User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex Forum     ← Back to Forums

Sort Order: Latest Post on Top - Latest Post Last            Post Reply

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  11:22:35 GMT - 03/06/2014  

Daily Forex Trading Outlook

Dies ECB act logically or disappoint?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  10:42:12 GMT - 03/06/2014  
The ECB decision at 12.45 and the press conference 45 minutes later will be the main focus today. With Februaryís inflation marginally stronger than anticpated at 0.8%, expectations that the ECB would be rushed into further policy stimulus at this meeting have faded. Yet with further disinflation expected, the debate about further stimulus is likely to persist. The problem for the ECB is that there are few easy options left. The refi rate is already too low to provide additional meaningful stimulus. We also doubt the ECB will reduce its deposit rate to negative territory. Some officials have been discussing ceasing sterlising the ECBís Securities Market Programme holdings. This would in effect be quantitative easing. With pressure for immediate action reduced, we think policy will be unchanged today. But the press conference will be interesting to guide the immediate outlook. ...

Lloyds Bank Daily Economic Outlook

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  10:37:27 GMT - 03/06/2014  
This covers the possible ECB moves

Quotes from RBC Capital Markets:

-EUR: There are many balls in the air heading into today's ECB meeting, but the FX market reaction will generally be driven by three factors (1) the refi rate announcement (2) the deposit rate announcement (3) the rest, that all comes in the press conference 45 minutes later. On the refi rate, RBC is with the minority view that the ECB will cut today (25% of analysts expect either a 10 or 15bp cut).

-As was the case with the unexpected cut in November, however, any resulting EUR weakness will likely be short-lived and particularly so if the market perceives a refi rate cut as a substitute for more aggressive easing. A depo rate cut (expected by almost no one - just one economist the Bloomberg survey) would clearly be a much more negative development.

-At the press conference there are more variables to consider. Halting sterilisation of the SMP bond holdings is widely, though not universally, expected. Such a move would have limited practical consequences, amounting to just 2% of EZ nominal GDP or 3% of outstanding government bonds.

-For comparison, the Fed, BoE and BoJ QE programmes are all 10 to 15 times bigger on both ratios. As a signal that previously unpalatable policy options are now open, however, EUR might take this news more negatively. As well as other possible liquidity measures, the final factor to watch is the 2016 inflation forecast (the first time the ECB has published one) where a central projection below 1.6-1.7% would be taken as signaling the risk of more easing in the future.

Source: FXWire Pro - Research & Analysis

jkt abel  10:34:18 GMT - 03/06/2014  
agree, anything about cuts or easing from ECB is nonsense, EU is just about Germany, the rest is nonexistent.

GVI Forex Blog  10:23:29 GMT - 03/06/2014  
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: GB- Bank of England, European Central Bank, US- Productivity, Weekly Jobless, Factory Orders, Natural Gas, CA- Ivey PMI

The outlook for the ECB policy decision today is mixed. Some expect a policy easing, but I expect no rate changes or QE. Flash February Eurozone HICP data ticked and the German Bundesbank is said not to favor of a rate cut.

Wide Range of Possible ECB Decisions Seen Today. Bank of England Seen Steady

Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
The Amazing Trader
Forex Opportunities
Forex Affiliates
Forex CopyTrading
GVI Forex