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Livingston nh  15:44:44 GMT - 03/21/2014  
Consider the period of taper as the usual interregnum between the time the Fed STOPS cutting rates and the first hike -- this is usually a period of strong economic growth

Paris ib  14:31:27 GMT - 03/21/2014  
Flip there is a whole lot of paper rolling over in the States this year. Next week's auction should be interesting. And then there is geopolitics with the U.S. and the 'Pacific Pivot', which some read as a threat to China, guaranteed to reduce Chinese appetite for U.S. debt..... so U.S. bond yields rise as buyers dry up. Rates are going higher in the States for sure. If they're lucky that will slow but not halt the slide in the USD.

This is all about rebalancing. Ultimately that is good but it will leave us in a different world.

Brisbane Flip  14:15:25 GMT - 03/21/2014  
FWIW I believe the major rationale for QE was because the US budget deficit was 1.4 trillion. That was even enough for China to choke on.
This year the deficit it predicted to be 560bio. While unemployment etc are great cover the real reason was someone needed to buy this crap. Now they don't.

Brisbane Flip  14:10:29 GMT - 03/21/2014  
John Greg Ip was just plagiarising me on GVI - hahaha

Paris ib  14:07:20 GMT - 03/21/2014  
Brisbane Flip I think Yellen was being straight about where rates are heading. I don't think she did full disclosure on WHY they are heading higher. I think in part the reason rates are headed higher is an attempt to prevent a panic on the USD. At present, particularly with capital exiting, domestic savings in the United States are too low and domestic borrowing is too high. The way this is corrected is with higher domestic interest rates.... higher rates provide incentive for savers and a disincentive for borrowers. That would happen with or without the FED. Yellen is bowing to the inevitable. Rates have to rise in the United States to bring capital markets into greater balance. And they are bond yields have been on the rise for over a year.

GVI Forex john   14:06:23 GMT - 03/21/2014  
I heard Grep Ip (former press mouthpiece for Greenspan) say yesterday that if Yellen made a "gaffe" it was that she told the truth, which you never do in Washington. Also that she did not pull the six month period out of thin air.

Brisbane Flip  14:00:59 GMT - 03/21/2014  
Ib Yellen was being straight.
You raise rates because you think the economy is stronger. Look at history. The beginning of rate hikes has actually coincided with strong economy. Japan never raised rates because they were f..ked.
Rates to be raised in 2015 means 8 years after GFC. It's hardly a stretch.

Paris ib  13:55:30 GMT - 03/21/2014  
I love how we have a new high on the S and P following a move to tighten monetary policy because the market has convinced itself THAT SHE DIDN'T REALLY MEAN IT. Where is the evidence that she didn't really mean it?

Paris ib  13:41:50 GMT - 03/21/2014  
Honestly John these weirdos drive me nuts. And they hold to this strange idea that somehow at some point we will all be able to borrow money for free (no cost) if they just nationalise the FED. What they mean, of course, is that they want to see no credit available to anyone - because it's all a plot. Fractional Reserve Banking was the KEY to the Renaissance. It paid for the Renaissance. But no, let's go back to fleas and open sewers and feudalism. Ron Paul has a lot to answer for.

GVI Forex john   13:36:25 GMT - 03/21/2014  
ib- suggest you stop reading when you first see the word "fiat"...

Paris ib  13:31:28 GMT - 03/21/2014  
At the same time I'm seeing the lunatic fringe come out with total insanity. What is going on? Why this extremism?? I don't get it. How these people can call themselves analysts or economists is beyond me. They belong in a cult somewhere.

It all makes me a bit weary and it's all untradeable noise.

Prediction of Mass Starvation

Paris ib  13:24:41 GMT - 03/21/2014  
Yes the FED made it clear it won't be raising rates tomorrow. That said, the change in tone was beyond doubt a move towards a tighter bias. This does not represent an easing of policy but the reverse. Why does everyone feel the necessity to 'spin' this? We are at a point where rates have bottomed. From here they rise. The FED (and other Central Banks) are out of ammo. Economic activity will not be supported by interest rate policy, neither is there any room for fiscal easing. So the economy has had the training wheel taken off. At the same time in the case of the U.S. supporting capital inflows have reversed. That is: foreign capital is exiting. None of this information is positive for the economy going forward. That is the reality as I see it. As far as I can tell the rest is just jaw boning.

GVIForex 13:04:42 GMT - 03/21/2014  
Kocherlakota (Dove)

3/21/2014 9:00:34 AM
(US) Fed's Kocherlakota: Highlights the new guidance from the Fed weakens its commitment to the 2% inflation target, supportive of guidance that fed funds rate will remain low- Notes that the new guidance also does not provide any information on the speed at which the Fed wants to reach full employment

- Threshold guidance was effective, would have supported statements that pledged to keep low rates until unemployment went below 5.5%

- Source

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