Expect U.S. economic weakness, a weaker USD and get out of longer dated U.S. bonds. Higher bond yields in the U.S. will hit the stock market, but the rotation will be hard to trade. Higher yields will hit stocks.... which will lead to a fall in yields..... so it's a bit circular but ultimately U.S. financial markets are at risk.
ib 13:03 - the Bottom Line = ?
buy Gold; sub 1330 nixes
Paris ib 13:03:07 GMT - 03/06/2014
' While it is easy and often enjoyable to distract oneself with daily drudgery such as who will bomb whom (if not so enjoyable for those on the receiving end of said bombs), the key word in the sentence is just one: "distract" '
' Larry Kotlikoff: Our country is broke. Itís not broke in 50 years or 30 years or 10 years. Itís broke today. '
Meanwhile we get all sort of excitement around NFP and what Central Banks may do or not do regarding official rate policy.
"The Obama administration - especially the neo-cons of the "F**k the EU" kind - has lost is power play. And for Moscow, it has no interlocutor in Kiev because it considers the regime-changers illegal. Moscow also regards "Europe" as a bunch of pampered whining losers - with no common foreign policy to boot."
Meanwhile I can't help wondering about the deafening silence surrounding the U.S. funding and refunding schedule for this year. Billions up for auction, bond yields not falling dramatically, China taking its money home...... what you got is a situation where the U.S.'s economic lifeline (also known as that endless stream of foreign capital inflows) has dried up. And that is a very small exit door if we actually get foreign capital flight. In any case what you don't have is a case for assuming the U.S. economic recovery does anything but fail. Gonna be an interesting week next week.
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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