User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex Forum     ← Back to Forums

Sort Order: Latest Post on Top - Latest Post Last            Post Reply

Livingston nh  13:14:27 GMT - 11/13/2019  
RF -
The Communists are not going to tolerate the current situation, especially in a period of economic distress.

I wrote the following over 20 years ago
CHINA: The Long March II
(reprinted from our July letter in light of President Jiang's visit)
The last vestige of the politics of the Nineteenth Century vanished when the Union Jack was hauled down for the last time over Hong Kong yesterday. The destiny of over 6 million people was handed over without a shot to a despotic government. Despite Margaret Thatcher's recent reiteration of "we did the right thing", I think her attitude in 1994 towards a handover of Hong Kong might have been a little different than the conciliatory attitude of 1984. After 150 years a plebiscite would have been a far more appropriate response to China's call for unilateral reunification.
For those readers who think Communism died when the Berlin Wall crumbled and the Soviet Empire dissolved into its constituent fractious parts, think again. Consider what the NATO response would have been ten years ago to a Soviet offer to withdraw to its Russian border if West Berlin was ceded to the control of East Germany. Fat Chance - how long do you think West Berlin would have lasted as an independent Administrative Region? Oh, but the Chinese are different. They're not really communists anymore.
The problem isn't even communism; the problem is dictatorships of all stripes whether they are grounded in religious fanaticism like Iran, personality cults like Iraq, Cuba or North Korea or the numerous military thugs from Bosnia to Africa and South America. Investing in these countries is insanity. People still do it and act surprised when their pockets are picked.
Let me make three critical points about China. China is a lawless society because such law as may exist is subject to the whims of its political leadership. In an economic sense China is an emerging third world country with virtually no modern infrastructure. Chinese foreign policy is childish and is rooted in the gunboat diplomacy that it learned from the European powers in the 19th Century and from the Japanese in the early 20th Century. Its most recent foreign policy experience under the Communists was as a Soviet card against the United States for twenty years and then as an American card against the Soviet Union for the next twenty. Only recently has China emerged from the shadows of other political entities to cast its own long shadow.
Now longtime readers may be confused by this unsual political diatribe and new readers who (given the title of this newsletter) hoped for some discourse on the economy may be even more confused. But bear with me; there is significant long term economic import to the events of yesterday. Just as good politicians can't survive a bad economy, a good economy can't survive bad politicians. Hong Kong's economy and its financial strength will not survive the ministrations of its new political master. But for the next few years China will use the financial expertise and capital of Hong Kong to attract much needed foreign investment. Some commentators see the handover of Hong Kong as a virus that will infiltrate the Chinese mainland and hasten the introduction of democratic reform. It is far safer to view Hong Kong as a luscious fruit that will be sucked dry by the Chinese dragon, providing short term benefit to the mainland and leaving Hong Kong as a dried out husk.

....The handover of Hong Kong has increased significantly the financial strength of a major adversary. Fortunately the PRC government will likely kill this golden goose at the first sign of discontent. At that point I hope rational national interest replaces the lure of China's markets in formulating our foreign policy.

Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
The Amazing Trader
Forex Opportunities
Forex Affiliates
Forex CopyTrading
GVI Forex