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Livingston nh  19:16:53 GMT - 04/25/2017  
 
dil -
It appears that the commentariat has decided that Macron will be the next President of France. Of course, there are the requisite cautions about the Odds and the tag line that anything can happen. Such comments expose the writers' confusion of IMprobable and IMpossible events. The writers actually believe that a Le Pen victory is impossible but it would be gauche to be so frank. Most of the political analysts understand the HOW of elections but not the WHY. When they err the culprit is often the reliance on the GOOD ANALOGY.
In at least two comments you have put a 3x% cap on the Second Round vote for Le Pen. My limited understanding of multi party Parliamentary systems is always a problem in European elections. I see this as a much closer election because of the cultural and economic issues. BUT rather than bid against myself I would ask you to explain the basis for your 3x% cap.

I attach a chart from NYTimes that shows the vote preferences map of France. I note PARIS (the circle) rebuffed Le Pen. The Election is clearly an elites in the castle vs the pitchfork peasants in the village. I will rely on this map for further discussion (if any).


Livingston nh  11:53:17 GMT - 04/26/2017  
One rule of elections is that folks are more likely to turnout to cast a negative vote, ignoring sickness or weather that would deter a trip to vote for an overwhelming favorite or for a party hack

The election is being touted by the Groupthink media as important to reject Le Pen - voters in the traditional parties have joined before to reject the National front // BUT this election has TWO negatives, Le Pen and politics as usual - the task is to determine how many voters say a plague on both your houses and stay home (low turnout), how many perceive politics as usual as the greater evil and reject the call from traditional party leaders to vote for Macron AND the Wild Card of the Far Left and Socialist voters who perceive Macron as the candidate of the Elites

The voters rejected the traditional parties and this is a problem for Macron who is a candidate without a Party - how much organization can/will the party leaders provide for the Maverick into the election day?

The cultural and economic demographics in France are at play in this election much more so than in the recent Dutch election -- it is very similar to Brexit vote, yes or no -- the demographics and motivations of the electorate have shifted -- the polls may be missing this again

I would say the GAP is likely 7% - Macron's support beyond his First Round vote is lukewarm (broad but shallow) -- any slips and the gap can be filled


Kuala Lumpur 06:21:12 GMT - 11/28/2018  
Wow so much of negativity on www.triangularfx.com, guys chat with them as I have only made good profits with them and they have one of the best post customer support service I have dealt with in recent times.



Frankfurt Frankfurt  19:51:42 GMT - 12/23/2018  
Elections are really important for any nation or country. They decide the future of the country because their choosen one will make the policies and laws of the country. I hope that the entire process will be completed peacefully and the entire transition of power will be smooth as ever.






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