I found the comments from Michael interesting due to, in part, that I am and remain a verifiable Quant. Not Youtube Quant but real Quant. A Quant who has actually run an investment firm and had coffee over a chair in multiple cities by invite, all paid for. It is how this CTA approaches markets. That said, After careful analysis I believe that person is almost absolute in analysis.
Very simply, if you take a breath and look at the math “vibration” there is a median in markets which will be met 100% of the time. What matters as an active trader is your timing within the timing. That is difficult.
For example, anyone can say that Euro will hit Ysquared in time. That would be theoretically correct regardless of indicator. The variables is what causes discount in equations, factors that cannot replace real time motion.
And so, you must factor such variations. Which is why such things as standard deviations of 3.0% and 3.5% matter more than the usual 2/0% deviations that you hear about on any given form of media, including the more popular formats.
After back testing and real time performance, the back testing is garbage in real world scenarios when you are on the phone with a major broker. They can tell if you are a skilled linguist or for real.
I concur with the mention of vibration in markets. I have a deep past with calculations that lives depend on, and so there is no room for variance.
I felt it important to acknowledge that prior to making a call for the end of week price level in various currencies. My hit rate is 98.6%.
How you approach it is what matters based on how you attack markets and your existing tolerance levels.
