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EUR/USD
GVI Forex Jay 11:55 GMT 02/03/2010


My only question this morning is why didn't the market trade to current levels yesterday as everything was setup for a move back to eur/usd 1.40 (initial target achieved) and a firmer eur/jpy. I don't get the timing but at least the market acted logically, both from a fiundamental and technical viewpoint. Re the latter,1 hour chart is still acting as a guide (see above).

Key for today is 1.40 and whether it becomes support. resistance, or pivoted as is currently happening. As pointed out, 1.4025 = 38.2% retrace, 1.40655 = 61.8%. (intra-day high 1.4026)

On the downside, local support is from yesterday's 1.3974 low. Intra-day charts show some support between 1.3970-90.

What has changed from January is that eur/usd downticks are not setting new lows nor setting off stops. More likely to find some stops on the upside but still sense this is a reluctant move (correction).

ADP and ISM PMI today.

AUD, NZD, ZAR in depth thread
GVI Forex john 13:45 GMT 02/02/2010
Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.75 per cent.

The global economy is growing, and world GDP is expected to rise at close to trend pace in 2010 and 2011. The expansion is still likely to be modest in the major countries, due to the continuing legacy of the financial crisis, resulting in ongoing excess capacity. In Asia, where financial sectors are not impaired, recovery has been much quicker to date, though the Chinese authorities are now seeking to reduce the degree of stimulus to their economy. Global financial markets are functioning much better than they were a year ago. Credit conditions nonetheless remain difficult in the major countries as banks continue to face loan losses associated with the period of economic weakness. Concerns regarding some sovereigns have increased.

In Australia, economic conditions have been stronger than expected, after a mild downturn a year ago. The effects of the fiscal stimulus on consumer demand have now faded, but household finances are being supported by strong labour market outcomes and a recovery in net worth. Public infrastructure spending is now boosting demand, as is an upturn in housing construction. Investment in the resources sector is strong. The rate of unemployment appears to have peaked at a much lower level than earlier expected.
Inflation has, as expected, declined in underlying terms from its peak in 2008, helped by the fall in commodity prices at the end of 2008, a noticeable slowing in private‑sector labour costs during 2009, the recent rise in the exchange rate and a period of slower growth in demand. CPI inflation has risen somewhat recently as temporary factors that had been holding it down are now abating. Inflation is expected to be consistent with the target in 2010.

Credit for housing has been expanding at a solid pace, and dwelling prices have risen significantly over the past year. Business credit, in contrast, has continued to fall, as companies have sought to reduce leverage, and lenders have imposed tighter lending standards and in some cases sought to scale back their balance sheets. The decline in credit has been concentrated among large firms, which generally have had good access to equity capital and, more recently, to debt markets; credit conditions remain difficult for many smaller businesses.

With the risk of serious economic contraction in Australia having passed, the Board had moved at recent meetings to lessen the degree of monetary stimulus that was put in place when the outlook appeared to be much weaker. Lenders have generally raised rates a little more than the cash rate over recent months and most loan rates have risen by close to a percentage point. Since information about the early impact of those changes is still limited, the Board judged it appropriate to hold a steady setting of monetary policy for the time being.
Interest rates to most borrowers nonetheless remain lower than average. If economic conditions evolve broadly as expected, the Board considers it likely that monetary policy will, over time, need to be adjusted further in order to ensure that inflation remains consistent with the target over the medium term.


EUR/USD
GVI Forex Jay 11:51 GMT 02/02/2010


This is a follow-up to the post yesterday on the 1 hour eur/usd chart, which has seen the trendline broken today.

EUR/USD is getting some cross support from various pairs and this has seen the 1 hour trendline, which has been guiding the bias for nearly 3 weeks, finally pierced, marginally so far (see chart). The high has been 1.3956 and it would have to get through 1.3980 to put 1.40 in play again. 1.3984 = 38.2% of 1.4197-1.3853. Using daily pivots, Res 1 = 1.3956, Res 2 = 1.3986br />
Hard to suggest follow through in this environment but the break of the trendline, if confirmed, would at least suggest a change but 1.40+ would be needed to confirm a greater retracement risk.

No data today except US pending home sales.

EUR/USD
GVI Forex Jay 12:53 GMT 02/01/2010


EUR/USD 1 hour chart has been a good guide to the downtrend, now nearly 3 weeks on this time frame. Note the trendline (currently 1.3990) is coming closer into range. Daily pivot point is 1.3906.

There has been a large put seller by a major player at lower strikes (as posted on GVI Forex). If you want details, send me an EMAIL

EUR/USD
GVI Forex Jay 14:13 GMT 01/30/2010  - My Profile
EUR/USD daily pivot point, which held dead on as resistance Friday, comes in at 1.3906 on Monday, Click for chart points

EUR/USD
GVI Forex Jay 13:56 GMT 01/30/2010
This is why we suggest discussion rather than just being a viewer as no one person has all the answers. See this post on GVI, which strengthens the case for EUR/USD 1.38 being a key level.

GOT PK 12:21 GMT January 30, 2010
EUR/USD: Reply
1.38 is the 50% of 1.2456 - 1.5140.


EUR/USD
GVI Forex Jay 13:09 GMT 01/30/2010


The weekly EUR/USD chart is also revealing but key support levels are not until below 1.30. In this regard, the 1.2331 low is key as a break would be needed to coinfirm a lower top and a long term downtrend. Right now the market is searching for support within a broad 1.2331-1.5141 range. If you use retracements, 1.3736 = 50%, 1.3404 = 61,8%. EUR/USD 1.38 is going to be a pivotal big figure so have to watch price action if approached. Next support is at 1.3833. Note prior update for the daily chart.

Feel free to comment and continue a discussion.

EUR/USD
GVI Forex Jay 10:20 GMT 01/30/2010


The EUR/USD daily chart is very revealing. Key area is a cluster of key levels between 1.3735-50, which includes

1.3749 = key June 16, 2009 low
1.3737-38 = March 19-21 double top and former breakout level on the upside
1.3736 = 50% of 1.2331=1.5141

Ahead of that cluster is 1.3833 (July 8, 2009 low) and 1.3800 (someone on the FF mentioned this as a Chine held barrier option - we will see).

Point is the 1.3735-50 is the target (i have been citing the 1.3749 level) following the firm break of 1.40 so approaching an area that has potential for support or at least a pause. Al mentioned in his video the 1.36 area as a possible area for a pause.

The above was posted yesterday on GVI Forex

EUR/USD
GVI Forex Jay 14:09 GMT 01/28/2010


As a follow-up to the chart I posted on Tuesday, continue to keep an eye on the one hour eur/usd chart as its downtrend on this time frame, which is now over two weeks, remains intact. Downtrendline is coming within range so needs to be watched, especially if market starts to consolidate around 1.40. Similar pattern can be seen on a 4 hour chart.

One change from yesterday is the deck has been cleared of stops until the 1.3934 low so no nearby stops to go after until that level.

Daily chart shows risk for 1.3833 and 1.3749 should 1.40 become resistance.

AUD, NZD, ZAR in depth thread
GVI Forex john 20:52 GMT 01/27/2010
The Reserve Bank today left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.5 percent.

Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said: “The outlook for the New Zealand economy remains consistent with the projections underlying the December Monetary Policy Statement.

“Global activity continues to recover, helping push New Zealand’s export commodity prices higher. Economic growth is most apparent in China, Australia, and emerging Asia. However, sustained growth throughout our trading partners is not assured, with many still facing impaired financial sectors and overall activity still reliant on policy support.

“Similarly, the New Zealand economy continues to recover. Policy stimulus and improving export earnings have seen a pickup in household spending. That said, households remain cautious, with credit growth subdued. Business spending remains weak.

“Annual CPI inflation is currently at the centre of the target band, and is expected to track comfortably within the band over the medium term.

“The economy is being assisted by both monetary and fiscal policy support. As growth becomes self sustaining, fiscal consolidation would help reduce the work that monetary policy might otherwise need to do.

“If the economy continues to recover in line with our December projections, we would expect to begin removing policy stimulus around the middle of 2010.”

EUR/USD
GVI Forex Jay 20:03 GMT 01/26/2010


I have been using the one hour chart and as can be seen by the chart posted above, there is a downtrend that has been intact for nearly 2 weeks. Keep an eye on the 1 hour chart as the risk will be pointed down as long as the trendline stays intact. However, there is a time limit on this chart formation as the trendline will come into range if the 1.4028 low stays intact. The Tuesday low was 1.4043.

EUR/USD
GVI Forex Jay 14:32 GMT 01/21/2010


Different feel to the market since the eur/usd made its low (1.4028). See the 5 minute chart.

Intra-day (minor) resistance still at 1.4100, 1.4120, 1.4137.

(As posted on GVI Forex - chart updated)

CAD in Depth Trading Thread
GVI Forex john 12:07 GMT 01/20/2010
Canada CPI December 2009
Consumer prices rose 1.3% in the 12 months to December, following a 1.0% increase in November. December's increase was the largest since February 2009.

The rise in the all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) was due primarily to gasoline prices, which exerted upward pressure on the CPI for the second consecutive month. This follows an extended period in which they were the main contributors to year-over-year declines in overall consumer prices.

In December, gasoline prices were 25.6% higher than they were in December 2008. This follows a 14.1% rise in November. December's increase was the largest since September 2008.

Overall, energy prices went up 5.9% in the 12 months to December, following a 1.3% increase in the 12 months to November.

EUR/USD
GVI Forex Jay 11:27 GMT 01/20/2010


As noted last night, 1.4190 and 1.4177 were next key supports, both broken. As the daily chart shows, a firm break would expose 1.4046 and 1.4007. On the upside, back above 1.4219, at a minimum, would be needed to slow the risk. Local resistance is 1.4190-1.4220.

CAD in Depth Trading Thread
GVI Forex john 14:06 GMT 01/19/2010
Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/4 per cent and reiterates conditional commitment to hold current policy rate until the end of the second quarter of 2010
OTTAWA — The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is unchanged at 1/2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

The global economic recovery is under way, supported by continued improvements in financial conditions and stronger domestic demand growth in many emerging-market economies. While the outlook for global growth through 2010 and 2011 is somewhat stronger than the Bank had projected in its October Monetary Policy Report, the recovery continues to depend on exceptional monetary and fiscal stimulus, as well as extraordinary measures taken to support financial systems.
Economic growth in Canada resumed in the third quarter of 2009 and is expected to have picked up further in the fourth quarter. Total CPI inflation turned positive in the fourth quarter and the core rate of inflation has been slightly higher than expected in recent months. Nevertheless, considerable excess supply remains, and the Bank judges that the economy was operating about 3 ¼ per cent below its production capacity in the fourth quarter of 2009.

Canada's economic recovery is expected to evolve largely as anticipated in the October MPR, with the economy returning to full capacity and inflation to the 2 per cent target in the third quarter of 2011. The Bank projects that the economy will grow by 2.9 per cent in 2010 and 3.5 per cent in 2011, after contracting by 2.5 per cent in 2009.

The factors shaping the recovery are largely unchanged - policy support, increased confidence, improving financial conditions, global growth, and higher terms of trade. At the same time, the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar and the low absolute level of U.S. demand continue to act as significant drags on economic activity in Canada. On balance, these factors have shifted the composition of aggregate demand towards growth in domestic demand and away from net exports. The private sector should become the sole driver of domestic demand growth in 2011.

Conditional on the outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target. Consistent with this conditional commitment, the Bank will continue to conduct term Purchase and Resale Agreements based on existing terms and conditions and according to the accompanying schedule:

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/notices_fmd/2010/notice_fad190110.pdf

In its conduct of monetary policy at low interest rates, the Bank retains considerable flexibility, consistent with the framework outlined in the April 2009 MPR.

The risks to the outlook for inflation continue to be those outlined in the October MPR. On the upside, the main risks are stronger-than-projected global and domestic demand. On the downside, the main risks are a more protracted global recovery and persistent strength of the Canadian dollar that could act as a significant further drag on growth and put additional downward pressure on inflation. While the underlying macroeconomic risks to the projection are roughly balanced, the Bank judges that, as a consequence of operating at the effective lower bound, the overall risks to its inflation projection are tilted slightly to the downside.

Information note:
A full update of the Bank's outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the Monetary Policy Report on 21 January 2010. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 2 March 2010.


EUR/USD
GVI Forex Jay 10:27 GMT 01/15/2010


The euro is the focus and getting hit both vs the dollar and on its crosses. So far the downside has paused around the 20 day mva (1.4381) wiht a low at 1.4378. Charts show little between 1.43-1.44 (the old "no man's land") except for the 20 day mva, 1.4357 (61.8% of 1.4219-1.4580) and 1.4304 (76.4%).

On the upside, pivotal resistance is not until yesterday's 1.4447 low with minor levels at 1.4420-25 ahead of it. Last week's close was 1.4411.

For those who want to be clued in, GVI Forex (our professionals forum open to traders of all levels of experience for viewing) was all over the Merkel rumor last night, that drove the euro lower. If you want more information on GVI Forex or a free trial, send me an EMAIL

EUR/JPY
GVI Forex Jay 12:32 GMT 12/29/2009


JPY carry trades are the main focus today and in this regard, I posted two updates + charts (see above) over the past two days (see below) pointing out this risk and some targets.


GVI Forex Jay 10:34 GMT December 29, 2009
eur/jpy: Reply

JPY carry trade flows dominating (note aud/jpy) in a very thin market and this has seen most of the impact in other pairs as usd/jpy has traded a very tight range. USD/JPY would have to move above 92.00 to ease offset pressure on other pairs, assuming jpy weakens further on its crosses.

In this regard, note my post in this thread yesterday at this time about the mva cluster in eur/jpy and the revival of the jpy carry trade risk. I noted 132.00 would need to be renewed to expose the mva cluster as a target. EUR/JPY extended its recovery to 6 days in a row today and the cluster comes in at 132.65-133.01. John has been noting the risk in the jpy for many weeks and has been ahead of the curve in this regard.

132.65 = 50 day mva
133.01 = 100 day mva
132.96 = 200 day mva

USD/JPY:
90.79 = 100 day mva
93.79 = 200 day mva


GVI Forex Jay 11:44 GMT December 28, 2009
eur/jpy: Reply

This is usually a week where those trading often try to get an early jump start positioning for the new year. This time around there seems to be more uncertainty than usual. One possible path of least resistance trade could be a revival of the jpy carry trade although it has been a bumpy ride trying to revive it.

See the eur/jpy chart posted above where the 50-100-200 day mvas are currently converging between 132.72-133.06. This has potential to be an attraction but eur/jpy would have to clear 132.00 for this come into play.



EUR/USD
GVI Forex Jay 10:46 GMT 12/23/2009


Downtrend on 4 hour chart that started on Dec 3 is still intact. Trendline currently at 1.4312. One hour chart shows a similar trendline.

Fundamentals Do Matter
GVI Forex john 14:34 GMT 12/18/2009
Discussion in Japan today after the BOJ meeting has focused on this chart. Talk that yr/yr Nationwide CPI headed for -3.0%! All the while, the BOJ has been SELLING JGBs (selling JGBs reduces liquidity). Big announcement today was new effort to combat deflation and to start to expand liquidity (Quantitative Easing). This MUST result in a steadily weakening JPY?





Fundamentals Do Matter
GVI Forex john 14:33 GMT 12/18/2009
The purpose of this thread is to discuss items from GVI Forex that illustrate how fundamental factors are driving the price action in forex. Discussion is encouraged!

CAD in Depth Trading Thread
GVI Forex john 12:07 GMT 12/17/2009
November 2009
Canadian Consumer prices rose 1.0% in the 12 months to November, following a 0.1% increase in October.

The rise in the all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) was due primarily to gasoline prices. Prices at the pump are now exerting upward pressure on the CPI after an extended period in which they were the main contributors to year-over-year declines in overall consumer prices.

In November, gasoline prices were 14.1% higher than they were in November 2008. This follows a 13.1% decline between October 2008 and October 2009.

Overall, energy prices rose 1.3% between November 2008 and November 2009, following a 12.7% decline the month before.

Seasonally adjusted monthly CPI increases

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI went up 0.6% from October to November, after rising 0.4% from September to October. November's increase was due mainly to a 1.8% rise in the transportation index.

The seasonally adjusted monthly CPI has gone up in six of the past seven months.

12-month change: Seven of the eight major components in the CPI record increases

Except for shelter, all major components of the CPI recorded price increases in November. The three components exerting the greatest upward pressure on the CPI were transportation, household operations, furnishings and equipment, and food.

Transportation prices, which rose 1.9% in the 12 months to November, exerted the largest upward pressure on the CPI due primarily to higher gasoline prices. It was the first 12-month increase for this component since October 2008.

In addition to higher prices at the pump, consumers paid 7.8% more for passenger vehicle insurance premiums. However, prices for passenger vehicles were 6.0% lower than the same period last year.

The cost of household operations, furnishing and equipment rose 2.8% during the 12-month period to November. Upward pressure came from communications, child care and domestic services, furniture and household textiles, household appliances, and other household goods and services.

Food prices rose 1.7%, following a 2.3% increase in October. November's advance was the smallest since April 2008.

Prices for dairy products and eggs rose 2.1% while prices for fish, seafood and other marine products rose 5.4%. Prices for food purchased from restaurants went up 2.7%. On the other hand, prices fell for fresh fruit (-5.7%) and fresh vegetables (-5.9%).

Recreation, education and reading costs advanced 1.8% in the 12 months to November. Major contributors to the increase were tuition fees and reading material and other printed material. In contrast, prices for computer equipment and supplies and other electronic equipment items such as video, audio, and photographic equipment continued to fall.

Broad-based price advances occurred in the health and personal care component (+3.2%).

Shelter costs declined 1.7% between November 2008 and November 2009. This drop was mainly the result of price decreases in natural gas (-29.7%) and fuel oil and other fuels (-10.6%). Unlike gasoline, prices for natural gas and fuel oil and other fuels were still exerting downward pressure on the CPI in November.

Downward movements from homeowners' replacement cost (-2.1%) and mortgage interest cost were also recorded.

The mortgage interest cost index, which measures the change in the interest portion of payments on outstanding mortgage debt, fell 4.0% in November, following a 3.1% decrease in October.

On the other hand, homeowners' maintenance and repairs costs and property taxes both increased by 4.3% in November.

Provinces: Consumer prices up in all provinces

Consumer prices rose in all provinces in the 12 months to November. The largest increases occurred in New Brunswick (+2.2%), Prince Edward Island (+1.9%), Nova Scotia (+1.7%), and Quebec (+1.7%).

Consumers in all Atlantic provinces saw price increases between November 2008 and November 2009. Increases in the all-items CPI in these provinces were mostly due to higher gasoline prices and less downward pressure from fuel oil and other fuels.

Price increases in Quebec were driven by higher prices for gasoline and food purchased from restaurants.

In Ontario, prices rose 1.0%. This growth was primarily due to the rise in gasoline prices (+17.5%) and passenger vehicle insurance premiums (+11.6%). Price decreases for natural gas eased the upward pressure.

Prices in British Columbia rose 0.1%. This was the first 12-month increase in the province since May 2009.

12-month change in the Bank of Canada's core index

The Bank of Canada's core index advanced 1.5% over the 12 months to November, following a 1.8% rise in October.

The seasonally adjusted monthly core index increased 0.2% from October to November, following a 0.3% increase in October.

For a more detailed analysis, consult the publication The Consumer Price Index.

EUR/USD
GVI Forex Jay 11:59 GMT 12/17/2009
Just to be clear, it is still 200 pips above its 200 day mva.

EUR/USD
Beijing helen 11:51 GMT 12/17/2009
Thanks, Jay, now I see it standing on its 200 MA on daily chart, good time to long :)

EUR/USD
GVI Forex Jay 11:04 GMT 12/17/2009


These are days when I wish I was a pure technician (see the 4 hour chart posted above) although no complaints after Al got me back on the right path last night. However, price action appears driven by real flows with eur/jpy off sharply and usd/jpy back above 90 and holding steady after a brief blip above that level, and eur/chf extending its retreat below 1.51 (Eastern Europe concerns?). GBP/USD has kept pace with eur/gbp steadying after yesterday's plunge.

There is only minor support in the 1.43s (1.4329 and 1,4304) before a void until 1.4190, 1.4177 and 1.4163 (200 day mva).

On the upside, 1.4420 seems important intra-day, guards 1.4450-81.

As a reference, eur/usd closed 2008 at 1.3954 and 2009 at 1.4587.

As posted earlier on GVI Forex

This was also posted on GVI Forex last night:

GVI Forex Jay 02:41 GMT December 17, 2009
eur/usd 1.45: Reply
Trying to be objective as I was hoping for a mini squeeze to get some better levels until Al's reality check post.

If 1.4481-1.4500+ is not renewed, a case can be made for 1.4177 and the 200 day mva at 1.4163 (which JP has been calling for as a target) should 1.4448 be firmly taken out.

The 1.4448 level was close to tested and is my last remaining support.


EUR/USD
GVI Forex Jay 12:28 GMT 12/15/2009


Updated 1 hour EUR/USD chart (4 hour shows a similar pattern). Not much else needs to be said to show current risk. Daily charts show 1.4481 as next key support, exposed while below 1.4587-1.4627. Note talk of a 1.45-1.53 options with a yearend expiration.

USD/JPY
GVI Forex Jay 11:08 GMT 12/15/2009


USD/JPY is firmer and interesting that it is keeping pace with EUR/USD (EUR/JPY currently quoted at 129.98). Key levels are:

89.48 = 50 day mva
89.81 = Dec 11 high
90.76 = Dec 4 high (key level)

A firm move above 90.76 would be needed to confirm an uptrend.

No obvious supports nearby. 89.32 was yesterday's high so would need to establish as support to challenege the levels posted above.

Intra-day charts show key day support at 89.10-15.

Note 20 day mva = 88.27

USDX
GVI Forex Jay 14:02 GMT 12/12/2009


Since a lot of attention is given to the USD Index (although I don't know anyone who trades it), I am posting a daily chart as it approaches some key levels. As can be seen the major downtrend has been broken and the 100 day mva was about tested on Friday. Beyond that lies a key resistance at 76.85.

With USD Index often used as a proxy for the eur/usd, given the large weighting to the euro in the index, a move above the 100 day mva and 76.85 would be needed to confirm the eur/usd move below its 100 day mva (1.4637 on Monday) and break of key 1.4627 support. EUR/USD is targeting 1.4481 next should 1.4627 become resistance. On the upside, above 1.4627 and then 1.4670 would be needed to slow the risk.

EUR/USD
GVI Forex Jay 19:43 GMT 12/11/2009


Daily chart shows 1.4481 as the next key target while below 1.4627. On the upside, 1.4627 and 1.4670 are important resistance. The other focus is on the 100 day mva (1.4732), which is widely watched in this pair.

The market seemed setup for at least a test of 1.48 early on but a failure to reach 1.4782 (high 1.4777) capped the upside, setting up a 1.4670 breakout on the downside after US retail sales came out.

EUR/USD
GVI Forex Jay 10:57 GMT 12/11/2009


I am still using the 1 hour chart and price action off the bottom suggests the rumored reserve manager buying has provided a floor. On the upside, 1.4682 is a key level,. Wednesday's low and 23.6% of 1.5144-1.4670. Should it be taken out, 1.48 becomes the next obvious level followed by 1.4851, which is 38.2% of 1.5144-1.4670.

A firmer EUR/JPY (see previous update) has been a factor as the market wakes up to easing risk aversion pressures. Fridays are always a tough call, especially at this time of year due to thinning liquidity so will have to see if a reluctant eur/usd can finally claw its way back to 1.48, which at a minimum is needed to shift sentiment. Yesterday's high at 1.4760 would need to become support to suggest a run at 1.4782 and above.

AUD, NZD, ZAR in depth thread
GVI Forex john 20:34 GMT 12/09/2009
10 December 2009

9am

The Official Cash Rate (OCR) remains unchanged at 2.5 percent.

Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said: "The New Zealand economy continues to recover but there remains considerable uncertainty about the durability of the expansion.

"Global activity has continued to rebound. Most obviously, activity in Australia, China and emerging Asia continues to increase and solid growth is expected over the next few years.

"The picture is more mixed in the major developed economies. While activity is expanding, sustained growth is not assured. Financial sectors are still impaired in a number of economies and economic activity is still heavily dependent on policy support.

"In New Zealand, the economy continues to recover, reflecting improved world growth, higher export commodity prices, increased government spending and housing strength. A key uncertainty is the extent to which higher house prices are eventually reflected in increased consumer spending. At this point credit growth remains subdued suggesting households are being relatively cautious.

"While business confidence has improved, actual business spending remains weak. In addition, the high level of the New Zealand dollar has limited the scope for exports to contribute to the recovery. After some short-term correction the current account deficit is expected to widen in the future.

"Annual CPI inflation is expected to remain below 2 percent until early 2011 and track within the target range over the medium term.

"The economy is being assisted by both monetary and fiscal policy support. As growth becomes self sustaining, fiscal consolidation would help reduce the work that monetary policy might otherwise need to do.

"If the economy continues to recover, conditions may support beginning to remove monetary stimulus around the middle of 2010. Recent tightening in financial conditions, driven by a higher exchange rate, increased long-term interest rates and a wider gap between the OCR and bank funding costs, reduces the need for more immediate action."

The Monetary Policy Statement can be found at the following link: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monpol/statements/

GBP/USD
GVI Forex Jay 15:37 GMT 12/09/2009


GBP/USD daily chart shows the key level on the downside is 1.6120-25, the late Sept-early Oct highs that have not been seen since the move above it on Oct 15. Also note the 100 day mva, which is almost a flatline and the 200 day mva is still below the market but rising. So, while the GBP/USD looks soft, it would have to move firmly below 1.6200 to expose 1.6120-25. Daily channel bottom is at 1.6167.

EUR/USD
GVI Forex Jay 18:30 GMT 12/08/2009


FX winning the correlation war as stocks slide and align as risk aversion dominates today. I get the feeling that stocks would have liked to rally today but have been thwarted by the fx market. EUR/USD, as can be seen by the daily chart, shows little on the downside until the key Nov 3 low at 1.4627. Just below that is the 100 day mva, seen as a key indicator for this pair, at 1.4617, making this area a potential tough area of support if seen.

On the upside, expect the market to SOB (Sell on Blips) while below 1.4750. Above 1.4775 would be needed to put 1.48 in play again.

CAD in Depth Trading Thread
GVI Forex john 14:14 GMT 12/08/2009
Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/4 per cent and reiterates conditional commitment to hold current policy rate until the end of the second quarter of 2010

OTTAWA – The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is unchanged at 1/2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

While significant fragilities remain, global economic developments have been slightly more positive and the global outlook has improved modestly relative to the Bank's projection in its October Monetary Policy Report (MPR).
In Canada, as expected, the composition of aggregate demand is shifting towards final domestic demand and away from net exports. In the third quarter, the balance of these shifts resulted in weaker-than-projected GDP growth. Core inflation in recent months has been slightly higher than the Bank had projected, although total CPI inflation remains close to projections.

The main drivers and the profile of the projected recovery in Canada remain consistent with the Bank's views in the October MPR. The Bank continues to expect economic growth to become more solidly entrenched over the projection period and inflation to return to the 2 per cent target in the second half of 2011.

Conditional on the outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target. In its conduct of monetary policy at low interest rates, the Bank retains considerable flexibility, consistent with the framework outlined in the April MPR.
The risks to the outlook for inflation continue to be those outlined in the October MPR. On the upside, the main risks are stronger-than-projected global and domestic demand. On the downside, the main risks are a more protracted global recovery and persistent strength in the Canadian dollar that could act as a significant further drag on growth and put additional downward pressure on inflation. The Bank views all of these risks through the prism of achieving the 2 per cent inflation target.

While the underlying macroeconomic risks to the projection are roughly balanced, the Bank judges that, as a consequence of operating at the effective lower bound, the overall risks to its inflation projection are tilted slightly to the downside.
Information note:

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 19 January 2010. A full update of the Bank's outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the Monetary Policy Report on 21 January 2010.

USD/JPY
GVI Forex Jay 12:35 GMT 12/08/2009


There must be some disappointed USD/JPY bulls this week but facing some key levels between 88.00-88.60.

88.60 = 20 day mva (closing basis)
88.49 = 50% of 84.83-90.76
88.25 = former downtrendline broken last week)
88.00 = Pivotal level flipping between support and resistance, currently support

USD/JPY
GVI Forex Jay 19:15 GMT 12/04/2009


Busy day today and just getting to this now. Daily trendlines broken today but major line is still safe. I have not posted in this thread for some time as most of my trading posts are on GVI Forex (contact me if you want a free trial).

Key levels

90.61 (Nov 12 high)
90.85-85 (minor Nov 5-6 double top)
91.32 (Nov 4 high
91.64 (100 day mvs)

As is typical, unwinding tends to be a lot more viscious than mature trend moves.


CAD in Depth Trading Thread
GVI Forex john 12:05 GMT 12/04/2009
November 2009
Employment rose by 79,000 in November, bringing the unemployment rate down 0.1 percentage points to 8.5%. Despite November's gain, employment was 321,000 (-1.9%) below the peak of October 2008.

Full-time employment increased by 39,000 in November, the third consecutive monthly increase. Part-time employment also rose in November (+40,000), following two months of declines.

November saw an increase in the number of private (+57,000) and public (+54,000) sector employees, while the number of self-employed workers declined (-32,000). In recent months, the number of employees in the public sector, as well as the number of self-employed, has trended up, while in the private sector, the trend has been relatively flat.

Most of the gain in overall employment in November was among women aged 25 to 54 (+51,000) and men aged 55 and over (+17,000).

Almost all the employment growth in November was attributable to the service sector (+73,000), especially educational services. With November's increase, employment in the service sector is back at its October 2008 level, while employment in the goods sector remained well below (-324,000) where it was at that time.

In November, employment growth was widespread across most provinces with the largest gains in Ontario, Quebec and Alberta.

Compared with a year ago, average hourly wages in November were up 2.3%, the lowest year-over-year growth since March 2007.

GBP/USD
lkwd jj 21:28 GMT 12/02/2009
was short yesterday for a few pips as expected 20ma to hold upside on dailies . after todays action looks like she wants to go higher. catalyst might be break of trendline. mkts move first than explain why , later.

EUR/USD
GVI Forex Jay 16:45 GMT 12/02/2009


I posted a 1 hour eur/usd chart on GVI Forex earlier and just posted a follow up chart (see above), which worked out well today. Note the break of the trendline and price action that followed.

If you look at the yellow line, it is clear that the 200 hour mva is the key level and what needs to hold to maintain a bid.

GBP/USD
GVI Forex Jay 12:22 GMT 12/02/2009


GBP/USD boosted by firmer GBP crosses (note GBPJJPY, EUR/GBP). This has seen its daily trendline (1.6653) broken but faces key resistance at 1.6745 and 1.6877. This comes in a market that is bearish and getting squeezed. Yesterday's high was 1.6647, pretty close to the trendline, suggesting 1.6650 needs to become support to maintain a strong bid.

Note there is talk again today of EUR/GBP fixing sell orders.

GBP/USD
GVI Forex Jay 16:41 GMT 12/01/2009


Key GBP/USD level is at the 1.6675 (trendline), which looms above has not been seriously treatened. Note the 20 day mva is at 1.6617. Charts show little otherwise between 1.66-1.67 with key resistance at 1.6745.

The purpose of posting in this Trading Room thread (which I have not used for some time) is to generate discussion so feel free to comment.

AUD, NZD, ZAR in depth thread
GVI Forex john 13:17 GMT 12/01/2009
STATEMENT BY GLENN STEVENS, GOVERNOR
MONETARY POLICY

At its meeting today, the Board decided to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 per cent, effective 2 December 2009.

The global economy has resumed growth. With economic policies remaining expansionary, growth is likely to continue next year, though it will probably be modest in the major countries, due to the continuing legacy of the financial crisis. In China and Asia generally, where financial sectors are not impaired, recovery has been much quicker to date and prospects appear to be for good growth in 2010. Financial markets have improved considerably during 2009, notwithstanding periodic setbacks, and capital flows into Asia and other emerging market regions have been picking up.

In Australia, the downturn was relatively mild, and measures of confidence and business conditions suggest that the economy is in a gradual recovery. The effects of the early stages of the fiscal stimulus on consumer demand are fading, but public infrastructure spending is starting to provide more impetus to demand. Prospects for ongoing expansion of private demand, including business investment, have been strengthening. There have been some early signs of an improvement in labour market conditions. The rate of unemployment is now likely to peak at a considerably lower level than earlier expected.

Inflation has declined from its peak last year, helped by the fall in commodity prices at the end of 2008 and a noticeable slowing in private-sector labour costs during 2009. In underlying terms, inflation should continue to moderate in the near term, though it will probably not fall as far as thought likely six months ago. Headline CPI inflation on a year-ended basis has been unusually low because of temporary factors, and will probably rise somewhat over the coming year. Both CPI and underlying inflation are expected to be consistent with the target in 2010. The rise in the exchange rate during this year will have some impact in containing prices for traded goods and services in the period ahead, and will dampen growth in the trade-exposed sector of the economy.

Credit for housing is expanding at a solid pace, and dwelling prices have risen significantly this year. Business credit has fallen, as companies have reduced leverage in an environment of tighter lending standards, and as some lenders have scaled back their balance sheets. The decline in credit has been concentrated among large firms, which generally have had good access to equity capital and, more recently, to debt markets. Share markets have recovered significant ground, which, together with higher dwelling prices, has meant a noticeable recovery in household wealth.

The Board’s assessment of the outlook remains much as in the November Statement on Monetary Policy. Growth in 2010 is likely to be close to trend and inflation close to target.

With the risk of serious economic contraction in Australia having passed, the Board has moved at recent meetings to lessen gradually the degree of monetary stimulus that was put in place when the outlook appeared to be much weaker. These material adjustments to the stance of monetary policy will, in the Board’s view, work to increase the sustainability of growth in economic activity and keep inflation consistent with the target over the years ahead.

Wfakhoury sys calls
Amman wfakhoury 09:05 GMT 12/01/2009  - My Profile
GBP/USD sell around 16540 or when the 1 hour bar became red after 10 pips tp 16440 . sell another around 164.90 if rise
exit both any level below 16500.

Wfakhoury sys calls
Amman wfakhoury 08:21 GMT 11/30/2009  - My Profile
gbp/usd is now 16490 sell around 16520-10 tp 16450 stop 16540

Wfakhoury sys calls
Amman wfakhoury 18:03 GMT 11/26/2009  - My Profile
GBP/USD exited our buy 16470-80 at 16502

Wfakhoury sys calls
Amman wfakhoury 15:29 GMT 11/26/2009  - My Profile
GBP/USD buy 2 lots 16470-80 tp 16530 stop 16450

Wfakhoury sys calls
Amman wfakhoury 15:13 GMT 11/26/2009  - My Profile
GBP/USD we are now at buy 16510 tp 16590 stop 16490

EUR/USD
GVI Forex Jay 18:54 GMT 11/25/2009


EUR/USD 1.5285 was a breakdown level on the downside and as the daily chart shows, is a potential target on the upside. Immediate obstacles are 1.5100 (options barrier), 1.5165 (76.4% of 1.6040-1.2331), 1.5200 (psychological), none of which are strong techncial levels.

On the downside, needs to maintain 1.5063+ to keep these levels at risk. Local support zone is 1.5015-63.

Wfakhoury sys calls
Amman wfakhoury 15:22 GMT 11/25/2009  - My Profile
GBP/USD pls cancel my previous sell around 16715 as tp target
reached b4 rise to 16715.

Wfakhoury sys calls
Amman wfakhoury 15:11 GMT 11/25/2009  - My Profile
GBP/USD is now 16687 sell around 16715 tp 16650 stop 16740

EUR/USD
GVI Forex Jay 11:31 GMT 11/25/2009


I posted this on GVI Forex yesterday and it looks like case #2 is following case #1 but needs a solid break of 1.5063 to confirm. Note that eur/usd is a follower today (i.e. weaker euro crosses).

From GVI Forex:

GVI Forex Jay 16:36 GMT November 24, 2009
eur/usd: Reply
Look at this daily chart. The current consolidation (case #2) looks similar to what happened in August (case #1), which was eventually resolved to the upside. Hard to say whether history repeats but it does look similar???


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