GBP
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:16 GMT 03/10/2014
3/10/2014 10:15:28 AM (UK) BoE's Bean: Against BoE getting too hung up on the precise date it expects to start raising rates, unlikely to see rates above 2-3% for some time
- More GBP strength could damage rebalancing process, would hold back exports.
- There are clear signs the UK recovery is underway, to return to pre-crisis productivity growth eventually.
- Business investment to take over from household demand as key driver of recovery.
- Keeping a close watch on housing, low supply and high rate of lending creates risks.
- Follow up: - BOE to sell GILTs only when recovery is assured, BOE may not be able to sell all GILTS it has purchased
- Current natural unemployment rate expected at 6-6.5%
- Past experience argues against benefit of intervening on Sterling, if Sterling appreciates in value, policy would remain lower for a longer period
- May take approx 3 years before the EMU recovery can become stronger
re eurgbp, to be clear, any move to 8275/80 seen as correctional with a stronger weekly close expected following last weeks bullish breakout. only below 8250 picture changes to bearish and a retest of 8167 support.
london red 08:07:47 GMT - 03/10/2014
bit of support for cable at 16688 a past fib. further at 16640 and then 16605. eurgbp has started firm so looks like we are going up before we fill in last weeks range. approaching res at 8330 so have morning cable short at first support mentioned.
eurgbp expected to see 8275/80 this week, if not then a move through 8350 almost certain by end of week.
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