I think what we have got going on here in housing is we have got an investment cycle, not an economically-driven housing cycle, from the standpoint that really, never before have 40 to 50% of all residential real estate transactions been for cash.
We have never seen that in prior cycles, absolutely not.
~ Brian Pretti
“There are always surprises. You will recall that although she hasn’t been confirmed by the Senate, Yellen is to take over as the Chairman of the Fed. And every Fed Chairman, not only the ones that I’ve known over 50 years but the ones that have been there for the full 100 year history, have been tested in their first year by some market event. For Greenspan it was the Crash of 1987, and for Bernanke it was the Great Recession. I’m going to be very interested because we are seeing one possible impact of that already and that is mortgage rates are creeping up — therefore, mortgage applications have dropped off. We’re back to mortgage applications falling to the level they were when Lehman was being deconstructed.
That is a very, very significant indicator. It is more timely than some of the housing sales and a variety of other things. So if we find that the mortgage rates creep up and the mortgage applications continue to fall, the Fed may have to reverse itself with a ‘red face’ even before it gets started. I think it would be very significant in that people would begin to wonder, ‘Is the Fed in any control at all?’ If they had to reverse rather quickly, before they even began the taper, then people would wonder, ‘How much in control are these people? How much do they know?’”
2 - The Bearish Call to End All Bearish Calls - wsj
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Bottom Line:
an all-in bet on a crash is still probably premature and riski in light of the still unchanged co-ordinated massive CB generosity in Europe (including UK), US and Japan
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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