be realistic. Russia's holdings of US Govies was last reported around 139 bln. If one seller had arrived then yields would have ratcheted considerably higher. To even think that Russia was the main seller is naive
Mtl JP 21:11:18 GMT - 03/14/2014
what Kerry does probably depends to big degree on how much he is willing to digest orders from puppet master Nuland
- maybe he resigns ?
- maybe he causes a putch and orchestrates Nuland's delegation to some outpost equivalent to kamchatka ?
currently it seems likeKerry's situation remains fluid
Paris ib 20:49:27 GMT - 03/14/2014
JP - yeah you too.
Kerry's opinion really is of no interest to me. I only care about what he does.
Mtl JP 20:45:01 GMT - 03/14/2014
I suggest that Kerry and the gang that claims to represent is of interest to you. They have the power to affect the profit/loss in your trading account or, and perhaps more importantly, your happiness in life.
As for me I have ordered an appointment in a newly opened "mancave" style barbershop: I want a hot cream shave, manicure and they have a stack of pristine condition old Playboy mags to "read" . Some old-style traditions that are making a comeback are hard to beat as little pleasures of life.
Mtl JP 20:34:35 GMT - 03/14/2014
no trick. just killing time with trivia
re the $100 billion dump out of US treasuries
- if the russian really did that... he is even smarter than most gave him credit: first ones to take the money out.. gets full value
Paris ib 20:31:03 GMT - 03/14/2014
JP - just checked the bit you were actually replying to.... which is not what I originally thought. Ooops.
The media circus, the elections.... seriously do they want us to care? I just don't believe any of it any more. So they want to destabilise Russia and maybe China for nefarious reasons. Do they really care if we believe it's all for noble causes? I mean seriously. If the people in Crimea want to vote, that's fine by me. Kerry's opinion is of absolutely no interest to me at all.
Paris ib 20:26:40 GMT - 03/14/2014
JP - who knows? We got the data. Take or leave the conjecture. Is that some kind of trick question?
Mtl JP 20:12:17 GMT - 03/14/2014
ib 17:08 - the reasons may be varied ... tuff to make a judgement on that issue. For fun... have you played the game called Risk ?
There is a million dollar question in it. which country physically neighbored with Alaska
london red 17:50:19 GMT - 03/14/2014
thanks nh, yes you are quite right. i say a third time at 101.20 and it'll be third time lucky for usd bears, otherwise drifts. but for me gap is inevitable as while the west discusses, putin does. the benefits of dictatorship i suppose.
Livingston nh 17:46:55 GMT - 03/14/2014
red - re:USD/JPY 101.20 -- looks to me on daily that 144ema (101.13) is the last ma - today's close around that level puts wkly close below 21wk ma w/ a lot of white space below to 55 ema (~98.40)
IMO - if it follows SPX we might get a spike below 100 today or Monday (??) - BUT yen trade = humility
Paris ib 17:08:21 GMT - 03/14/2014
Joe I still don't get why they need to go through this whole charade: the media, the press conferences, the elections. It's all just a farce and less and less people pay any attention or participate. We just get with the shrapnel while they play their stupid game. Guaranteed what you end up with is more taxes, more surveillance, higher utility costs, less choice. It's grotesque.
Cambridge Joe 17:04:50 GMT - 03/14/2014
ib it's called consultation. They consult, find out what your view point is, and then do exactly what they want to anyway.
It help to create / maintain the illusion of choice.
Try working with or for a large corporation, when you hear the word 'consult' be afraid, or at least somewhat concerned !
Paris ib 17:02:44 GMT - 03/14/2014
They are red. What is not obvious is what the 'international community' which Kerry supposedly represents will do about it. Invade Crimea? Or merely support the team of Neo-Nazis who decide to invade Crimea? I'd guess at the second option.
london red 17:00:28 GMT - 03/14/2014
i would have thought putins view on that would be obvious.
Mtl JP 16:58:12 GMT - 03/14/2014
john 16:54 had u heeded my Mtl JP 16:01...
Paris ib 16:57:41 GMT - 03/14/2014
I could stand it if I thought they were even trying to tell the truth. But that's not the case. I do wonder why they bother though. I mean when push came to shove there was NO POPULAR support for the attack on Iraq and massive rallies against it and they went in anyway. So why are they bothering with the narrative? They didn't with Libya, just went in. I don't buy the idea that they need our consent. That's rubbish. Why continue with the farce? There is no democracy. We know that.
GVI Forex john 16:54:23 GMT - 03/14/2014
These guys wear me down with their endless meaningless words.
Paris ib 16:44:51 GMT - 03/14/2014
Russia will respect the outcome of the referendum.
GVI Forex john 16:43:53 GMT - 03/14/2014
All we will know new on Monday is Putin's immediate response to the Ukraine referendum. The outlook for the vote is not in doubt
london red 16:34:36 GMT - 03/14/2014
nh, trying to understand the thinking on usdjpy long over the weekend. the vote will take place and the result will be a landslide yes for joining russia. the majority there are russian speaking, have ties with russia or are indeed russian. there is no need to rig this one.
so is the usdjpy holding above 101.20 because it expects the illegal crimea parliament to not go ahead with the vote, or for russia to condemn it? (if so good luck with that) or is it being bid with the hope of a breakthrough in talks with russia (again good luck) or is it just following the s&p?
if we close at or above 101.20 then we will probably gap down to 100.75 on sunday night following the inevitable taking place of vote and result. unless i am missing something.
GVI Forex john 16:33:14 GMT - 03/14/2014
Mtl JP 16:31:56 GMT - 03/14/2014
Kerry probably waiting for instructions from his puppet master
Paris ib 16:30:58 GMT - 03/14/2014
JP - absolutely. And much more effective in my opinion. Never go to war on the battle ground of your enemy's choosing.
Paris ib 16:29:10 GMT - 03/14/2014
nh I believe they have loonies in charge in the Ukraine at the moment.
If I were looking to counter this move I would go the financial route no doubt. USD 100 billion is a substantial opening gambit.
Mtl JP 16:28:42 GMT - 03/14/2014
that - "if the response is financial" - would be preferable would it not ? at least and hopefully for the GV trading crowd
Livingston nh 16:26:39 GMT - 03/14/2014
ib, this is plain vanilla stuff - don't get worked up by anything you read or hear -- Putin knows what he is going to do, US, EU, NATO know their roles - only one that can screw up the show is Ukraine if it ad-libs and moves off script
Paris ib 16:17:04 GMT - 03/14/2014
JP no idea about Martin Dempsey. What a weird situation. This referendum is going ahead and then what? Do we get an attack by the Neo-Nazis? There is talk that Blackwater is over in the Ukraine. There were Nato snipers there. Talk of Jihadis getting involved. Obviously there is a very concerted effort underway to create chaos in the Ukraine. So far Russia's response has been muted. Without a massive escalation that will continue so this might be a slow burn issue. Meanwhile it looks to me that what's going on in the Treasury market (even though it hasn't showed up in yields) may be a pre-emptive response. If so the Russian Chinese delegation may have just started to apply pressure to the U.S. pressure points. No doubt the U.S. would prefer a military conflict (that's what they are geared up for after all: war) but if the response is financial then this may not go the way the war mongering neo-cons would like.
Mtl JP 16:10:07 GMT - 03/14/2014
ib 15:59 can u find out what Martin Dempsey is doing atm ?
couple of days ago he suggested that "he's been talking to his military counterparts in Russia, but he's also sending a clear message to Ukraine and members of NATO that the U.S. military will respond militarily if necessary." which raises some questions seeing as Ukraine is not a NATO member and there not subject to article 5
Livingston nh 16:07:59 GMT - 03/14/2014
anybody remember Baker closed door last chance meeting w/ Iraq counterpart b4 Gulf War?? -- afternoon markets waited, hoped and then DOWN
These things never get resolved so ...
Mtl JP 16:01:18 GMT - 03/14/2014
john respectully suggest to set your price alarm for a breakout either way on one or two or three pairs of your riskoff choice representation and zzzz in the meantime IF you think Kerry may eventually be a market mover
Paris ib 15:59:07 GMT - 03/14/2014
The Russian has already spoken apparently. Says differences remain, they will respect the outcome of the referendum, concerned about security in the Ukraine, says Kerry did not threaten anything but that sanctions would be counter productive. That's what I heard so far.
still waiting for Kerry. Reporters have been sitting there for a couple of hours now. Exciting job?
Paris ib 14:27:52 GMT - 03/14/2014
Now it's a joint U.S. - Russia press briefing?
Paris ib 14:25:13 GMT - 03/14/2014
The vote goes ahead for sure. Where that leaves Kerry I'm not sure. Is he going to make some goodwill trips to the Ukraine and shake hands with the Neo-Nazis who staged the recent coup? That would be a good look. Mind you, its been done before.
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