' Putin lurks but until the IMF says no to Ukraine'..........
You may have put your finger on it there nh !
If / when Ukraine fails to pay Russia for gas said to have been received, Putin may decide that this is sufficient justification for rolling the tanks.
It's kind of damned if you do and damned if you don't.
Livingston nh 21:29:47 GMT - 04/11/2014
Well, when folks start to look for market witches everybody gets a ride on the ducking stool -- so far currencies have been relatively calm and commodities are still not in recession panic -- US interest rates are still low (some folks see weaker economy looming) and Fed says no tightening (except, of course, "it's only a trillion dollars" taper) -- so stox are leading this one - currencies are probably next (EM first - Turkey downgrade today but social unrest, Venezuela, Brazil and Argentina) Putin lurks but until the IMF says no to Ukraine or vice versa the EUR is probably safe, then commodities and finally Fixed Income blows up (PPI today might have been a first shot in the idiotic War on Deflation) see Greece bond auction, French, Italian yields // meanwhile by June the Taper will have reached critical mass
so next week a double bottom at SPX 1710 (buy) or a fake out low 1760 with a failed rally into one of the above Ducking Stool incidents // don't buy until Google search turns up more reference to Bears than Corrections
Cambridge Joe 20:30:58 GMT - 04/11/2014
JP IMO it is 'a'. A quick look at the weekly and monthly suggests sell in May (very early May) and stay that way (core) for about two years. IMO of course !
Mtl JP 20:21:58 GMT - 04/11/2014
in other words: is the stox puke out
a) just the beginning or is it
b) a buying opp ?
Mtl JP 20:14:58 GMT - 04/11/2014
Jay 11:49 re How equities end the day will be more important than how they start as it could set the tone going into next week.
What is The Tone ?
dc CB 19:50:10 GMT - 04/11/2014
Speaking of "under the bus"
Maybe GM is the next Big Short...most widely held HedgeFund stock.
GM CEO Mary Barra told of steering problem in 2011, according to documents released by cmte
GM engineer Ray DeGiorgio said it was “impossible” to modify switch
red one has to be one heck of a patriotic posi-thinking american to be adding to puking stocks that are already on margin
london red 19:02:26 GMT - 04/11/2014
nailed on JP. over here those that cant get the loan often in most need. we've had plenty of sales fall through due to lack of credit worthiness. most often the bank has tightened up lending requirements so much so that only those who dont need will qualify. very slowly its moving in the right direction tho. but v slowly. more cash sales than credit tells you something
Mtl JP 18:46:06 GMT - 04/11/2014
john normally stocks like cheaper cost of money.
maybe it is cheaper but not accessible ?
GVI Forex john 18:30:50 GMT - 04/11/2014
Yes it follows that S&P and USDJPY are diverging.
GVI Forex john 18:22:09 GMT - 04/11/2014
USDJPY Thursday held a low of 101.30 even as bond prices rose. They are higher again today. So far 101.30 was tested and held today. Currently it is higher at 101.50.
Is this telling us something?
london red 13:57:03 GMT - 04/11/2014
s&p 1830 done. thats line in sand for upside while 24 on downside. range
GVIForex Jay Meisler 13:41:23 GMT - 04/11/2014
EURUSD bounced off the one hour trendline (1.3864) - as per my Daily Forex Outlook video update.
I will ask again, if you want to see a copy of today's video and get access on an ongoing basis, send me an EMAIL
Livingston nh 13:33:06 GMT - 04/11/2014
WSJ (w/ interesting chart) on BoJ and excess reserves - maybe Yellen should look at the chart LINK
Money (like water) has to move to be effective -- too low interest rates makes hoarding more attractive
london red 13:25:42 GMT - 04/11/2014
cable fib 18. if gives then 167 said to support but think 84/88 and 200 hour/60 more imp. below there quickly 16605/10
london red 13:02:44 GMT - 04/11/2014
euro making lower hourly lows but couple of fib/support at 50/55. below there quickly 20/30. above 80 probably eases downside pressure
Brisbane Flip 13:00:04 GMT - 04/11/2014
I am sure Abe-san is aware that Nikkei has been imploding towards six month lows while elsewhere they are on multi-year or all time highs recently.
Maybe there is a communication problem?
london red 12:57:21 GMT - 04/11/2014
yen risk to 73 if s&p holds up rebounds to 1829/30. if above 86 should be plenty of buying. if not and there is a sharp reversal, we almost certainly go to low for day.
Syd sf 12:54:47 GMT - 04/11/2014
it's actually really bad .. because if they meet and he doesn't drive $yen to 108/110 - then its going to crash through 100 faster than you can click your mouse.
Mtl JP 12:48:01 GMT - 04/11/2014
Kuroda is probably feeling like some stupid poodle being thusly publicly paraded by numbnuts Abe. Doesn't the 70-yr old Kuroda have any honor left ?
nw kw 12:45:54 GMT - 04/11/2014
swiss market down big can lead
GVI Forex john 12:43:36 GMT - 04/11/2014
S&P emini now -9 @1818
GVI Forex john 12:39:33 GMT - 04/11/2014
In what appears to be a public rebuke of the BOJ, PM Abe will be meeting with the BOJ's Kuroda face to face this month for the first time since December.
The BOJ is independent of the government. There was disappointment Monday of this week when the BOJ took no actions to offset the impact of the sales tax increase that went to effect on April 1.
london red 12:34:50 GMT - 04/11/2014
ifs its to be risk off fwiw aussie must trade down to 10 day ma c. 9310? think thats the risk if below 9400. all subject to equities of course
london red 12:33:32 GMT - 04/11/2014
s&p ok lets rally back to 1830 and see what happens from there.
ppi stronger but as said earlier was to be expected a higher print after import prices release.
GVIForex Jay Meisler 11:49:18 GMT - 04/11/2014
How equities end the day will be more important than how they start as it could set the tone going into next week.
The word most heard for the momentum stocks weakness is overvaluation and revolving into 'safer" stocks.
GVI Forex john 11:37:47 GMT - 04/11/2014
S&P futures currently are down another 6 pts heading into N.Y. trade. Traders will be looking to follow equities into the weekend and the upcoming holiday-shortened week. I don't see the PPI data on the open as a likely market-moving release. Furthermore, although I watch the University of Michigan Survey closely, it is usually not a major market-moving release either.
JPM 1Q14 earnings this morning were apparently a big miss and another weight on stocks.
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