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london red  20:30:34 GMT - 09/24/2014  
Re loonie agree. Went long at 61 with stop tight as a duck arse and got stopped. Its close at/near lod so 11029 fib doable tomorrow. It either turns up there or risk is to 10950 and there you fancy a run all the way up to 11123 fib. We were a point short today. Best dollar countertrend play of the day.


Livingston nh  20:26:12 GMT - 09/24/2014  
jp - move stops up on above 1.11 in either time frame


Livingston nh  20:22:00 GMT - 09/24/2014  
jp - depends on trading Time Bubble -- 4 hr 1.1030, daily 1.096 -- 1.1250 on either time frame would be target


Mtl JP  20:16:25 GMT - 09/24/2014  
what s/l on long usdcad ?


Livingston nh  20:08:56 GMT - 09/24/2014  
This is the chance to jump on the USD/JPY and USD/CAD


Livingston nh  19:05:47 GMT - 09/24/2014  
JP - in context US enforcement suffers when Sovereign nation states refuse the extra territorial reach of the US LAW - this is right and proper use of sovereign power

Proportionality and step by step sanctions or military engagement is STUPID -- it takes too much time and changes the relative negotiating positions // ALL IN early so the matter is settled - only the weak side should wish proportional response


Mtl JP  18:19:18 GMT - 09/24/2014  
nh you claimed that "the loss of US enforcement is an unmeasurable risk to the US gov't". What is up with this "proportionate military action" - it can't be a financial restraint can it ?


london red  14:43:08 GMT - 03/20/2014  
JP, 40/50 aligns a bunch of mumbo jumbo the type of cloud etc that i dont rate but know a lot follow which means i have to note the levels. It kept the pair honest yest on closing basis and thus far today. As you say significant business done at those levels.


Mtl JP  14:30:09 GMT - 03/20/2014  
an observation:
usdyen hit 102.50 ... BUT the spread just at that moment went nearly 3x as wide as few moments before 102.5x got hit.
fwiw


GVI Forex john   12:23:04 GMT - 03/20/2014  
Expect closer scrutiny of Weekly Jobless Claims data from today onward.


GVI Forex john   12:15:49 GMT - 03/20/2014  
USDJPY and S&P futures back in line. USDJPY held steady while S&P futures are of their lows.


Livingston nh  12:06:48 GMT - 03/20/2014  
1. JP - the silly escalation step by step (red lines again?) always fails in every social, financial or military context -- from the US point of view a regime of sanction tests the patience of many with the US application of extra territorial application (I thought the Swiss would have put an end to the silliness BUT..) -- the loss of Russian business is a measurable risk to US companies but the loss of US enforcement is an unmeasurable risk to the US gov't

2. Yellen's transparency creds would be greatly enhanced and tea leaf readers unemployed if the FOMC published Transcripts instead of Minutes


GVI Forex john   11:56:07 GMT - 03/20/2014  
JM- On this we can agree to disagree. I don't think this sort of future policy guidance would be put in the statement. This was a gentle warning that extraordinary ease is not going to go on forever.


Mtl JP  11:53:22 GMT - 03/20/2014  
nh yesty 100 business "leaders" - they have businesses in Russia - met w/0 around the roundtable. no result of the meeting was made public


NY JM  11:45:36 GMT - 03/20/2014  
JP, I think she did not intend to send a signal as if this was the case, it would have come out in the statement.

What I don't know is whether there will be damage control although that is a risk.


Livingston nh  11:45:14 GMT - 03/20/2014  
The Bond Lady is starting to warm up (again!) so maybe this protracted Fed episode comes to an end - BUT for today see if Merkel's EU puts together a sanction package that is painful for the members as well Russia -- the market will start to assess financial risk of the economic basket case that is Ukraine

10 yr Treasury yields are still subject to flight to quality pressures from Ukraine and elsewhere


Mtl JP  11:43:46 GMT - 03/20/2014  
john that sounds like a bet then !
and that the FED is less dovish than ECB or the BoJ
on relative basis

how does the FED fit against the BoE ? - tia


GVI Forex john   11:39:10 GMT - 03/20/2014  
JP- Personally, I don't see any "damage" to control. I think the Fed Board is increasingly worried about the long-term risks of all the money they have been printing.


Syd sf  11:37:41 GMT - 03/20/2014  
London / NYK like to buy $yen on rising rates

but in Asia we sell $yen on weak stocks .. so you have 2 dynamics at play there.

but also weak Gold = weak $yen crosses .. so even though $yen made a new daily high - crosses still lower.

as I said to SFX before - you got to take each Asian session separately.

we have to wait for these sessions to play out - but Gold making new low .. would mean sell audusd and buy $cad in Asia again tomorrow... assuming this theme keeps playing out.


Mtl JP  11:29:34 GMT - 03/20/2014  
john 11:17 - If "they" come out with damage control ... it will mean that the unabashed money printing has created way more problems - so they decided to "taper" it back - but the system is addicted to the 'free money' . An attempt at damage control can be considered as an attempt at not letting things get away from "them".


GVI Forex john   11:22:21 GMT - 03/20/2014  
At this hour, the USDJPY and S&P futures are diverging, It seems to me that if the Fed is moving onto a normalization path for policy, it would be because the economy is finally starting to recover. I don't see how better growth with low inflation would not be positive for stocks?

Trading Scenarios?


GVI Forex john   11:17:00 GMT - 03/20/2014  
I have to admit, I was blindsided by Yellen yesterday announcing the apparent Fed timeline for the start of a normalization of monetary policy. If there wa a gaffe it was only in announcing the timeline. I notice in watching her that she paused and carefully selected her words. I guess we all were expecting U.S. rates to remain at zero forever?

Obviously the tightening will be data-dependent. Expect the focus of the markets will be on U.S, employment and inflation data over the next year or so. The first hurdle will be if U.S. jobs data in the first two months were adversely-impacted by the weather. That timeline could change if the economy is not improving. I indicated last weekend that I felt the global economy has been improving. Now we need a sustained improvement in the data to confirm it.

A rebounding U.S. economy WOULD be USD supportive. You can see that in the performance of the EUR since she made her comments.






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