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tokyo ginko  02:51:37 GMT - 09/02/2014  
close 40% nk @ 15715

balance 60% to ride! GT ALL!

tokyo ginko  06:01:46 GMT - 08/05/2014  
add nk 15320!

tokyo ginko  15:03:44 GMT - 07/29/2014  
sold 50% nikkei @ 15690...let the other half run till 16250

bali sja  05:06:37 GMT - 04/16/2014  
as I said before there is no stopping them buy stocks, it is all they care about
Dow 17k is a done deal soon and usd will go to toilet with it perhaps...

dc CB  02:48:45 GMT - 04/16/2014  
you can see where they want to take the SnP. If it weren't for the Ukraine mess this would have been straight up all day.

Cambridge Joe  21:17:03 GMT - 04/15/2014  
SnP HOD in place IMO. 19.3 ?

Cambridge Joe  21:16:58 GMT - 04/15/2014  
SnP HOD in place IMO. 19.3 ?

Cambridge Joe  21:03:39 GMT - 04/15/2014  
USDX softer thru Asia into London. IMO. GL

nw kw  20:55:29 GMT - 04/15/2014  
NZD Consumer Prices Index long n/jpy

Mtl JP  20:41:34 GMT - 04/15/2014  
- A 5.2% unemployment rate would be near full employment
- Recent data consistent with a slowly improving economy, but concerns that scars from the recession that have changed consumer and business spending habits
- Fed's Forward Guidance Should Be Linked to Employment, Inflation Data -- WSJ Blog
- Urges Data-Linked Policy Guidance

Paris ib  19:19:42 GMT - 04/15/2014  
nh - nice summary. You would think that the chinless deviants in Europe might know that. They act as if they don't. Hard to trade this one as there are so many weirdos involved and so many hidden agendas. Not least of which is Soros's mega put on the U.S. stock market. Not everyone wants this to quietly die as an issue.

Livingston nh  18:56:38 GMT - 04/15/2014  
fwiw -
"The takeaway is this: the Ukraine bloc owes the EU banks anywhere from $540 to $760 billion, depending on how you measure it. And the EU banks and large parts of its economy as a whole financed this loan by essentially borrowing all of it from Russia. If the West tried to clamp down on or seize Russian official assets or private flight capital, or if it otherwise took actions that destabilized the ability of these countries to service their debts, the losers would be in Kiev, Vienna, Milan, and Frankfurt—and not in Moscow."

Mtl JP  18:44:31 GMT - 04/15/2014  
john J Lew is got to be smiling: 30-year bond yields 3.46%
This puppy is going to cause some pain to holders in not too distant future. Certainly massive pain over the next 29 years.

Mtl JP  17:45:23 GMT - 04/15/2014  
actually sofar it is the other way around:
usdyen bouncing off 101.50 => S&P follows

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  17:34:42 GMT - 04/15/2014  
So mark down 101.50 and 2.60% (10-year) as one correlation point. Stocks bouncing off lows => USDJPY follows

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  17:28:52 GMT - 04/15/2014  
JP, I know how to get you worked up.

Suffice it to say that 101.50 is a sloppy zone but one where there will be BOD in the lower portion unless 101.50 cracks. Content with hit and run trading this week.

Correlation algos driving USDJPY

Mtl JP  17:24:34 GMT - 04/15/2014  
there is very little more annoying that answering a Q with a Q
c Mtl JP 15:36

eu pat  17:24:24 GMT - 04/15/2014  
mess))... controled...holding short...tight sl 101,82.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  17:20:34 GMT - 04/15/2014  
Did you?

Mtl JP  17:20:11 GMT - 04/15/2014  
d'u buy 101.50 ?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  17:18:48 GMT - 04/15/2014  

Entry: Target: Stop:
Held 101.50

Paris ib  16:52:27 GMT - 04/15/2014  
Obama is a serious concern. Mental competency of some kind appears missing. And Kerry is downright creepy.

eu pat  16:47:41 GMT - 04/15/2014  
sell...before was setup up...but Ukraine change it.Now U.S guys only control it to not fall ...It will hapend...

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  16:46:45 GMT - 04/15/2014  
Or ask the question whether it is Ukraine or some other factor weighing on stocks and boosting bonds. Wind has been coming out of high flying stocks (Nasdaq is getting close to a 10% correction). .

GVI Forex john   16:41:24 GMT - 04/15/2014  
As for what you buy or sell? Anyone have any suggestions? My strategy would be to hunker down until the dust starts to clear.

Honestly, I think the largest unknown in this situation is President Obama. Its hard to know how he will respond to increased tensions. I don't think he is predictable, because he has no clear policy.

GVI Forex john   16:36:26 GMT - 04/15/2014  
10-yr tests below 2.60% last 2.603%. I never thought we would see these levels again after the "tapering" started.

Livingston nh  16:26:57 GMT - 04/15/2014  
JM - I have kids like that

John - Putin poses unknowable risk but seems to me Draghi did more damage to EUR -- Eastern European currencies have taken the brunt so far // of course, if this turns into a shooting war .... but Ukraine doesn't seem interested

Mtl JP  16:23:43 GMT - 04/15/2014  
so IF you are in for a Civil War, what do we sell and what do we buy ?

dc CB  16:21:32 GMT - 04/15/2014  
There will be an attempt to neutralize the sell of in Stox going into the Easter weekend.

The talk around the dinner table should NOT be about "should we sell out this week?".

imho. it remains to be seen if the Bots can pull it off.

NY JM  16:17:20 GMT - 04/15/2014  
It would be like the guest who comes to dinner and moves into your house.

Mtl JP  16:15:15 GMT - 04/15/2014  
would "restore order" be not be preferable to a civil war ?
who is against "restore order" ?

GVI Forex john   16:11:01 GMT - 04/15/2014  
To give credit where credit is due, HK RF alerted us all to the deteriorating political situation in Ukraine over the weekend. Its looking like an al out civil war is developing and that could provide Russia with a pretext for stepping in to "restore order" and no one would be able to do anything about it.

So clearly now we are in a "risk-off" posture heading into the long holiday week-end. NO rational trader will be willing to run a "risk" position when trading conditions will be thin.

Any ideas??

Livingston nh  16:07:40 GMT - 04/15/2014  
JP - the Ndx and Rut (the focus of the correction) have already taken out the Friday and Monday lows // you're right about SPX but it may get dragged down further if the other two keep falling

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  16:07:06 GMT - 04/15/2014  
USDJPY key support is 101.30-40 with 101.50+ needed to keep a bid and away from key levels. 101/18 and 100.73 are key/major levels

Mtl JP  16:05:04 GMT - 04/15/2014  
usdyen resisting S&P's swan call atm
see who ll win the tug-of-war

Mtl JP  15:59:47 GMT - 04/15/2014  
usdyen 101.50 matches up with S&P's 1814.50-ish which currently is a 2x bottom (and support so-far) on the hourly

Mtl JP  15:36:29 GMT - 04/15/2014  

Entry: market Target: open Stop: sub 101.50
I am NOT calling this Best Trade Today, just one of few

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  15:06:07 GMT - 04/15/2014  

Entry: Target: Stop:
EURUSD 1.3835 remains res.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  14:36:37 GMT - 04/15/2014  
Now have to watch usdjpy 101.50 as that is what needs to hold to keep the focus on 102.

EURUSD, typical price action but so far only able to move into the 1.3820-35 neutral zone.

US stocks gave back early gains - not clear if it was the NAHB or Ukraine

Central Kwun  14:08:57 GMT - 04/15/2014  
RF, agree with you this time, US is the real terrorists

HK [email protected]  14:06:26 GMT - 04/15/2014  

Usually the FED is behind those Wall St. criminals, probably to attract silly investor into USD instruments safe haven LOL

tokyo ginko  14:04:51 GMT - 04/15/2014  
join the fun! sold gold 1297.5!

Central Kwun  13:51:59 GMT - 04/15/2014  
manipulated by US people again

dc CB  13:45:49 GMT - 04/15/2014  
This morning, shortly before 8:27am ET, someone decide that it was the perfect time to dump thousands of Gold futures contracts worth over half a billion dollars notional. This smashed Gold futures down over $12 instantaneously, breaking below the 200DMA and triggered the futures exchange to halt trading in the precious metal for 10-seconds.

As Nanex exposes in great detail...

1. June 2014 Gold (GC) Futures on April 15, 2014
Note the 10 second halt.

Gold Futures Halted Again On Latest Furious Slamdown

Mtl JP  13:16:57 GMT - 04/15/2014  
re I'm never sure if gold is a risk-on or risk off trade.
A: only way to find out is to trade it

London Chris  13:15:58 GMT - 04/15/2014  
Is anybody playing the market today?

GVI Forex john   13:00:01 GMT - 04/15/2014  
As usual we will be keeping an eye on equities to see if this will be a risk-on or risk-off session. As often true, the USDJPY to S&P correlation is working well. S&P futures are trying to rally but are struggling at their current HOD.

I'm not sure why, but gold and copper have been struggling. I'm never sure if gold is a risk-on or risk off trade.


GVIForex Jay Meisler  12:41:45 GMT - 04/15/2014  
I believe that choosing the strong side of the market to trade is more than half the battle and this is a good thread to express your bias. So don't be shy. There is more than one way to present and discuss a trade idea.

GVIForex Jay Meisler  11:05:17 GMT - 04/15/2014  

Entry: Negative bias while below 1.3820ish Target: Stop:
I call this the battle for 1.38

EURUSD trades with a negative bias today while below 1.3820-21 but would need to establish 1.38 as resistance for a stronger bias. 1.3820-35 is a neutral zone but only above upper end would put 1.3850 in play again.

On downside, 1.3790 (day low) and 1.3779 are nearby supports, latter needs to hold to keep the focus on 1.38.

Only a 31 pip range so far today so easy to see your emotions swing with a small move.

More details in my Forex Outlook video for today.

Feel free to comment, agree or disagree. Open for discussion.

GVIForex Jay Meisler  18:18:14 GMT - 04/14/2014  

Entry: Market bias is down as long as it stays below 1.3835 Target: Stop:

This worked today although range has been small.

Above 1.3835 would see 1.3850 reassert as a magnet

GVIForex Jay Meisler  13:38:43 GMT - 04/14/2014  
On the other side, upside is limited as long as below 1.3835 (as per my video update)

USA ZEUS  13:21:32 GMT - 04/14/2014  
HK Kevin 13:16 GMT 04/14/2014

Thanks friend. Best trades to you!

HK Kevin  13:16:54 GMT - 04/14/2014  
USA ZEUS 01:28 GMT, good trades. Like one of the very few senior members said before , it's called money in the pocket trades.

USA ZEUS  13:12:33 GMT - 04/14/2014  
USA ZEUS 01:28 GMT April 10, 2014
GBP/USD All-in More than triple short at 1.6817
Same for EUR/USD at 1.3864

Massive gains.

USA ZEUS  01:29:01 GMT - 04/10/2014  
Will comeback later to tell you about the massive gains.


USA ZEUS  01:28:21 GMT - 04/10/2014  
GBP/USD All-in More than triple short at 1.6817
Same for EUR/USD at 1.3864

Miami JN  23:58:39 GMT - 04/09/2014  
buy on dips that is

Miami JN  23:57:40 GMT - 04/09/2014  
Master Zeus

Are you still bearish?

At what levels would you say your trade is not working?

Would your butane square on dips?

london red  19:03:12 GMT - 04/09/2014  
yen seems to be supported for now at 73 a previous low. eurjpy is doing better which is helping. trendline has already been rejected once so if below this low could be signal for run at 47/50 before 20.

USA ZEUS  18:05:45 GMT - 04/09/2014  
Added Short EUR/USD 1.3843
Added Short GBP/USD 1.6773

PAR 17:58:59 GMT - 04/09/2014  
Yellen is a superdove convinced that the US economy is rather bad and that most americans are either unemployed or top earning investment bankers needing low interest rates . Anything Hawkish will never come out of these minutes

london red  17:35:19 GMT - 04/09/2014  
thks JM. minutes up soon. trend for all three (eurusd gbpusd and usdjpy) seems higher but last fomc was a hawkish shock so really minutes should be expected in a similar vein hence usd firmer unless there is something between the lines. possibly why usdjpy making most distinct move pre minutes.

PAR 16:56:31 GMT - 04/09/2014  
De facto Greek , Spanish , Italian Irish bonds are backed by the ECB and ultimately by the German taxpayer ( who doesnt know that ) .

A kind of Fannie May , Freddy Mac story bad bonds being backed by the Us taxpayer .

NY JM  15:19:42 GMT - 04/09/2014  
Red. CNBC is talking about the demand for EUR assets, which is not a new story, but highlighted by the strong expected demand for the Greek bond issue.

I show 1.3845 and 1.3875 key levels, with 1.3850 most important if focus is to shift from 1.38.

1.3820 was the breakout level so why it is now pivotal.

london red  15:10:15 GMT - 04/09/2014  
JM for me its 31 51 and 63 for euro as markers. On downside 13800 and 3780 then 60 which is judt above 200 hour

USA ZEUS  15:09:16 GMT - 04/09/2014  
Short EUR/USD 1.3823
Short GBP/USD 1.6753

NY JM  14:58:36 GMT - 04/09/2014  
I warned about being complacent. Bonnici's comments is what was needed to flush weak longs and setup a run through 1.3820 stops. This now becomes the pivotal level.

GVIForex Jay Meisler  14:25:53 GMT - 04/09/2014  
This is what sent EURUSD back to 1.38. Typical ECB speak but news algos like the keywords.

4/9/2014 10:16:18 AM
(EU) ECB's Bonnici (Malta): There is no risk of deflation in the EMU, reiterates ECB takes the appreciating Euro into account in policy
- ECB can use non standard measures if necessary, ECB needs the ability to conduct sovereign or private asset purchases as part of the QE program
- Source

dc CB  13:14:35 GMT - 04/09/2014  
the 10Y auction is the focus of the NYFed's trade desk today. even and steady with maybe a tab of fear.

When that's done, after 1PM, the market will trade a Re-Reading of what the FOMC said in the middle of March, at 2PM or sooner because we all know that the Minutes from LAST MONTH are under lock and key until exactly 2PM.

NY JM  13:04:59 GMT - 04/09/2014  
Quiet markets are times to be alert as they are often followed by volatility. not saying it will happen today but it is still a time not to be complacent. With that said, as long as EURUSD and USDJOY hand around 1.38 and 102, market is trapped. Next key event is the FOMC minutes. So far 20 day mva has capped the EURUSD upside 2 days in a row but range has been very tight.

ottawa ottawa  12:24:16 GMT - 04/09/2014  
I believe that you have to be a scalper working with 1-min charts to trade 6-9 pips in the euro and GBP...

not my style..taking the rest of day off, sunshine outside.

good luck all

Syd sf  12:06:05 GMT - 04/09/2014  
Gold dropped $10 - the obvious trade is eur vs aud/cad imo

$yen targets 101.37 101.21 and 101.12

question is whether we see that or we push up to 102.58 and just chop our way up.

no idea myself - I just let the Bot do it's job .. see what it looks like in Asia tomorrow .. good hunting.

GVI Forex john   12:03:57 GMT - 04/09/2014  
fwiw DAX and S&P correlation is amazingly tight today. S&P vs. USDJPY is diverging at this hour, but it almost always comes back into line by later in the day. S&P is ABOVE USDJPy.

GVIForex Jay Meisler  12:00:32 GMT - 04/09/2014  
From a bank report (feel free to join the discussion)

I honestly don’t know what drives markets any more...

GVIForex Jay Meisler  11:40:32 GMT - 04/09/2014  
Ottawa, EURUSD is +22 pips (last 1.3795) for the year-to-date in a market that was looking for 1.25 this year (year is still young but would probably take a signal from the ECB or a shift in US rate expectations for a green light trend). On the upside, above 1.40 is seen as problematic for policy makers so you can make the case that the high for the year is in at 1.3967 but would have to establish below 1.38 for that to be confirmed.

By the way, USDJPY is down over 3% so far this year in a market looking for 110 or higher.

Sums it up.

ottawa ottawa  11:17:00 GMT - 04/09/2014  
market is unreadable...I can not figure out whether long or short...

GVIForex Jay Meisler  11:16:06 GMT - 04/09/2014  
One of my favorite trading tips is to beware of tight ranges.

Notice how your emotional sentiment shifts (feels offered when below, bid when above) when EURUSD is trading above or below 1.38.

London Chart  11:09:29 GMT - 04/09/2014  
The chart is very clear but hard bet is for a breakout


Long time lurker

UAE AM  11:00:56 GMT - 04/09/2014  
Is anybody betting on higher eur$ from here or are we all sitting on our hands?

GVI Forex john   10:30:29 GMT - 04/09/2014  
Something I heard yesterday on CNBC is that statistically stocks tend not to close down for some reason on Tuesdays.

NY JM  10:28:59 GMT - 04/09/2014  
Red, agree with your USDJPY levels. Yesterday I showed 102.25-30 as resistance as well although charts only show this as a minor level. There is also a former (minor) uptrendline broken yesterday that comes in around 102.22.

This is life in a low volatility market where we get the occasional day but for the most part it has been relatively tight ranges and false starts.

In any case, look for EURUSD 1,38 and USDJPY to set respective trading tones.

Key EURUSD resistance remais at 1.38290, 20 day mva capped the upside yesterday at 1.3812. This mva is at 1.3809 today

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  10:14:14 GMT - 04/09/2014  
As I posted last night on GVIForex

Wednesday's Trading Outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 23:40 GMT 04/08/2014 - My Profile
As I said earlier, Wednesday is often a correction day so would not be surprised to see an up day for stocks.

GVI Forex john   10:11:03 GMT - 04/09/2014  
Looks like they are trying to drive equities higher heading into the U.S. I pointed out yesterday that I have noticed over the decades that equities in the U.S. for some reason not like to follow the direction for overseas. So watch how U.S. trade after the open.

Equities are the tip off as to whether this will be a "risk-on" on or "risk-off" session.

nw kw  19:02:13 GMT - 04/08/2014  
JP so down if chf/jpy brakes big support pivot 115.00, 30.pips down might trigger a fire ball

Mtl JP  18:50:01 GMT - 04/08/2014  
according to g-v chartpoint
usdyen Pivot = 103.17 today

GVIForex Jay Meisler  18:45:32 GMT - 04/08/2014  
101.50 has replaced 102.50 as the pivotal level that needs to hold to keep it away from key supports. 101.18 and 100.73 (key low and around the4 200 day mva) is the major level.

london red  18:40:00 GMT - 04/08/2014  
yen just slightly hesitating to follow stocks lower here. change in momentum maybe. i need to see rebound to 86 then 102.05 then hold 86 ideal on first fail.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  18:29:10 GMT - 04/08/2014  
This time stocks (giving back gains) adjusted to the JPY. No one ever said this business was easy.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  18:25:11 GMT - 04/08/2014  
I posted this on GVI Forex this morning and cited key levels in my outlook video:. 101.18 is next key support.

Tuesday's Trading Outlook
GVIForex Jay Meisler 12:07 GMT 04/08/2014 - My Profile
Fading JPY corrections has ended more than one fx career (Google LTCM carry trade meltdown). Times are different now and the current correction has been orderly although price action suggests buyers on dips keep getting stopped so let's look at fib levels:

Using 101.18-104.12, 102.30 61.8% and this has been completed with a brief blip below 102.30

Using 76.4% = 101.87, which is also key support.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  18:24:21 GMT - 04/08/2014  
I posted this n GVI Forex this morning and cited key levels in my outlook video:

Tuesday's Trading Outlook
GVIForex Jay Meisler 12:07 GMT 04/08/2014 - My Profile
Fading JPY corrections has ended more than one fx career (Google LTCM carry trade meltdown). Times are different now and the current correction has been orderly although price action suggests buyers on dips keep getting stopped so let's look at fib levels:

Using 101.18-104.12, 102.30 61.*% and this has been completed with a

Using 76.4% = 101.87, which is also key support.


GVI Forex john   16:04:50 GMT - 04/08/2014  
Major divergence between S&P and USDJPY with S&P rebounding and USDJPY still languishing. We mentioned earlier that the U.S almost never follows the lead of Europe in equities. I have never understood how that happens?

Equities in the U.S. are only barely higher at this hour. I am wondering if they can hold,

NY JM  13:51:15 GMT - 04/08/2014  
USDJPY would need to get back above 102.25-35 to put 102.50 in play again.

london red  13:42:44 GMT - 04/08/2014  
Possible hourly rev on yen here building. Will then act as line in sand ahead of 102.05

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  13:42:40 GMT - 04/08/2014  
EURUSD running into resistance in the 1.3805-20 zone (high 1.3807)

USDJPY finding support just above 102

Note prior post

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  13:27:52 GMT - 04/08/2014  
Key levels:

EURUSD 1.3805, 1.3820
USDJPY 101.87, 101.18
GBPUSD 1.6786, 1.6822

Watch EURUSD 1.38 and USDJPY 102 as respective bias setters.

GVIForex Jay Meisler  12:13:32 GMT - 04/08/2014  

Video Market Update

Rare day when dollar moves in the same direction vs. all currencies. Note USDJPY just completed a 61.8% retracement of 101.18-104.12 at 102.30 and 76.4% = 101.87 = key support as per the video

Please view to the end of the video for a special message

Also, this was posted earlier on GVIForex and I have asked before if you want to see the videos on a regular basis, simply send me an EMAIL

london red  11:32:53 GMT - 04/08/2014  
Long second yen at 35 stop on lot under 25.
If fails buy last time ahead of last fib buy zone 102.05/10 stop a dozen pips. If fails again will look to sell a rebound as new low on cards.

GVI Forex john   11:11:30 GMT - 04/08/2014  
Equities are turning weaker as the session wars on heading into the NY market. The U.S. 10-yr is back below 2.70% and is now at 2.697%, 0bp from 2.71% a short while ago. Political tensions over Ukraine are another influence driving funds out of equities and into sovereign bonds.

As S&P futures have fallen, the USDJPY has followed, but it seems to be trying to stabilize. Keep an eye on U.S equities to see if they follow through on the overseas weakness. More often than not they do not.


tokyo ginko  03:38:30 GMT - 04/08/2014  
free ride to jump on the wagon

tokyo ginko  00:28:00 GMT - 04/08/2014  
final add nk 14680

tokyo ginko  00:24:22 GMT - 04/08/2014  
culdn;t resist, add long usd/[email protected] 102.88

Syd sf  00:23:30 GMT - 04/08/2014  
the one thing we have learned ... before big data announcements that are/could be positive

---> markets move lower

such as BOJ Meeting today.... $yen/Nikkei Profit Taking/Position Squaring whatever you want to call it.

when numbers are expected to be bad -- then the market tends to build a buffer zone into the price so it's not a complete bloodbath after.

my robot is still waiting for 75 to be touched and I expect 65 to be a good buy -- but more price action needed obviously.

tokyo ginko  00:10:15 GMT - 04/08/2014  
yes, wobbling..part of trading..add long nk 14710

not a momentum trader here...GT

Mtl JP  00:07:03 GMT - 04/08/2014  
Nikkei wobbling, usdyen wobbling in sympathy

nw kw  21:44:37 GMT - 04/07/2014  
aud/usa trap 60m chart

NZD NZIER Business Opinion Survey

Cambridge Joe  20:53:00 GMT - 04/07/2014  
To me it looks like sell in May and go away.... while you've still got something that someone else wants to buy.... !

That's the SnP weekly supported by the monthly.

BTW if you haven't already, take a look at the monthly... 7 year cycles crisp as you like !

Recently the head man of the local Gypsy site won the lottery... he wanted paying in traveller's cheques. :-)

NY JM  20:42:02 GMT - 04/07/2014  
I belief several high fliers are over 20% off the highs

Mtl JP  20:35:34 GMT - 04/07/2014  
nh investopedia says that "a downturn of 20% or more in multiple broad market indexes, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500), over at least a two-month period" is an entry into a bear market.

But some media types will qualify a 20% drop off the high regardless over what time period as bear market; always some ahead of their time.

Livingston nh  18:34:27 GMT - 04/07/2014  
JM - spx 1840 is a target because of the St. Paddy's day gap - we are at about the level that the window dressers showed up so there may be some BUYER's Remorse and with the margin levels 1840 may seem position puking - DJIA has about 100 point cushion

Just a continuation of the Jan correction but we should start to hear BEAR MARKET pretty soon from media types

NY JM  17:49:18 GMT - 04/07/2014  
It feels like a day where the best trade may be no trade.

Forex market is calm (and quiet here as well) compared to stocks, which continue to fall.

Gold is not benefiting.

Bonds firmer but cautious.

Even USDJPY seems cautious with a correlation more in direction than magnitude as it is only down modestly in a tight range and seems to have some support around 103.

It is hard to draw conclusions other than stocks, led by the NDX, getting an overdue correction.

Re S&P, I have seen 1840 mentioned several times (not just today) as a pivotal level.

GVIForex Jay Meisler  16:44:15 GMT - 04/07/2014  
EURUSD capped below the "50" level (1.3750), which will set the tone while it trades within 1.37-1.38. High 1.3747.

london red  16:29:33 GMT - 04/07/2014  
cable being capped by 200 hour ma on a closing basis thus far. although while above 16605 you cant rule out a further gain. above flash high then 16650 probably on cards. fib at 16688 you feel a bridge too far today but worth looking at cable into tomorrows ind and man data. never one to underestimate strength of uk economy, but weather related effects may just dampen the 0.3/0.4% expectations for both numbers.

london red  16:19:30 GMT - 04/07/2014  
last notable fib before 50 day ma biggie (1840) at 1846. nasty angled triple top of sorts built up. could go a fair bit down if 50 day taken out.

GVI Forex john   16:09:14 GMT - 04/07/2014  
Jay. Yes the S&P to USDJPY correlation has finally kicked in very nicely.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler  16:00:36 GMT - 04/07/2014  
Stocks still under pressure so watch for JPY correlations. Note USDJPY mvas posted below.

GVI Forex john   15:57:15 GMT - 04/07/2014  
Note U.S. 10-yr last 2.69%, -4bp. Reflects a flight to safety out of stocks and a lack of confidence in the strength of the U.S. economic recovery?

GVIForex Jay Meisler  14:59:02 GMT - 04/07/2014  
From a GVIForex member:

A bit of a headscratcher the €/Y is at the high of the day...

London Chris  14:21:16 GMT - 04/07/2014  
Is anyone trading today? Vely quiet. Nice calls on gbp and eur buys today.

GVIForex Jay Meisler  13:58:26 GMT - 04/07/2014  
And this as well

1.3746 = current 100 hour mva
1.3756 = current 200 hour mva

USDJPY daily mvas

102.88 = 100
102.56 = 20
102.36 = 50

GVIForex Jay Meisler  13:57:30 GMT - 04/07/2014  
As posted earlier on GVIForex

Monday's Trading Outllook
GVIForex Jay Meisler 10:24 GMT 04/07/2014 - My Profile

1.3727 = 38.2% of 1.3820-1.3670
1.3731 = Friday's post-FOMC high
1.3745 = 50%
1.3767 = 61.8%

And of course 1.3750 is pivotal while within 1.37-1.38, only above it would shift focus from 1.37, which has traded 3 days in a row.

GVI Forex john   13:14:17 GMT - 04/07/2014  
Complete reversal in S&P futures vs USDJPY. S&P now above USDJPY mainly due to USDJPY decline. Unclear where S&P is headed today...

Brisbane Flip  11:30:29 GMT - 04/07/2014  
If you are buying something on the back of ECB's Luxembourg Yves Mersch is saying you must be smoking crack. These morons have been consistently stubbornly wrong yet still expect to see Europe rebounding with now even more debt, smaller economies, higher taxes and less competitive exporters into a weakening Asia.

Unfortunately Algos and HFT's are driven by mathematics and group think "key phrases" not actual economics...

GVI Forex john   11:06:07 GMT - 04/07/2014  
Its looking to me as though the forex market is lacking inspiration at this hour, so we should revert to the equity correlation trades until a new theme emerges.

At the moment the S&P futures is diverging from USDJPY (S&P weaker). It could be difficult for the markets (algos?) to work out what to do with a period of equity weakness when the JPY is still vulnerable. This is the problem with the correlation trade when it does not make a lot of sense fundamentally. There is no logical reason for USDJPY to rise when U.S. stocks are higher, but that correlation is one of the strongest we've ever seen.

There is no point in overthinking this. The markets like a simple "risk on" or "risk off" decision. That does not require a lot of deep thinking. Keep an eye on the U.S. NASDAQ as the lead relationship where a mini "Tech Bubble" is being deflated.


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