Yeah .. I sold out of my nikkei too 10 pips below you .. Sold some eurusd target 13530.
All yen cross hit resistance pretty hard so we see what breaks loose from here.
tokyo ginko 00:44:53 GMT - 01/16/2014
took 20% off table @ 15930..
tokyo ginko 00:35:37 GMT - 01/16/2014
usd/jpy should stall here for a breather.cap 104.80
meanwhile eur/usd should be hammered..
tokyo ginko 01:17:13 GMT - 01/15/2014
off the table small amt here @ 104.36
tokyo ginko 00:13:06 GMT - 01/14/2014
add nikkei @ 15500 for target 16220-16250 target
Livingston nh 21:09:41 GMT - 01/13/2014
some talk that Q4 GDP may be similar to Q3 - nominal GDP growth in 2014 shrinks budget deficit so supply of treasuries shrinks - so FED may switch TAPER from 50/50 to a larger faster reduction in treasuries purchase favoring MBS thru summer// budget vote on Weds
March FOMC may see the "threshold" lowered again (6% unemployment) - 2 more job reports by then
GVI Forex john 20:09:36 GMT - 01/13/2014
Keep an eye on the yield of the U.S. 10-yr. Prices have risen steadily over the day and yields have fallen to 2.83%, -5bps on the day. This price action suggests traders are not comfortable with the weather explanation for the December jobs report. Of course, all the stock salespeople on bubblevision (CNBC) continue to tout stocks because that is their business.
Syd Sf 15:44:20 GMT - 01/13/2014
It's pretty hard to have your best trade running over a NFP and feel comfortable.
EurGbp being sold so hard last week .. Has really messed up the market In terms of where to turn next for weakest link.
GVI Forex john 14:58:43 GMT - 01/13/2014
Perfect picture of an oversold currency pair using COT charts. Note 20day avg now 104.43 spot 103.23. ginko great call last week!
tokyo ginko 14:14:59 GMT - 01/13/2014
final add 103.02..
average long cost @ 103.11
tokyo ginko 14:06:07 GMT - 01/13/2014
added usd/jpy 103.20
tokyo ginko 13:42:17 GMT - 01/13/2014
turn usd/jpy long here small @ 103.28
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:17:26 GMT - 01/13/2014
Ginko, nice call. You stuck with it so reap the reward.
tokyo ginko 13:02:22 GMT - 01/13/2014
order done at 103.32 earlier.
Nikkei order done at 15605, 15565
global equities should head higher from here...with first test of snp @ 1850
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:13:49 GMT - 01/10/2014
John, good alert on the 20 day mva. High just below it.,
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:59:58 GMT - 01/10/2014
Re the 20 day mva, also note the slope of the line as that reflects momentum.
GVI Forex john 14:57:50 GMT - 01/10/2014
#EURUSD 20-day avg 1.3687 according to our data. I would expect stops on either side of that figure with calculations of the 20-day different according to the source. Our COT indicator says that market sentiment changes on a spot move through the 20-day avg. COT data as of Tuesday due later today.
tokyo ginko 14:40:15 GMT - 01/10/2014
today is a good day to print 103.55/60, stops to 103.30/35
Paris ib 14:19:18 GMT - 01/10/2014
Flat today. Waiting for noise to subside and then, yeah, sell USD. No question the U.S. recovery will struggle with higher yields and a lack of foreign capital inflows. I'm still interested to hear if anyone else has another figure for the Treasury schedule for 2014. I'm at 4 trillion, which is staggering, but I could be wrong. That said, I'm not particularly interested in relative interest rates at this stage, I don't think they are determinant. Geopolitics is where it's at IMVHO. And they look ugly right now. What the U.S. administration is up to in the Chinese region defies belief. Are they stupid? Or just insane? At any rate nothing good will come of it.
jkt abel 14:13:12 GMT - 01/10/2014
ib, selling usd big time?
Paris ib 14:10:47 GMT - 01/10/2014
Indeed CB. That said I'm not buying into the hyped economic recovery in the U.S., which seems to be a slam dunk from every economic commentator out there.
dc CB 14:06:57 GMT - 01/10/2014
dc CB 22:08 GMT January 9, 2014
Dovish ECB, BOE policy steady. U.S. Employment Friday:
As for the NFP...as per usual those that know have already program the computers to swing wide headfake takeoutstops youcannever be asfastas us...it will all be over in 10 seconds and no you'll not be able to catch the more.
PS: the BLS's very own webpage states that the released # is +/- 100,000.
There will be revisions of course, but this month Treasury's needs required that the margin of error be taken on the "minus" side.
GVI Forex john 14:03:07 GMT - 01/10/2014
weather had an outsized impact on the data, but it is winter...
"More than a quarter million Americans were not at work because of inclement weather, the most for any December since 1977, the Labor Department said."
dc CB 13:58:15 GMT - 01/10/2014
with this week's 10Y aution going off at above 3%, did you actually think that the BLS would release a "good" number???
did you think they would put out a 200K+++number and send the 10 up to 3.1%
has anybody been paying attention?
GVI Forex john 13:54:01 GMT - 01/10/2014
#TradeIdeas... So much for ADP and those Wall Street economists. Just proves they don't know much more than the rest of us. We are all flying blind.
Mtl JP 12:26:42 GMT - 01/10/2014
substantial undershoot carries higher risk of (interest) volatility
GVI Forex john 11:24:24 GMT - 01/10/2014
Jay- yes I agree. the dividing line between a strong and disappointing report seems to be 200K. In a larger sense, a jobs gain of 200K is still not very impressive or nearly enough.
As for tapering. I think the general view at the Fed is that the Asset Purchase Program has not worked and they want to get out of it asap before it does permanent damage.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:00:44 GMT - 01/10/2014
Question for NFP is what would be considered an undershoot? Is it sub-200K
Doubtful such an undershoot would change Fed tapering timetable so trade accordingly should the dollar sell off on an undershoot IMHO
GVI Forex john 10:16:30 GMT - 01/10/2014
#TradingIdeas About every six months since 2008 has seen a jobs Friday frenzy like today where an exceptionally strong jobs figure is expected. Sooner or later these expectations will be correct. Even the Fed is betting on this number after making its tapering decision in December.
Frankly, I would rather bet on the accuracy of a weather forecast than the employment forecasts of a bunch of Wall Street economists. Most of them have a vested interest in talking up the economy. Virtually everyone has raised their job estimates since the ADP report on Wednesday. I don't trust ADP more than the weatherman either!
From a trading perspective, keep in mind that all the major markets are already set up for a strong data release, Furthermore, these data now seems regularly to leak ahead of time, so be cautious. Once the dust settles, a strong report would generally be seen as USD positive.
Any ideas on a trading strategy today?
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