thanks red and ib, i agree usdjpy looks like looking for support for another upleg at the moment, what's interesting now for me is euro and cousins, euro holds the key IMO
Paris ib 09:21:45 GMT - 12/08/2014
wtr - AUD weakness on back of the Murray report. Australian banks under capitalised. In addition unfriendly tax and legislation reform is likely to curb foreign buyers of Australian properties. Add to that the likely ousting of Tony Abbott (political uncertainty) who is likely to be replaced by the talking tombstone and ex Goldman Sachs executive, Malcolm Turnbull... and then you have the economic downturn, the likelihood of rate cuts in the new year and commodity price weakness.
How come you don't know this? You live in Perth !!
in addition, euro 200 month at 12236, monthly channel off 2010/12 lows at 12234. both 10 and 12 tests led to substantial rallies in euro, while a break almost certainly sees 12042 the prev low, before the month is out.
the funadmentals are certainly for further falls in euro, but it will need to fill out part of this years range next year. extrapolating how candles react from one frame to another, if we are going to 105/parity then next years high might be only 12250 before we see parity. but if parity/105 will not get traded next year, the back fill will be great and could be 125-129. i will be using monthly close abv/below 200 month as a key indicator for the long term trade for nxt yr.
london red 08:41:22 GMT - 12/08/2014
perth, euro and cable both broke support after strong nfp on friday, while yen is just retracement theory. pull up a weekly chart and look at the average pullback. its about a point to point and a half. youve got support at 12098/12106. it should bounce there to 12130, 70 at best. from there it goes on to a new high (think unlikely) or retest of that support and in that case probably break lower to fill out previous weeks range to 120 max.
perth wtr 08:19:00 GMT - 12/08/2014
why is usdjpy weak but euro,cable and aud also weak?
jkt abel 04:16:39 GMT - 12/08/2014
will post here if i have time, good luck
jkt abel 04:15:49 GMT - 12/08/2014
hi sja, nope i am out already for position play for nice gain, will enter position trade again next year
maybe reload later depending on the action but more like short term only, intraday play scalping here and there
bali sja 04:14:00 GMT - 12/08/2014
abel, are you still in usdjpy trade? thinking of reloading?
jkt abel 04:05:22 GMT - 12/08/2014
very quiet today, xmas holiday already? or is it a nervous week ;)
kl shawn 02:13:49 GMT - 12/08/2014
JP, so chitt has not hit the fan yet? when it does, 0.65-0.70 within a week?
Mtl JP 23:41:54 GMT - 12/07/2014
gc sf the speed of the aftermath of chitt hitting the fan is always quicker than the speed of approaching it
gc sf 23:29:02 GMT - 12/07/2014
I'm sure if this were another country there would be more concern
but right now here - the Housing Market is still fairly strong - in some areas it is underperforming and others overperforming
... we aren't seeing 50% falls in prices like what happened in the US -- so they have time to adjust.
Probably also to note that - lately the forecast have gone from tightening to easing .. so if that is the way it goes down - housing can't just collapse... causing the banks any massive short term issues.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia and its three main competitors may need as much as A$30 billion ($25 billion) after a government-commissioned inquiry called for “unquestionably strong” capital levels, analysts said.
The shortfall is based on lenders needing to boost levels to within the top quartile of their global peers and set aside additional funds against potential losses on home mortgages. .../..
Mtl JP 15:29:12 GMT - 07/14/2014
I have not seen a reference to this on the forum and albeit a few days old, like tectonic plates slowly but surely working deep under the surface , potentially worthy note to some:
..."Up until now European politicians were reluctant to apply bail-in to their banks because it would be deemed a specific national problem," said Simon McGeary, head of the new products group at Citigroup.
"But they now have the pan-European cover of the Recovery and Resolution Directive."
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