when the price is gone down to 1.3780 or lower, now you gonna asked when do you close the 1st position, when the goes up and up and runs out of steam that's where I take a risk,I know it's not easy.

Phoenix MI 18:13 GMT 03/12/2010
Where hedging works if you want to temporarily take profits and then get exit later on to back into your original position afterwards. Comments?

GVI Forex Jay 16:57 GMT 03/12/2010  - My Profile
From the FF:

Mtl JP 16:54 GMT March 12, 2010
Hedging: Reply
imo getting in a so-called hedge position with two opposing trades on same instrument is a trap.

can you show, by way of example, how you expect this tactic to work out in your favor plz.

London 16:48 GMT March 12, 2010
Hedging: Reply
My hedging doesn't cost much,It cost me very little money if I lose, but at least I know there is a real market and if the price is going up or down, and that I am not trading against the software or my brokers,by the way I use metatrader4 and not ECN.

GVI Forex Jay 16:06 GMT 03/12/2010  - My Profile
London. I thought I would chime in on the hedging discussion. I realize that retail traders seem to like this feature but it is not something that is used by the mainstream market or by institutional traders.

"Hedging" appears to be used mainly to avoid booking a loss and calling it a hedge when it is a loss once you put on the "hedge." I assume there is a psychological component to having positions on, even if they are a buy/sell that nets out to a zero position. The idea is to then work out of your hedge to recover a loss but this can lead to compounding a loss if not done skillfully. You may find yourself doing trades that you might not have considered otherwise. In the end, it favors the broker as you pay an extra spread and increase trading volume.

You are better off taking your loss (or booking your profit) and then looking at the market with a clear head for good risk/reward trades using prudent money management.

Please feel free to comment and to agree or disagree.

London 15:44 GMT March 12, 2010
hedging: Reply
that's what my american brokers call it, I even used to get a message everytime I have a buy position then I try to have a sell position, I got this message (no hedging allowed. I know that hedging is not allowed in the USA, But it is Ok in the UK and other european countries.

London 15:09 GMT March 12, 2010
euro/usd: Reply
Sorry I meant by hedging keep the buy and sell positions opened till the price goes high then close the buy position, and keep the sell position and close it when the price goes down, and the other way round when the price goes down close the sell position and wait till the price goes up to close the buy position.

London 14:53 GMT March 12, 2010
euro/usd: Reply
I opened 2 positions( hedged) around 1.30 pm buy @1.3763 and [email protected], the price will be stuck between 1.3751 and 1.3763 maybe 20pips more or less, this happened every time I hedge, maybe that's it for euro/usd for today, I just killed that rally. to be continued monday...

Golden and Dead Crosses
GVI Forex john 14:18 GMT 03/10/2010
For longer term traders I keep hearing a lot about the golden cross, so I looked it up and found it is less specific that I had thought-

Golden Cross: A short term moving average breaks up through a longer term moving average line. This is a signal for the start of a new up trend.

Dead Cross: A short term moving average down through of the longer term moving average line. This is a signal for the start of a new down trend.

How To Trade With Bollinger Bands- A Series
Belgrade AS 19:58 GMT 03/09/2010
John,i'm ashamed to say but i haven't made a single pip shorting eurusd since december09....what i posted was just an example how trend could be followed using Bollinger+oscilator.
as far as placing stops goes, i think it's up to every trader to make such a comitment that he can go on with his normal life once he walks away from his platform.when i walk down that road,if i don't have any milestones(Rs and Ss )around me i turn to 1:2 risk/reward ratio.
in that hypotetical situation (while placing my first entries)i think my 1st target would have been the base of 1,42-1,45 consolidation.that means-while going for 300pips reward, i KNOW i could live with -150pips risk per fired short unit....later,with those gains running nicely-who knows?

How To Trade With Bollinger Bands- A Series
GVI Forex john 17:18 GMT 03/09/2010
AS- interesting approach. How then do you set your stop, regular analysis or do you somehow incorporate the Bollinger Band analysis?

How To Trade With Bollinger Bands- A Series
Belgrade AS 09:06 GMT 03/08/2010

here's an example of "trend-following" using Bollinger in combination with an oscilator(i prefer slow stochastic,but think for "tech-freaks" RSI could be more suitable!)
idea is simple:during a down-trend,upper bollinger bend represents unsustainable combination with "overbought" on an oscilator of your choise,you have a perfect signal to "jump on a moving train"

How To Trade With Bollinger Bands- A Series
GVI Forex john 14:11 GMT 03/07/2010
Ideas on how to use Bollinger Bands for Trading
Bollinger bands are often used as a measure of volatility. The wider the bands the more volatile the price action has been. The formula we use has the simple 20-day moving average has as its base. We then add or subtract one standard deviation from the 20 day average to arrive at the first set of bands. Two standard deviations are then applied for the second ranges and then three for the third range. Thus we arrive at seven figures each day. Classically the calculation arrives at only thee figures, the simple moving average and then a higher and lower value to which two standard deviations are applied.

Global-view Daily Chart Points

In a normal distribution, 50% of all outcomes have fallen within the initial one standard deviation range, 75% within two and 90% within three. Clearly past price behavior is not a reliable predictor of future prices but it can be used as a guide.

Bollinger Bands can help generate buy and sell signals, but they are not designed to determine the future direction of a currency. Bollinger Bands are used to indicate if prices are in a period high or low volatility and to indicate if prices are at extreme, and possibly unsustainable, levels. Keep in mind that a currency pair can be overbought or oversold for an extended time period. Bollinger are best used to enhance the interpretation of other indicators, and can assist with timing issues in trading.

Contributions to this topic encouraged

How To Trade With Pivot Points- A Series
lkwd jj 18:11 GMT 03/05/2010
i like to see a pettern of where the mkt is in relationship to the levels. at 21. gmt when the new klevels are posted, the mkt is usually between levels. you have to see reaction from mkt near the numbers. just putting in buys near s1 and sells at r1 ,can be deadly. you can buy on wsay down and get stuck or vise versa. take today we couldnt get above 15059 since last night but today once it went above hasent come back. selling at 15112 was not good , neither was selling at 15059. only play is to buy above 15059 and THEN sell at r1 or r2 if it goes there.

How To Trade With Pivot Points- A Series
GVI Forex john 22:27 GMT 02/28/2010
GVI Forex john 21:03 GMT February 28, 2010
Trading Discussion Topic from Learning Forum: Reply
JM- Not my suggestion. Just what I've learned from research!

NYC JM 20:49 GMT February 28, 2010
Trading Discussion Topic from Learning Forum: Reply
For those who use pivot poitns, do you use S1 and

How To Trade With Pivot Points- A Series
GVI Forex john 22:25 GMT 02/28/2010
San Diego bobl 21:06 GMT February 28, 2010
Trading Discussion Topic from Learning Forum: Reply
There is a lot more than a generic standard of the pivot points themselves. The standard set of 5 floor trader numbers has many different applications, just as any trading vehicle has characteristic patterns of behavior. First, pivot points should also include 2 more lines.........the previous days high and low. Market decisions are defined by surpasing them, or staying within the previous days range.

Pivots have different value of use in different market characters. I'll use a few simple examples, although we have personally taken this to another level.

In simple terms, a market can be trending. Uptrends have very different price patterns than a strong downtrending or liquidating market. A market can be rangebound, vasicillating between levels.

Let's take a stairstep uptrending market first. The ideal setup for trend use in an uptrend is for the market to open lower than the central pivot, and pass through it with a close above over chosen timeframes. A 30 close above is a reasonable standard (you are looking for proof). Now, a good continuation pattern up will pass through both levels of resistance. If this occurs, normal price action is for a retracement here to the first level of resistance. This is a good area to lean on, or in other words, add to your position. In a liquidating or free falling market, you should use a faster trigger, and make sure at least a 15 min has printed after the first retracement (back to a down market).

In a range market, the usual max excursion is from S2 up to R2. Now range markets are played entirely differently. The high percentage play is to do nothing until price action has moved to challenge the extremes: S2 and R2. The central pivot has little value in this type of market, because it will normally be traversed several times, gunning stops before a potential excursion. IF price action reaches an extreme, then the risk/reward becomes very favorable. You lean on a level, which if it holds, gives you reward, often at least to central pivot, which acts like a magnet. You do not add at other pivot's only a stop and reverse if the other extreme is hit.

The previous day's high or low provides a line of demarcation. If exceeded on a 15 to 30 min. timeframe, then you have another level to lean on for a trade add. In an uptrend, for instance, if you exceed the previous day's high on a closing basis, your odds increase for follow through and want to add (short covering occurs fueling new longs).

This is a basic use of pivots. There are several caveats designed to increase R/R.


How To Trade With Pivot Points- A Series
GVI Forex john 19:45 GMT 02/28/2010
Calculation of Support Resistance

Support/Resistance levels, there are several forrnulae used. I believe the ones we've adopted are the most commonly used? If not please enlighten us.

These may look a little complicated but they really are not if you analyse them.

First Resistance: Two times the Pivot Point minus the Low.
Second Resistance: Close-Low+Pivot point.
Third Resistance: 2 times the Pivot Point plus 2 times the High minus the Low.

First Support: Two times the Pivot Point minus that day's High.
Second Support: Close-High+Pivot Point.
Third Support: 2 times the Pivot Point minus 2 times the High minus the Low.

How To Trade With Pivot Points- A Series
GVI Forex john 19:19 GMT 02/28/2010
Hi QC this is John. This was my post not Jay's. You saw we post the pivot points daily? Its really more of a daily indicator, but I will look into a weekly view.


How To Trade With Pivot Points- A Series
Richland QC Mailman 05:12 GMT 02/28/2010
Hi Jay. May I suggest that your consider posting the Weekly Pivot points every Monday based on the data from the prior week? Same formulas. It may serve as guide for trading on the upcoming week.

How To Trade With Pivot Points- A Series
GVI Forex john 20:27 GMT 02/27/2010
Trading With Pivot Points

At the end of trading each day (NY close at 16:00 local time), Global-View updates its FX Database and based on that price data it computes the day’s pivot point, which is based on the formula (high + low + close) / 3. Very simple ! Using a pivot point trading system, the pivot point is the primary support/resistance for the next trading day.

Pivot point traders expect the largest price movement to occur when this level is initially penetrated to the up, or downside. Thus they buy on a penetration of pivot point resistance or sell a penetration of pivot point support.

We also provide three additional support and resistance levels (next post). These levels are thought to be less influential, but at times can generate significant price movements.

Here is an extract from our Chart Points Table:

Click for Complete Chart Points







Res 3






Res 2






Res 1












Sup 1






Sup 2






Sup 3












Res 3






Res 2






Res 1












Sup 1






Sup 2






Sup 3












Next Post: How we compute Support and Resistance Levels

Comments, corrections or additions encouraged!

Forex Fundamentals for Technical Traders
GVI Forex john 15:01 GMT 02/24/2010
The Monetary Policy Report to the Congress

The Monetary Policy Report to the Congress is a semi-annual report prepared by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and presented to the U.S. Congress. The Fed Chairman is required to offer testimony about the report to the Banking Committee of the Senate and the Committee on Financial Services of the House.

Monetary Policy Reports are mandated by the Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment Act of 1978. The Monetary Policy Reports were previously referred to as Humphrey-Hawkins reports

Forex Fundamentals for Technical Traders
GVI Forex john 11:12 GMT 02/05/2010
Employment Report (various countries)

Employment is a monthly estimate of the number of payroll jobs. The rate of unemployment is released along with this report.

Impact: Growth of employment and hours worked provide important information about the current and likely future pace of overall economic growth. Trends in average hourly earnings provide information about supply and demand conditions in labor markets, which may provide signals about the overall level of resource utilization in the economy.

Forex Fundamentals for Technical Traders
GVI Forex john 13:02 GMT 02/04/2010
U.S. Quarterly Productivity

Productivity measures output from a production process per unit of input. Labor productivity is typically measured as a ratio of output per labor-hour.

Forex Fundamentals for Technical Traders
GVI Forex john 12:35 GMT 02/03/2010
U.S. Quarterly Refunding Announcement

Debt Management Policy decisions are announced as part of the Quarterly Refunding. The Office works closely with the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee and market participants to manage Treasury borrowing needs.

Forex Fundamentals for Technical Traders
GVI Forex john 13:08 GMT 01/19/2010
LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate)

LIBOR is the offered side of deposit interest rates that very large banks charge each other for wholesale loans in various major currencies. This rate is applicable to the short-term international interbank market for anywhere from one day to five years. The official LIBOR is computed daily by the British Bankers Association (BBA) based on a small group of large London banks. Nevertheless, rates change throughout the day.

Forex Fundamentals for Technical Traders
GVI Forex john 15:53 GMT 01/14/2010
ECB Press Conference

An important component of the ECB policy decision. Live
Video broadcast.

Forex Fundamentals for Technical Traders
GVI Forex john 15:47 GMT 01/14/2010
Import/Export Prices

The import price index measures changes in the prices of imports of merchandise into a country.

The export price index is an index calculated for the prices of one or any specified group of commodities entering into international trade using, ideally, f.o.b. export prices.

Forex Fundamentals for Technical Traders
GVI Forex john 14:35 GMT 01/12/2010
OPEN INTEREST: is the number of open contracts for a particular market. Open interest used for most exchange traded futures and options contracts.

IMPACT: Open interest can be used as an indication of trader commitment to a position in the market. It can also be used as an overbought or oversold indicator.

Forex Fundamentals for Technical Traders
GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT 12/29/2009
The Swiss KoF Leading Indicators Index

The Swiss KoF Institute Leading Indicators Index determines overall economic health by combining 12 indicators related to consumer confidence, banking confidence, production, new orders and housing. It indicates the economic trend and the movement of GDP growth in Switzerland.

IMPACT: A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.

-- Source FXPros

Forex Fundamentals for Technical Traders
GVI Forex john 12:39 GMT 12/23/2009
Difference Between GNP and GDP

GDP (gross domestic product) is the total market value of goods and services produced within the borders of a country regardless of the nationality of those who produce them.

GNP (gross national product) is the total market value of goods and services produced by the residents of a country, even if they’re living abroad. So if a U.S. resident earns money from an investment overseas, that value would be included in GNP (but not GDP).

GDP is generally the preferred measure of national output.

Forex Fundamentals for Technical Traders
sofia kaprikorn 09:34 GMT 12/19/2009  - My Profile

10-2Yr UST spreads as leading indicators:

12/17/2009 21:16:40 john GVI Forex 22
Inspired by an email from a GVI member EARLIER today. Note how EURUSD has correlated very well with the 10s vs. 2s spread in the U.S. recently. Yes fundamentals do matter. You just have to keep looking for which fundamentals are working.

12/17/2009 21:31:49 john GVI Forex 19
The correlation charts are useful because they explain how the markets work. In this case, they are useful because they provide insight into how to react to developments that are likely to impact the U.S. yield curve. Furthermore, it should provide additional information to those wanting to fight the trends.

Bottom line is markets usually move for a REASON they are not just a succession of random prices.

12/17/2009 21:41:07 john GVI Forex 15
I can't say how long it will work. We will just have to see. The idiotic EURUSD to S&P correlation has been working for several years. The key item here is that the rising spread preceded the USD turn by a couple of months. If I had been smart enough to have been watching it Id be a lot better off today than a was a couple of months ago. I'm going to be watching it now!

Forex Fundamentals for Technical Traders
GVI Forex john 23:30 GMT 12/09/2009
Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) Japan

The Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) focuses on the prices of goods traded among corporations. The main purpose of the index is to investigate price developments that closely reflect supply and demand conditions in the markets for individual goods, with a view to facilitating the analysis of macro economic conditions. At the same time, indexes for lower-order (less-aggregated) categories, such as individual commodities and commodity classes, not only have a role as deflators that transform nominal output values into real quantities, but are also useful as references when determining prices for individual transactions.

Forex Fundamentals for Technical Traders
GVI Forex john 23:12 GMT 12/09/2009
Machine orders (Japan)

Machine orders (Japan) Definition: Machine Orders Data (also known as Machine Tool Order Data) is a figure issued by Japan Machine Tool Builders Association (JMTBA) every month. It serves as one indicator of the Japanese economy. In the forex market, the release of such data is often followed by sharp change in currency exchange rate.

Forex Fundamentals for Technical Traders
GVI Forex john 17:51 GMT 11/24/2009
Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC Minutes)

Three weeks after the each FOMC meeting, the Fed releases minutes of that meeting. The minutes provide an in-depth summary of what was discussed at the meeting and list those who voted with the majority and those who dissented.

Forex Fundamentals for Technical Traders
GVI Forex john 13:46 GMT 11/24/2009
Belgian Leading Indicators

Often a reliable predictor of the important monthly German IFO Survey. It is not always released before IFO each month.

Here is a good lesson for all traders
GVI Forex Jay 12:21 GMT 11/24/2009  - My Profile
Here is a good lesson for all traders. When you make a keyboard error and trade inadvertently, do not try to justify the trade and get out at the next price. It is rare to make money on errors but even if you get lucky, it is not worth the risk. Don;t try to justify the trade and hope you get lucky. Te word HOPEis not a word in my forex vocabulary.

the reason i am writing this is that I just made one of those errors. One of my platforms was open and screensaver was on. I hit the mouse in error and heard a noise. I opened the screen and saw I had just sold eur/usd at 1.44443. I hesitated for a second and closed it for a tiny loss at the next price, 1.44449. The market traded around my entry level for a short while and then spiked higher, last quote being 1.4970.

So, had I not closed the position taken in error I would be sitting on a 26 pip loser.

Options basics
Plano 19:53 GMT 11/22/2009
I am first time in this forum, and yes I am looking for Option education based on QIndex. I saw you talk about DNT option:

What is the name of broker I can open demo to practice DNT?

Forex Fundamentals for Technical Traders
GVI Forex john 14:06 GMT 11/17/2009
Treasury TIC data

The Treasury International Capital (TIC) reporting system collects data for the United States on cross-border portfolio investment flows and positions between U.S. residents (including U.S.-based branches of firms headquartered in other countries) and foreign residents (including offshore branches of U.S. firms).

IMPACT: Traders sometimes use the TIC data as a measure of international demand for U.S. financial instruments. These data tend to be a bit old (two months) by the time they are released.

Forex Fundamentals for Technical Traders
GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT 11/17/2009
Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization

Industrial Production is an index designed to measure changes in the level of output in the industrial sector of the economy. The index is grouped by both products (consumer goods, business equipment, intermediate goods, and materials) and industry (manufacturing, mining, and utilities). The data is produced by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

IMPACT: While the industrial sector of the economy represents only about 20 percent of GDP, because changes in GDP are heavily concentrated in the industrial sector changes in this index provide useful information on the current growth of GDP. The level of capacity utilization in the industrial sector provides information on the overall level of resource utilization in the economy which may in turn provide information on the likely future course of inflation.

Forex Fundamentals for Technical Traders
GVI Forex Jay 10:57 GMT 11/11/2009  - My Profile
The following discussion took place on GVI Forex last night and is worth reading as this is a case where fundamentals are what is driving the forex market. Scroll down and read up for chronological order.

Sydney GE 02:11 GMT November 11, 2009
market: Reply
Well yes it is inevitable but maybe not for a very long time. The Fed seems intent on creating asset inflation as a precursor to consumer inflation. The market has taken the view therefore that rates will stay very low for a very long time and thus the moves you are seeing. Bonds will stay bid a nd equities look like they want to start a new major bull phase ie new overall highs.USD stays weak due to the carry trade phenomenon as well as the reserve diversification by central banks.

But there is one potential paradox and its a long shot. The RBA is supposedly trying to burst the housing bubble here juxtaposed against a Fed trying to create an asset bubble. Does that mean we should sell AUD?

GVI Forex Jay 01:38 GMT November 11, 2009
market: Reply
GE, and that is inevitable but when is the question? Currently, markets have cover of an easy Fed

Sydney GE 01:13 GMT November 11, 2009
market: Reply
And the risk aversion will come about through a tick up in US interest rates

GVI Forex Jay 01:00 GMT November 11, 2009
market: Reply
Edit Delete All
The way I see it, the only thing that would turn the dollar is a bout of risk aversion. Otherwise, bouts of indigestion or correction seem more focused on rotation between currencies (via crosses) than buying of dollars. Then you also have diversification and that is not going away. Conclusion: Given current Fed policies, it will be very difficult for the dollar to sustain any sort of rally in the absence of risk aversion.

As for Wednesday, it is hard to make a suggestion for a holiday session. However, while I was comfortable selling eur/usd 1,50+ on Tuesday, I am less comfortable with that view Wednesday and leaning towards buying dips.

Feel free to comment.

Forex Fundamentals for Technical Traders
GVI Forex Jay 19:56 GMT 11/06/2009  - My Profile
Today was a prime example of the reaction to news being more important than the news itself. Note the reaction in the CAD, which fell sharply after a weaker employment report although that came following a surprise strong showing the prior month. The market could easily have shrugged it off if it wanted to average the two months but the CAD fall showed it was vulnerable.

The reaction to the US employment report was a mixed one and harder to decipher. Stocks as of this writing are near flat on the day and the dollar, well the dollar, is pulled in both directions. JPY crosses point to risk aversion, a firm AUD suggests otherwise.

Forex Fundamentals for Technical Traders
GVI Forex Jay 02:09 GMT 11/06/2009  - My Profile
This is from a discussion on GVI Forex about the significance of a 10% unemployment rate and worth a read.

GVI Forex john 23:09 GMT November 5, 2009
Jobs report: Reply
Historically the unemployment rate is the last jobs statistic to turn. It can continue to worsen even after NFP starts to improve. 10% means nothing its just an ugly number psychologically. It will get the lead on the evening news broadcasts.

GVI Forex Jay 23:07 GMT November 5, 2009
Jobs report: Reply
Because CNBC has been talking about it all day and so have wire services. More psychological than anything else for its effect on the consumer, who needs to get some confidence before opening the wallet.This is why stemming job losses and creating new ones is the key to an economic recovery.

Mtl JP 23:05 GMT November 5, 2009
Jobs report: Reply
Jay why is 10% unemployment print a worry ? everyone from 0bama to Larry has been forecasting it for months, even higher.

GVI Forex Jay 19:21 GMT 10/28/2009
We had a discussion on the Forex Forum testerday about the need for a good risk-reward when putting on a trade. One of our new members posted this for a long usd/jpy position established at 92.253

Have my limit at 92.563 and stop at 90.553

We had a discussion on it and I made my point about risk-reward in a trade risking 170 pips to make 31. The low today was 90.55 so assume this positrion was stopped out at the low.

MY point yesterday and again today is that while you might get lucky with this approach, there are days like today where you get stopped out for a biig loss. Using this risk reward, you would need to make 6 profitable trades of 31 pips to make back the loss on one risk-reward trade like this.

Feel free to comment.

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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