I have been voicing for days my preference for the buy side of US Dollar which some people very understandably felt was not a good idea. I have been on fire on the long side of UsdJpy. I win this time again.
I was short the pair just prior to Powell opening his mouth with DX hitting 101.50 and hit big again. But my position on the pair further out has not changed. Still prefer the buy side overall.
Due in part to major banks ranging in recession projections from between 15% to as high as 35%, if they are correct then if there is a recession it should not be expected to be dramatic barring the occurrence of dramatic scenarios.
The hyperbolic sentiments of 50 to 100bps cuts is ridiculous one might think. Hyperbolic statements create liquidity.
The smile curve in USD is right in the middle at present and so there is plenty of room for risk appetite or doom and gloom since the Dollar appreciates in either scenario.
After all the con-artistry, lies and false claims in the Democratic National Convention and the false figures one thing must be paid attention to –_–
EMPLOYMENT
One has to wonder if these facts surface from Powell today:
The last three BLS quarterly job data revisions:
Minus 612,000
Minus 735,000
Minus 915,000 (actual is more than 818k reported).
Net Job Losses:
Two Million Two Hundred Sixty Two Thousand
· The hire to job openings ratio between 2018-2020 was 0.85 on average.
· The ratio has since fallen to its current rate of roughly 0.35, which is a 500% decrease.
· This equates to hirings having fallen from 8 hires per 10 job postings to 4 out of 10.
For consideration regarding real economics according to the respected source Resume Builder:
1. 4 out of 10 jobs posted in the US in 2024 were “fake.”
2. 3 out of every 10 jobs in 2024 had roles that were not “real.”
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