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Mtl JP  18:24:18 GMT - 04/03/2014  
at 6.7% = with even if +/- 225k... how many years needed to reach "full employment" ?


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  17:52:08 GMT - 04/03/2014  
Maybe the # is 225k?

Dollar should be supported into NFP based on these forecasts but have to average the March # with 1st two months of the year. Jan 129k and Feb 175k. Would need +265k to get to an avg of 190k. .

From what I hear 190k is the average NFP growth


london red  17:49:17 GMT - 04/03/2014  
Yep almost worth a punt on a bad number will have to see how dice fall before number but most now have moved above 200k with 210-225 avg whisper. Some had 250+ a couple weeks ago to be fair eg. Eg DB raised to 275 from 225 20th march fwiw


Mtl JP  17:46:29 GMT - 04/03/2014  
lets skip the "depends".

regardless of the 250K being bandied about now by one or two opinionators a print over 200K should see dollar pop up some.
If I look at the rolling average, print at or below 165K would probably make players re-evaluate Janet's tapering calendar


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  17:37:41 GMT - 04/03/2014  
JP depends on whether you look at the consensus or whisper. forecasts.


dc CB  17:24:58 GMT - 04/03/2014  
today's Not-POMO
$96 bil

Don't call it free money



Mtl JP  17:20:13 GMT - 04/03/2014  
what is the range of the NFP forecast ?


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  17:07:40 GMT - 04/03/2014  
Par, forecasts are being marked up to 200k+

UBS is calling for +250k


Mtl JP  17:03:01 GMT - 04/03/2014  
euro is currently allergic to the 100dma
too bad


PAR 17:02:55 GMT - 04/03/2014  
Euro holding support at 1.3690 , now moving back up in anticipation of not too brilliant NFP data . Maybe some HFT already know the figures ? Is the forex market also rigged ?


Mtl JP  16:54:18 GMT - 04/03/2014  
wow-wee .. usdcad took almost another hour to climb 5 more pips..


GVI Forex john   16:24:50 GMT - 04/03/2014  
Not surprisingly, we have been seeing street estimates for NFP tomorrow rising from the +200K consensus to 225-250K. The history over the past several years has been for optimistic consensus NFP estimates not to be met. Maybe tomorrow things will change?


Mtl JP  15:47:40 GMT - 04/03/2014  
1.1040...
kitching
painfully slow
-
so what is the deal with the "Your Best Trade Today"
not only do you need to guess the direction and magnitude BUT also the winning pony pair. every day.
--
I am glad not have chosen to focus on eur/x;
it is a good thing there are other ponies to bet on.


dc CB  14:21:07 GMT - 04/03/2014  
"Who knows if they will be correct? but the odds favor a "good" number."

of course we'll have a good number. Grandma Yellen told us this that "they" will no longer have an employment target.
SnP 1900 and Beyond. If the market breaks it's all the fault of the HFT. The Goat has been staked.


GVI Forex john   14:15:27 GMT - 04/03/2014  
ADP, Services PMI, Employment sub-component of Services PMI, and Weekly Jobless all point to a decent NFP report tomorrow.

Who knows if they will be correct? but the odds favor a "good" number.


NY JM  14:09:54 GMT - 04/03/2014  
Low has been around 1.3708


London Chris  14:08:28 GMT - 04/03/2014  
Is anyone shorting the eurusd? Bulls are pretty quiet. eurjpy keeping a lid on usdjpy so it seems.


GVI Forex john   13:36:08 GMT - 04/03/2014  
DJIA now in record high territory. First time this year (16,593 last) . USDJPY testing above 104.00. U.S. PMIs upcoming.


Mtl JP  10:12:06 GMT - 04/03/2014  

Buy USDCAD
Entry: market Target: 1.1040/50 Stop: <1.0975
g/l


GVI Forex john   09:09:09 GMT - 04/03/2014  
Equity rally in the U.S. appears to have carried forward to Japan earlier. JPY correlation trade worked. Problem is always carry-through in Europe and U.S. subsequently.

ECB decision in a little while should not be a JPY event?


Mtl JP  01:17:32 GMT - 04/03/2014  
looks like after little hesitation at the asia start Nikkei finally decided to share in some of the NY session's fever


Mtl JP  20:52:20 GMT - 04/02/2014  
john yen will probably depend on how Nikkei trades and if US enthusiasm carriers over into it. one does not want to see rally in the yen and the Nikkei go the other way , does one


GVI Forex john   20:38:29 GMT - 04/02/2014  
June Nilkkei futures 15,080 +180pts cash Niikkei closed Tuesday @ 14946 +154pts


GVI Forex john   20:31:27 GMT - 04/02/2014  
New record high close for S&P. DJIA closes a couple of points
shy of a new record.

Maybe could give USDJPY a boost overnight?


bali sja  18:00:47 GMT - 04/02/2014  
well put PAR, i agree with you
no matter what comes out from ECB tomorrow, it will be a win-win situation for euro, charts agree with that too IMO


PAR 17:56:03 GMT - 04/02/2014  
Whatever ECB does Cut or No Cut will always be positive for the Euro . No cut we will talk about high European interest rates boosting the Euro . Cut we will be talking about ECB stimilus boosting the Euro .

And Yellen , she will talk about Dorine and Jermaine , lowering the dollar .


Mtl JP  17:10:07 GMT - 04/02/2014  
 
and global-view player not only publicly foresaw but played those characters... ahead of their time:
Jerusalem Kb 22:33 GMT April 1, 2014
Pipshunter: Reply
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.3795 Target: 1.3680 Stop: 1.3850
Sold


NY JM  16:39:15 GMT - 04/02/2014  
EUR longs got cold feet to hedge against a just in case ECB day tomorrow.


Mtl JP  15:59:52 GMT - 04/02/2014  
so at first S&P rallies and dlryen laggs
then S&P pulls back some usdyen pops some...
one of those "just shoot me" days
-
euro 50 support appears stronger than I had initially estimated as minor


Mtl JP  15:25:53 GMT - 04/02/2014  
minor up-sloping t-line support on the euro hourly at 52


Livingston nh  14:23:16 GMT - 04/02/2014  
Stox are trading w/ one eye on FI - SPX 1867 is a test lvl for this qtr end bounce -- higher rates might provide the knee jerk reaction in currency and stox


Mtl JP  14:12:12 GMT - 04/02/2014  
eur/$ targeting 50 day 1.3729 test


NY JM  13:45:04 GMT - 04/02/2014  
It feels like the calm before the next storm


GVI Forex john   13:05:55 GMT - 04/02/2014  
With the ADP data out of the way, the focus turns now to the ECB policy decision tomorrow. Its a toss-up on whether they ease or not. It seems the Germans never favor policy ease, and they have the strongest influence on policy decisions, so I have no strong opinions either way on whether they ease. Nevertheless, a possible policy easing is the focus of the markets heading into Thursday and that should be stocks supportive.

The ADP data were not a disaster, so the expectations for a dovish Fed have eased a bit. the 10-yr last was 2.79% +2bp vs. 2.77% before the data. This is how a data-dependent market works.

S&P futures are now unchanged on the day and USDJPY is now lower as a result.



GVI Forex john   11:13:45 GMT - 04/02/2014  
Pretty Clear from the overnight charts that spot USDJPY was following the Nikkei, which followed the rally in the S&P yesterday.

Of course the Nikkei futures follows the S&P in the hours when the cash equity market in Japan is closed. So far today, there have been no divergences between the S&P futures and USDJPY.

Today the ADP Private Payroll data in about an hour will set the U.S. tone for the rest of the week. The SURPRISE will be if the weather related do NOT start to wash out street estimates are for a level of something around +190K after 139K in February.



GVI Forex john   22:04:30 GMT - 04/01/2014  
fwiw new record high close for S&P 1885.52
also new HOD set 1886.


Livingston nh  18:59:05 GMT - 04/01/2014  
67 is the measure


GVI Forex john   18:10:47 GMT - 04/01/2014  
S&P all-time high coming in today WAS 1883.97. HOD now [email protected] 1884.60 (new all-time intra-day high). Now hatching for a close above old intra-day high to confirm. Recall USDJPY closely correlated to S&P.


GVI Forex john   14:18:56 GMT - 04/01/2014  
The Mfg PMIs are all out. Below find my SUBJECTIVE evaluations of the majors broken down by region...

Summary of March Mfg PMIs

Far East
AU- Weak
CN- Mixed but weak
JA- Weaker but in uptrend
JA- Tankan weak

Europe
EZ- Weaker, but in a rising trend
DE- Weaker, but in a rising uptrend
FR- Rising sharply from very weak level
CH- Weaker within a stabilizing pattern
GB- Weaker off its peaks

North America
CA- Better in a broadly flat pattern
US- Markit: Weaker in a rising pattern
US- ISM: Modestly better in a weakening pattern




GVI Forex john   13:44:16 GMT - 04/01/2014  
for those following the stock correlations, S&P opening higher . Last 1878 +7, USDJPY correlation has been close all day with no significant divergences.

Intra-Day cash market all-time high is 1884 only about 6pts away.



dc CB  11:50:08 GMT - 04/01/2014  
ZH:


Yesterday was window dressing day (facilitated at just the right time by Yellen's most dovish commentary to date) not only for the hedge fund and vacuum tube community, but also for banks, which as we reported received a record $242 billion in Treasurys from the Fed via an all time high reverse repo. Which means that today, as the repo unwinds, the system will be flooded with over $100 billion.

This brings us to the topic of what stocks may do today - while futures are already solidly in the green, perhaps on the abysmal Japanese Tankan results, or China's Schrodinger economy, which has been growing and contracting ever since 2012, and posted PMIs that both beat and missed, or maybe it was the record high Italian unemployment reported overnight - will likely focus on just one thing: how to frontrun April performance in the first millisecond of trading.

"Best Month For Stocks" Begins With Modest Overnight Futures Levitation



nw kw  11:14:16 GMT - 04/01/2014  
weak not crushed from fed. but usa rents are up so go bonds some growth he he add china QE


GVI Forex john   11:11:18 GMT - 04/01/2014  
In our Summary I notice the n=most frequently used word is "weak".

thoughts?


Mtl JP  10:58:23 GMT - 04/01/2014  
tax hike from 5% to 8% is not a 5% increase.
rather, it is a 60% increase

nice IF you can get it, nasty ugly YOU the one having to pay it.

the visionary numbuts that Abe is will skewer his citizenry with a hike to 10% sales tax level (a 25% hike from the 8% level) in October 2015 again.


GVI Forex john   10:51:16 GMT - 04/01/2014  
We posted part the RBA text because they continue (indirectly) to talk down the AUD. Its unusual, but it happens, for a central bank to talk down its currency. Note below that Chinese PMI data were weak. A slowing Chinese economy is a weight on Australian growth and a negative for the AUD.


GVI Forex john   10:39:29 GMT - 04/01/2014  
Nice correlation in the S&P to USDJPY pair today.

Check out Tankan chart below, the final item on the chart is the respondents FORECAST for the readings for early July. Clearly there a lot of worry about the impact of a 5% sales tax increase that went into effect today. Many seeing the economy weakening in response to it. The JPY is weaker vs. the USD and EUR as a result.


nw kw  20:57:26 GMT - 03/31/2014  
where are duck hunters xeur strength


dc CB  20:20:23 GMT - 03/31/2014  
The last time banks scrambled to pad their books into the quarter end, and come begging at the front door of the NY Fed's Liberty 33 office, was on the last day of Q4 and 2013, when nearly $200 billion in Treasurys were handed out by the Fed to over 100 counterparties in what was the largest reverse repo operation conducted by Ben Bernanke, and his brand new Fixed-Rate Reverse Repo operation, in history.

That was the record until today, when just over an hour ago the Fed disclosed that as part of its most recent reverse repo operation, it had handed out to 93 dealer banks and other financial intermediaries, both foreign and domestic, some $242 billion in Treasurys in what is now the biggest reverse repo operation in history, a privilege for which the collateral-starved banks paid the Fed the king's ransom of 0.05% in annual interest, i.e., nothing.

$242 Billion: That Is How Much Record "Window Dressing" Banks Got Today Thanks To The Fed



GVI Forex john   18:57:39 GMT - 03/31/2014  
Late session recovery of USDJPY is finally bringing S&P and USDJPY back into line with one another. Interesting that the S&P was not dragged down by USDJPY pair today. I still feel this is a crazy correlation..


GVI Forex john   16:04:05 GMT - 03/31/2014  
S&P to USDJPY divergence holding...unusual.


Mtl JP  15:50:38 GMT - 03/31/2014  
red tom is TANKAN day.
numbnuts Abe is thinking that a hike in sales tax is going to get japanfolk to spend spend (so why not have 50% sales tax hikes every month , eh ? if it is such a genius formula to prod people into spending)
In any case it is lining up to be a race between devalue-to-stimulate-exports experts such as Abe and Poloz


Mtl JP  15:26:44 GMT - 03/31/2014  
but IF u turn it around , maybe Yellen is helping to get what she wants (lower dlr) and that would likely make at least two folk happy: her and Jack. as long as Gold is not rocketing UP in a massive dumping of the usd, there is no dlr rout


jkt abel  15:22:21 GMT - 03/31/2014  
JP, it has always been bad hair days for usd, i think this is going to continue for some time in the future. There is nothing Yellen can do about it, in fact she does not care about usd being a toilet paper as long as stocks keep floating.


london red  15:04:43 GMT - 03/31/2014  
yen support 10280, if below 10250 fatal.


Mtl JP  15:02:43 GMT - 03/31/2014  
it is a bad hairday for usd...
especially when down vs the chf


london red  14:49:16 GMT - 03/31/2014  
john, one could also argue that usdjpy is higher than last weeks levels vs current s&p which is unchanged.


GVI Forex john   14:44:09 GMT - 03/31/2014  
Big divergence now in S&P vs. USDJPY. USDJPY has fallen fairly sharply, but S&P is holding onto its earlier gains for now. Keep an eye on U.S. stox.


GVI Forex john   13:43:14 GMT - 03/31/2014  
Looks like thise trading for the new month are looking for a "rik-on" trade. that means they are buying stocks. Lets see how the day pans out.

Buying shares would be bullish USDJPY. Remember the ill-considered Japanese sales tax hike hits on Tuesday.


Nzy JM  09:11:12 GMT - 03/31/2014  
No change to this view which is so far working out to perfection

NY JM 11:01 GMT March 28, 2014
Your Best Trade Today : Reply
Sub-102 USDJPY buy looks pretty good as logic says upside is at risk after month/quarter/fiscal yearend passes and repatriation pressures ease. Focus then shifts to impact of April 1 hike in the consumption tax and speculation of further BoJ ease depending on how much the economy is impacted by it. On the upside, would need to get through and hold 102.50 to encourage a move higher.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  14:47:47 GMT - 03/28/2014  
EURUSD may also be benefiting from a relief rally after there was no smoking gun in the German inflation data but it is JPY flows that are driving price action. High was 1.3772 (close enough to 1.3770 res and first fib level).

1.38+ would be needed to negate the downside risk, which is neutralized while it trades above 1.3750.


NY JM  14:32:35 GMT - 03/28/2014  
Early birds trying to catch the worm in USDJPY and JPY crosses (eurjpy is what lifted eurusd). See my earlier post on this and trade call in this thread.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  13:57:55 GMT - 03/28/2014  
As posted on GVI Forex and working out so far

Friday's Trading Outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:35 GMT 03/28/2014 - My Profile
1.3770 = 38.2% of 1.3875-1.3705
1.3790 = 50%
1.3810 - 61.8%

So far 1,3770 capping. Was also a res yesterday.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  13:10:10 GMT - 03/28/2014  
My earlier video update, shows why EURUSD bounced



Video Market Update


EURUSD performing like a technical charm, tests key support target


Paris ib  12:30:00 GMT - 03/28/2014  
Risk on would imply a certain amount of trust. When it's clear that the criminals are in charge everywhere (industry, politics, banks) there really isn't a lot of room for trust. Right now the most honest people seem to be the declared criminals. At least you know who and what they are.


GVI Forex john   12:20:24 GMT - 03/28/2014  
S&P futures diverging (lower) vs. USDJPY since 12:00 GMT and was drooping lower earlier today. Risk-on session??


NY JM  11:01:23 GMT - 03/28/2014  
Sub-102 USDJPY buy looks pretty good as logic says upside is at risk after month/quarter/fiscal yearend passes and repatriation pressures ease. Focus then shifts to impact of April 1 hike in the consumption tax and speculation of further BoJ ease depending on how much the economy is impacted by it. On the upside, would need to get through and hold 102.50 to encourage a move higher.


Mtl JP  16:43:20 GMT - 03/27/2014  

Buy USDJPY
Entry: market Target: open Stop: sub 101.80
despite technical bias down looks like there is invisible hand support


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  16:16:53 GMT - 03/27/2014  
EURUSD just broke its low - 1.3705 at risk if it stays below 1.3740-50 (1.3712 = 50 day mva)


GVI Forex john   16:10:03 GMT - 03/27/2014  
Ive Been watching the S&P vs. USDJPY chart closely all day. I was expecting a tug-o-war but The S&P traded higher vs. the USDJPY at about 14:00 GMT and the two diverged in the other direction (very unusual). Now the S&P finally has fallen (about 15:30GMT) and the two have finally come back into line. I give the times for these movements just to point out that the two can often diverge for hours at a time.

One problem some may have is that you can trade the S&P minis in the futures and USDJPY with an internet broker, or futures if so desired. The issue is if you can only trade USDJPY with a retail broker, you could get the "convergence" correct, but that might only be reflected in an adjustment to the S&P.


Mtl JP  15:33:29 GMT - 03/27/2014  
usdyen at 102.02
priceaction under 50dma under 100dma = down bias
for bias to change Kuroda probably needs to come out and add more Abearrows to stimulate a giddy UP



Mtl JP  13:59:54 GMT - 03/27/2014  
u could try a long usdcad here against 1.1050 holding
low rr


Mtl JP  13:57:53 GMT - 03/27/2014  
it is a mover ain't it


GVI Forex JM  13:55:43 GMT - 03/27/2014  
JP, so much for 1.1080...


Mtl JP  13:43:47 GMT - 03/27/2014  
Pending House Sales on deck
- need to deviate from estimate by more than +/- 500,000 to elicit 50 pip reaction
-
usdcad sitting jsut about at 50dma = trade opportunity


NY JM  13:40:19 GMT - 03/27/2014  
Stocks turning softer, fx correlates (e.g. JPY)


dc CB  12:48:01 GMT - 03/27/2014  
Putin's Trade of the Month.

Gazprom must really be demanding payment on overdue Ukraine invoices which is the only way we can explain the unprecedented speed with which the IMF has managed to cobble together a makeshift bailout package of up to $27 billion - the bulk of which will naturally go to Russia - which has just made Ukraine its latest vassal state.

As Bloomberg reports, Kiev reached a staff-level agreement with the Washington-based lender for a two-year loan of $14 billion to $18 billion.

earlier today, acting PM announced that the country is on the verge of bankruptcy

Flashback to Hank Paulson waving a blank 3 page term sheet before Congress demanding ulimited power or else the global economy gets it.

And Now The Real Economic Pain Begins As IMF Unleashes $27BN Bailout In "Near Bankrupt" Ukraine



dc CB  12:17:54 GMT - 03/27/2014  
 
one last auction...so far so good; this week there were many takers.

$3.75-$4.5bln POMO...EOM and EOQ just 3 trading days away.

Oil higher. Is this because the O is going to visit the Saudis, as he completes his Euro-Touro. Another day of speachifying about "democracy"?

and then there's Eurasia:

"It is really too bad that certain companies have decided on ... restrictions," Putin told senior Russian lawmakers. "I think this will simply cause them to lose certain segments of the market - a very profitable market."

Putin Warns West Against Curbing Use of Payment Systems in Russia



Mtl JP  12:10:23 GMT - 03/27/2014  
john on the other hand the jobless claims is forward-looking as business folks (do/not) hire based on their incoming orders optics


GVI Forex john   11:56:04 GMT - 03/27/2014  
After a question...
Yes GDP data are due at 12:30 GMT. It is expected to be revised higher, but keep in mind this is the third run at this specific data. Also 4Q13 is getting to be a long time ago with little relevance to what is going on now.


GVI Forex john   11:42:28 GMT - 03/27/2014  
It doesn't surprise me that S&P futures and USDJPY are diverging at this hour. It looks like the S&P tried to rally from 8:30 to 10:00 GMT (1849 peak) but it has subsequently broken lower to 1846 last. The USDJPY has not followed.

This sets up a tog-o-war between the two into the cash market opening of stocks. so risk-on or risk-off?

Also don't forget the new focus is on whether the ECB will ease next week. This would be EUR negative mainly because of the signal it sends. I would not be surprised if this is just another case of the ECB sending false messages to the markets.

Lots of questions and not a lot of answers. Thoughts?
I don't see U.S. data today as being market moving, but I will be watching Pending Homes Sales later.


Mtl JP  11:42:08 GMT - 03/27/2014  
just targeting +/- 50 pips
no guarantee from random market movement
risk is to mistake myself for genius if it pans out


NY JM  11:29:39 GMT - 03/27/2014  
JP, have you flipped you view on the EURUSD?


GV Forex Jay Meisler  10:37:52 GMT - 03/27/2014  
As posted on GVI Forex

Thursday's Trading Outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:15 GMT 03/27/2014 - My Profile
Now 1.3750 sets the tone after stops were run.

Reply


Thursday's Trading Outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:05 GMT 03/27/2014 - My Profile
GBP taking center stage, EURGBP offsets weighing on EURUSD, GBP crosses also supporting USDJPY. EUR weaker on most other cross as well.

EURUSD setup to downside but so far the invisible hand keeping it above 1.3750

Bearish: Monday Effect (week's high set on Monday) and 5 day pattern around 1.38 so far broken

Should 1.3748-50 get firmly broken then 1.3705 comes on radar. Needs 1.3780+ to put 1.3800 back in play.



Reply


Mtl JP  10:22:11 GMT - 03/27/2014  

Buy EURUSD
Entry: current Target: 1.3790 Stop: few pips under 1.3740


JM JM  09:26:27 GMT - 03/27/2014  
By taking partial profit at 102.10 you can bring entry to 101.50 and a no lose trade.

End of fiscal year end should see easing of repatriation pressure.


london red  09:16:53 GMT - 03/27/2014  
NY, some really severe res at 102.50, pair just cant make hay above 102.55. we did this level earlier in the week, so suggests we shouldnt see much downside if pair to challenge 102.80/103.10. however, yesterdays fall is not totally catostrophic, but i do not like the 4-hourly candle reversal just now, similar to the bounce from low overnight. so its delicately poised. i have 102.05 and 101.86 as last lines for this rally. not sure we can go much lower a second time without bringing 101.20 into range.


NY JM  08:47:36 GMT - 03/27/2014  
Just in case trade working out.. Red if you are around would like your thoughts as you had the same idea yesterday.

NY JM 17:09:59 GMT - 03/26/2014
Buy USDJPY
Entry: 101.80 Target: 101.40 Stop: 102.80
Just in case trade.


dc CB  21:44:19 GMT - 03/26/2014  
BRUSSELS — President Obama offered a sustained and forceful rejoinder against Russia on Wednesday, denouncing the “brute force” he said it has used to intimidate neighbors like Ukraine and vowing that the United States “will never waver” in standing up for its NATO allies against aggression by Moscow.

In a speech meant as a capstone to his trip to Europe in the midst of an East-West confrontation with Russia, Mr. Obama addressed Moscow’s justifications for its intervention in Ukraine point by point, dismissing them as “absurd” or unmerited. He even defended the Iraq war, which he had opposed as a senator, as a stark contrast to the way Russia has seized the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine.

Obama Deplores Russia’s ‘Brute Force’ in Ukraine



Mtl JP  21:18:29 GMT - 03/26/2014  
nh 20:23 Nuland's boy Yatsenyuk claims he’s ready to be “the most unpopular prime minister” in history.

1) there is nothing "bail-out" about a 15-20billion loan
(Carney: debt endures)
2) I do not know who whispered the asking number into Arseniy's ear, but my gut says Ukraine probably needs 10-15x that number.
3) Yats may want to reconsider his fascination with western bankers and their view that "Ukrainians would argue that this is a price to pay for freedom” from dependence on Russia" according to Tim Ash, emerging markets strategist at Standard Bank and genuflecting to the IMF: “If ever we were to reach a situation in which we had to stabilize Ukraine, we would have many experiences from Greece” to draw on, Schaeuble said.

some nations have statesmen. some little donkey-lickers
time will tell which is Yats




dc CB  20:46:54 GMT - 03/26/2014  
 
I'm shocked, shocked that stox Fell!!!

The O makes the rounds in Europe...speachifying about Freedom, democracy, and rights. And how the US will export NatGas to save Europe from the Ruskies....at the expense of the US consumer(not mentioned). The O is currently repping for the Energy Conglomerates as he pastes Brand Obama on the New New New Cold War.

Back at home, the O rewrites Obamacare deadlines and rules yet again, as if it's his personnal "law" to define at will.

Meanwhile Mrs. O vacations with children in China, vendors hide Obama as Mao T-Shirts a the Secret Service security patrol passes by.



Mtl JP  20:42:57 GMT - 03/26/2014  
nh who is advising 0 ?
Obama, in dig at Putin, calls Russia "regional power"
-
Nuclear warheads: Russia: 8500 - USA 7700
Surface-wise the United States is the world's third largest country, after Russia and China
--
aren't 0's generals w/him in Amsterdam to give advice
or do these characters not know about dangers of Aquavit ?


Livingston nh  20:23:29 GMT - 03/26/2014  
STOX weak into close - still a gap below at 1840 - good 5 yr auction and yields are falling so still some serious concerns about something // IMF ready to break its rules again for Ukraine - so maybe tomorrow we find out more about UKR debt


Mtl JP  20:08:52 GMT - 03/26/2014  
I would amiss not to point out yet another favorable that might have helped - at least today - correlation with usdyen dumping along with US stox, particularly with S&P down 0.7%


Mtl JP  19:54:23 GMT - 03/26/2014  
Jay for once basic tech signal worked
I hope u r kitching


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  19:42:24 GMT - 03/26/2014  
JP, good call on 102.50 earlier.


Mtl JP  19:04:39 GMT - 03/26/2014  
usdyen priceaction is like trying to pull teeth out of a cobra


london red  17:17:46 GMT - 03/26/2014  
NY, with you on the yen at 86 if seen. been waiting a while. would be nice friday afternoon.

JP, you are bang on. if you ex out anything that is increasing in price, of course you are left with soft inflation. its no different in uk/europe.


NY JM  17:09:59 GMT - 03/26/2014  

Buy USDJPY
Entry: 101.80 Target: 101.40 Stop: 102.80
Just in case trade.


NY JM  16:44:02 GMT - 03/26/2014  
The daily squeeze in EURUSD is running into resistance at lower levels (this time at 1.3808). it may just be part of a compressing range but worth noting.


Mtl JP  16:14:58 GMT - 03/26/2014  
dc CB 15:39 - any idea why
EU to press Obama at summit for aid in cutting Russian gas imports
- rtrs

when all it would take is just simply ask nicely Vlad to tighten the valve, something that can be done on +/- 5 minute notice ?


Mtl JP  15:44:07 GMT - 03/26/2014  
purrfect timing for Vlad ...
to cut his gas price


nw kw  15:42:58 GMT - 03/26/2014  
2 years us ship yards building ngas ships


dc CB  15:39:41 GMT - 03/26/2014  
""Once we have a trade agreement in place, export licences for projects for liquefied natural gas destined to Europe would be much easier, something that is obviously relevant in today's geopolitical environment," Obama told a news conference after meeting EU leaders, adding that it could not happen overnight."

That's because all the LNG facilities were built to IMPORT LNG. ie: re-gasify the liquid. They were built before the "fracking phenom" when US NG was nearer to $10. They all are being reverse engineered so to liquify natgas for shipment. The first are expected to be ready sometime in 2016.

At present "exporting NG" is several years away. but you wouldn't know that listening to the O.


Mtl JP  15:25:49 GMT - 03/26/2014  
the mover .... eurgbp
-
0 on wires giving a hint to Vladimir:
Trade deal would ease U.S. gas exports to Europe: Obama - rtrs
adding that "won't happen overnight"

so maybe Vladimir will cut his gas price by half. or more


JP JM  15:16:05 GMT - 03/26/2014  
And about 16 pips in EURUSD


nw kw  15:11:38 GMT - 03/26/2014  
xjpy hit hard not xeur


Mtl JP  15:10:22 GMT - 03/26/2014  
usdyen... 5 pip move in US morning session...


nw kw  14:36:49 GMT - 03/26/2014  
tks red attest you no what your doing


nw kw  14:29:40 GMT - 03/26/2014  
gbp see blood ?


london red  14:27:42 GMT - 03/26/2014  
Looking to sell cable 16590-16605 with stop over 20 day ma which is 6620 today.
Eurgbp interests me from 8315 to figure.


nw kw  14:25:54 GMT - 03/26/2014  
gbp/usa


nw kw  14:25:25 GMT - 03/26/2014  
long u/gbp


nw kw  14:24:15 GMT - 03/26/2014  
it was lagging for 3 weeks


nw kw  14:23:14 GMT - 03/26/2014  
xgbp bit stronger might be strong for all numbers out in time


nw kw  14:14:49 GMT - 03/26/2014  
nw kw 19:18 GMT March 24, 2014 Reply
China equities bounced higher. Investors' focus appears to be on the accompanying commentary from HSBC chief economist stating he expects "Beijing to launch a series of policy measures to stabilize growth.

aud strong now poss can short gbp/aud


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  13:33:22 GMT - 03/26/2014  
JP, as I posted earlier on GVIForex

Wednesday's Trading Outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:24 GMT 03/26/2014 - My Profile
EURUSD 1.3875 is significant but only becomes a LH (confirming a downtrend) if 1.3748 is taken out. 1.3823 (20 day mva) capped the upside today so an indicator to watch to see if it can stay below it.


Mtl JP  13:24:17 GMT - 03/26/2014  
john superimposed his COT chart with the 20dma
20 day 1.3823
current price: 1.3791
Bias: down with decent sl


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  13:19:07 GMT - 03/26/2014  
For massive, it would take a signal/policy move from the ECB.

As I have said many times, you need to be careful in tight ranges as small moves can exaggerate a swing in your sentiment. Note how you feel when nit trades above or below 1.38. Currently it is a whopping +20 pips this year.


Mtl JP  13:07:32 GMT - 03/26/2014  
GBPUSD
I show a downsloping t-line resistance at 1.6571ish today
fwiw


GV Forex Jay Meisler  13:06:27 GMT - 03/26/2014  
JP, or setup for a leg up if 102.50 flips to support?


Mtl JP  13:01:17 GMT - 03/26/2014  
usdyen
100 day 102.59
50 day 102.49
price: 102.42
Bias: risk for south bias


GVI Forex john   12:19:55 GMT - 03/26/2014  
Just looking at my overlay charts at the moment. S&P futures vs. USDJPY perfectly correlated and DAX vs. S&P as well. That means DAX is perfectly correlated with USDJPY?? Go figure! At some point these correlation trades will break down when SOMETHING finally happens. This is shaping up to be a "risk-on" session. You never know if this is going to last.

Durable Goods orders are important for economists, but are rarely a big influence on forex trading.






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