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perth wtr  10:04:17 GMT - 12/08/2014  
thanks red and ib, i agree usdjpy looks like looking for support for another upleg at the moment, what's interesting now for me is euro and cousins, euro holds the key IMO

Paris ib  09:21:45 GMT - 12/08/2014  
wtr - AUD weakness on back of the Murray report. Australian banks under capitalised. In addition unfriendly tax and legislation reform is likely to curb foreign buyers of Australian properties. Add to that the likely ousting of Tony Abbott (political uncertainty) who is likely to be replaced by the talking tombstone and ex Goldman Sachs executive, Malcolm Turnbull... and then you have the economic downturn, the likelihood of rate cuts in the new year and commodity price weakness.

How come you don't know this? You live in Perth !!

Murray Enquiry

london red  08:56:41 GMT - 12/08/2014  
in addition, euro 200 month at 12236, monthly channel off 2010/12 lows at 12234. both 10 and 12 tests led to substantial rallies in euro, while a break almost certainly sees 12042 the prev low, before the month is out.
the funadmentals are certainly for further falls in euro, but it will need to fill out part of this years range next year. extrapolating how candles react from one frame to another, if we are going to 105/parity then next years high might be only 12250 before we see parity. but if parity/105 will not get traded next year, the back fill will be great and could be 125-129. i will be using monthly close abv/below 200 month as a key indicator for the long term trade for nxt yr.

london red  08:41:22 GMT - 12/08/2014  
perth, euro and cable both broke support after strong nfp on friday, while yen is just retracement theory. pull up a weekly chart and look at the average pullback. its about a point to point and a half. youve got support at 12098/12106. it should bounce there to 12130, 70 at best. from there it goes on to a new high (think unlikely) or retest of that support and in that case probably break lower to fill out previous weeks range to 120 max.

perth wtr  08:19:00 GMT - 12/08/2014  
why is usdjpy weak but euro,cable and aud also weak?

jkt abel  04:16:39 GMT - 12/08/2014  
will post here if i have time, good luck

jkt abel  04:15:49 GMT - 12/08/2014  
hi sja, nope i am out already for position play for nice gain, will enter position trade again next year

maybe reload later depending on the action but more like short term only, intraday play scalping here and there

bali sja  04:14:00 GMT - 12/08/2014  
abel, are you still in usdjpy trade? thinking of reloading?

jkt abel  04:05:22 GMT - 12/08/2014  
very quiet today, xmas holiday already? or is it a nervous week ;)

kl shawn  02:13:49 GMT - 12/08/2014  
JP, so chitt has not hit the fan yet? when it does, 0.65-0.70 within a week?

Mtl JP  23:41:54 GMT - 12/07/2014  
gc sf the speed of the aftermath of chitt hitting the fan is always quicker than the speed of approaching it

gc sf  23:29:02 GMT - 12/07/2014  
I'm sure if this were another country there would be more concern

but right now here - the Housing Market is still fairly strong - in some areas it is underperforming and others overperforming

... we aren't seeing 50% falls in prices like what happened in the US -- so they have time to adjust.

Probably also to note that - lately the forecast have gone from tightening to easing .. so if that is the way it goes down - housing can't just collapse... causing the banks any massive short term issues.

prague  mark   17:03:07 GMT - 12/07/2014  
yes and big

kl fs  16:46:21 GMT - 12/07/2014  
mark, you gonna sell audusd at open?

prague  mark   15:40:12 GMT - 12/07/2014  
aud/usd gap down ~ 45-65pips

Mtl JP  13:17:49 GMT - 12/07/2014  
Australian Banks Seen Needing $25 Billion in Capital - bbrg

Commonwealth Bank of Australia and its three main competitors may need as much as A$30 billion ($25 billion) after a government-commissioned inquiry called for “unquestionably strong” capital levels, analysts said.

The shortfall is based on lenders needing to boost levels to within the top quartile of their global peers and set aside additional funds against potential losses on home mortgages. .../..

Mtl JP  15:29:12 GMT - 07/14/2014  
I have not seen a reference to this on the forum and albeit a few days old, like tectonic plates slowly but surely working deep under the surface , potentially worthy note to some:

Moody's revises outlook on Canadian bank system downward - Jul 8, 2014 Reuters

Mtl JP  17:59:47 GMT - 03/30/2014  
Bondholders ignore bank bail-in risk - RTRS

..."Up until now European politicians were reluctant to apply bail-in to their banks because it would be deemed a specific national problem," said Simon McGeary, head of the new products group at Citigroup.

"But they now have the pan-European cover of the Recovery and Resolution Directive."


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