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Hong Kong AceTrader  01:36:24 GMT - 01/10/2014  

Market Review - 09/01/2014 21:24GMT

Euro falls to a fresh 1-month low after ECB's Draghi comments

The single currency turned lower to a fresh 1-month low against the dollar on Thursday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi reinforced the bank's forward guidance on rates and said the bank was still ready to take 'further decisive action' if needed. The ECB kept interest rate unchanged at 0.25% in January.

During the day, although euro rebounded after finding support at 1.3567 at Asian open and then ratcheted higher to 1.3634 in New York morning, price came under pressure as Draghi reiterated that 'monetary policy will remain accommodative for as long as is needed in order to assist the economic recovery in the euro area' during the press conference and euro penetrated Wednesday's low of 1.3554 to a fresh 1-month low at 1.3548, however, lack-of-follow through selling prompted short-covering and price later recovered above 1.3600 near NY close.

Against the Japanese yen, dollar's intra-day moves on Thursday were mainly driven by cross-trading of yen and price traded in a choppy fashion below Wednesday's high of 105.13. The pair rebounded from Asian low at 104.75 to 105.06 in European morning before falling to 104.77 and then to session low at 104.57 in New York morning.

Cable edged higher from Asian low at 1.6441 to 1.6480 in European morning and then further to 1.6497 in New York morning after Bank of England announced no change to monetary policy following its first meeting of the year, however, euro's intra-day selloff pressured price here and the pair later dropped to 1.6452 and then traded in a choppy fashion for the rest of the New York session.

The Bank of England left rates on hold at 0.5% and announced no change to the size of its GBP 375 billion asset purchase program, as was widely expected. No statement after monetary policy decision.

On the data front, U.S. Labor Department said Thursday the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance last week fell by 15,000 to 330,000 from the previous week's revised total of 345,000. A separate report earlier showed U.K. trade deficit narrowed to GBP 9.44 billion from a downwardly revised deficit of GBP 9.65 billion in October.

In other news, BOJ's Shirai said 'it is possible to aim for 2%inflation at slower pace than 2 yr time frame if burden on households and companies become excessive; currently there is a lot of uncertainty around the time frame for the BOJ's 2% inflation target; would not hesitate to ease further if big downside risks economy, prices emerge; disinflationary trend is somewhat of a concern in euro area but rather limit in U.S.'

Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George told the Wisconsin Bankers Association that 'the Federal Reserve's efforts to provide markets with so-called "forward guidance" on its interest rate policy could result in the Fed keeping interest rates too low for too long, to the detriment of the economy'.

Data to be released on Friday:

Japan leading indicators, U.K. RBC retail sales, industrial production, manufacturing production, France industrial production, manufacturing production, Swiss unemployment rate, CPI, Canada unemployment rate, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earning, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales.

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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