Follow up to my weekend video. Hangover Monday, EURUSD 1.38xx closing range to be watched.
Livingston nh 13:34:19 GMT - 05/05/2014
For a few years treasury did not issue 30yr - Fed has been tightening these past few years as it was scooping up treasuries (aka "buying money") // now we have a shortage of 30 yr supply LINK so some folks are going to be buying at the top
Some folks have been disparaging the employment report but look at the not seasonally adjusted - 20 yr & over (real workforce)unemployment rate is under 6% - 25 and over is pushing under 5%
Services ISM inflation has been very hot see if it stays that way - Fed may have a preference rate but the real world will likely intrude on their ivory tower before long
Mtl JP 13:24:30 GMT - 05/05/2014
SellEURUSD Entry: appraoch to 1.39 Target: 50dma Stop: around 1.3922
g/l 2 me
Mtl JP 13:14:54 GMT - 05/05/2014
ok... I ll answer my Q about "market logic"
IF YOU read the 10-yr yield drop as bond players betting AGAINST Janet it might qualify as "market logic"
GVI Forex john 13:07:04 GMT - 05/05/2014
S&P Futures at their LOD 10-yr 2.577%. Markert still unable to react positively to NFP.
Mtl JP 12:49:26 GMT - 05/05/2014
specifically what "market logic" is that pray tell ?
NY JM 12:44:40 GMT - 05/05/2014
Red, that would be a logical scenario but one hard to bet on while in the FX (and global market) Twilight Zone.
Most glaring are US bond yields (10-year currently 2.58%) in a market where logic says it should be closer to 3.00% than 2.50%.
Reaction to news is what matters in this market more than the news itself.
london red 11:59:30 GMT - 05/05/2014
after a good nfp the market will be looking for a second strong month before talk begins of rate rises. however, until then, all data will be scrutinised for signals on employment and todays will be the first look at april from the services perspective. despite being a bank holiday in the uk, i would fully expect the dollar to show some strength if employment components put in a good show. the dollar hasnt really reacted to good news as often its been foloowed by indifferent or poor data, but after the strong nfp, the dollar has the chance to rebound if data follows through. yen and then pound possibly to show most movement with euro volatility subdued ahead of ecb.
GVI Forex john 11:52:53 GMT - 05/05/2014
Today sees a couple of Service PMIs from the U.S. (Markit and ISM). After the fact, it will be interesting to see if the employment sub-component of the ISM Service PMI is strong. It is more tightly correlated with NFP payrolls than the MFG reading. The MFG sector of the U.S. economy is relatively small in terms of jobs. It is interesting because of its cyclicality.
GVI Forex john 13:27:06 GMT - 05/04/2014
So what are the highlights of the COT Reports this week
1) GBP longs recently had been building but very recently net longs have been declining.
2) AUD longs had been building but are tailing off as well.
My point is you want to buy or sell a currency when positions are being BUILT in your direction not when they are being liquidated. You want to trade WITH the flow not AGAINST it.
more to come...
PAR15:01:32 GMT - 05/02/2014
Goldman pushing some hedge fund which is short Us treasuries out of the market . Remember MF global .
GVI Forex john 14:53:20 GMT - 05/02/2014
GVI Forex john 14:51:44 GMT - 05/02/2014
Must be the Ukraine news ahead of the long weekend?
GVI Forex john 14:49:00 GMT - 05/02/2014
GVI Forex john 14:47:31 GMT - 05/02/2014
GVI Forex john 14:45:34 GMT - 05/02/2014
10-yr yield in a freefall? Below the lowest levels of the day now.
GVI Forex john 14:44:03 GMT - 05/02/2014
Hard to believe the 10-yr is now back at 2.617%
GVI Forex john 13:30:59 GMT - 05/02/2014
Remember the Yellen rate hike six month after tapering comment? She wishes we won't! Her biggest mistake was probably telling the truth.
July 2015 Fed Funds Futures
now implied 0.475%
when Yellen spoke 0.350%
What this means is that the markets are gradually moving forward the timing of the first rate hike. Over time this could be USD supportive if the tightening timing continues to shorten.
nw kw 13:21:45 GMT - 05/02/2014
headline is a big beat= faster interest rate can come on line and that will stall market// that fed
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:19:21 GMT - 05/02/2014
Red, and others. Suggest reading our May newsletter, C'mon ECB, Send Us a Signal
EURUSD may be a matter of trading bid in an offered market.
john, dollar should be firmer as headline is a big beat, tho participation and earnings are a drag and thats why it may be struggling for traction. while yen above 10270 then upside, if under i guess it will go much lower.
euro and particularly cable seem bid, the latter down to m&a interest, tho there comes a point of support when broken, flip market psyche other way. with cable i expect its 10 day/200 hour ma area.
GVI Forex john 13:10:11 GMT - 05/02/2014
Post data 2.68%
I'm curious about how it ends the day. Perhaps something else at work here?
Im also curious about how EURUSD and USDJPY wind up.
Livingston nh 12:59:49 GMT - 05/02/2014
stox may have a "sugar rush" reaction as celebration turns to "uh oh" - watching the 2 yr yield 0.45 (.52 last summer taper hi) and em currencies (SGD lead) as a combo of taper midpoint and fear of earlier rate hikes bite // ISM service next wk prices paid +++ // good thing got off the "forward guidance" employment target when it did
GVI Forex john 12:54:12 GMT - 05/02/2014
Nice correlation initially in S&P futures vs.USDJPY. At this point I am seeing divergence with USDJPY relatively higher post initial reaction to data release. This could be a scaling issue?
london red 12:25:53 GMT - 05/02/2014
well HFE have 186k, they say adp average miss is 36k so that gives us 175/240 range. however only last week city were looking for a consensus towards 300k.
fwiw rare for in increase in adp to be followed by a lower nfp but 193k is still higher.
GVI Forex john 12:11:29 GMT - 05/02/2014
IMHO a 10-yr at 2.62% heading into NFP would seem to be inconsistent with a strong report?
I'm starting my pre-data watch for unusual price moves now on the off chance that the data is leaked. But we know that never happens!!
GVI Forex john 11:42:22 GMT - 05/02/2014
REFRESH FORUM MANUALLY TO UPDATE 3MO AVG (GREN LINE)
GVI Forex john 11:36:06 GMT - 05/02/2014
This is why I feel a NFP in excess of +250K would have a profound impact on the markets. I don't care what some say the market expects. Its my observation over the time that traders tend towards the status quo. Markets react to new developments. Just my opinion. Blue line is the six-month moving average.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:21:32 GMT - 05/02/2014
EURUSD 100 and 200- hour mva lie just below, currently at
1.3851 (100 hour)
1.3837 (200 hour)
Same for GBPUSD
1.6850 (100 hour)
1.6825 (200 hour)
GVI Forex john 15:55:25 GMT - 05/01/2014
CNBC says their poll of forecasters now sees an average for the first revision of 1Q14 GDP to result in a level of -0.20%.
TIP: This is why we publish inventory and trade numbers. Higher inventories would be an addition to GDP while lower numbers reduce it. As for trade, A larger trade deficit is a negative while a trade surplus would be a positive. When the government prepares the first (advance) GDP estimate, it has to guess at a number of these statistics.
GVI Forex john 15:52:27 GMT - 05/01/2014
U.S. construction Spending data today is expected cause a downward revision to advance 1Q14 GDP when we get the "preliminary" report due next. One major bank is calling for a -0.1% reading , another sees -0.2% and a third sees -0.3%, after the advance reading of +0.1%.
This could be a contributor to the hard to figure slide in the 10-yr yield tp 2.62% least. Strangely, the EURUSD has been slipping.
Any explanations for the slide in 10-yr yields??
GVI Forex john 13:59:21 GMT - 05/01/2014
U.S. equities turning south early im NY.
GVI Forex john 12:19:53 GMT - 05/01/2014
nh- Thank you. I mentioned yesterday that I doubted it had anything to do with the tapering. That seems to be working well.
Livingston nh 12:16:50 GMT - 05/01/2014
John - the FRB meeting most likely had nothing to do with Taper - implementation of QE3 and the Taper decision have always been FOMC concerns // the other meetings with this topic were held in 2011 so this may be about distortions caused in bank holdings and Treasury issuances - auctions are getting modestly smaller (deficit projections down 114 bio) // when do they start buying bills again??
GVI Forex john 11:18:57 GMT - 05/01/2014
Otherwise we are in a mild risk-off session today. The FTSE has been leading us higher today and U.S. equity futures are up. Once again we are heading into a NFP report on Friday with dealers looking for a strong report. One of these times they will be right. A bucketful of money has been lost on this bet over the past five years, but this is the way that the markets are leaning for data tomorrow. There is no direct relationship between weekly jobless claims today and payrolls tomorrow. This is good because we are always looking for independent data to confirm each other.
GVI Forex john 11:10:32 GMT - 05/01/2014
Yellen's topic is Community Bank supervision so it could be a real yawner. On the other hand, she might take the opportunity to share something on the FOMC meeting that ended yesterday. Her predecessor (Bernanke) would usually stick to the stated topic, but Yellen is a major advocate of transparency. I doubt she will be providing any insights into the secret Fed meeting on Tuesday.
Mtl JP 10:51:31 GMT - 05/01/2014
Janet's yikyak might send the dollar up a bit (and therefor the euro lower some)
see what it will take to get the EURUSD lower. Pre-NFP outlook
Cambridge Joe 22:54:42 GMT - 04/30/2014
Then fingers crossed, good luck and good night from here !
Chennai AMI 22:53:40 GMT - 04/30/2014
Its a buy,
Cambridge Joe 22:43:16 GMT - 04/30/2014
AMI long or short ?
I have 1 pos long at the same.
Chennai AMI 22:40:21 GMT - 04/30/2014
Thanks for your views. I'm holding one position from 99.645
Cambridge Joe 22:37:00 GMT - 04/30/2014
I've had a couple of unfortunates with oil lately, but that said, to me it's not short. buys around 02:30 gmt. Looks into and thru Friday from here.
Just IMO of course.
syd sf 22:36:46 GMT - 04/30/2014
lol . I gotta watch out for ladders and black cats for 2 days.
Chennai AMI 22:31:58 GMT - 04/30/2014
Hey Guyz, your views on current oil move.
Cambridge Joe 22:25:43 GMT - 04/30/2014
sf two hopes..... Bob Hope and no hope !
ausnzd buys 00:00 gmt and gets the habit.
gbp aud.. not so clear, but I don't think sooo !
Yes, I say Ha ! :-)
syd sf 22:14:16 GMT - 04/30/2014
- aud/nzd = 10680
+ gbp/aud = 1.8330/50
by friday close.
GVI Forex john 21:51:39 GMT - 04/30/2014
I'm seeing reports that the markets were speculating that the closed door Fed meeting within a meeting was to discuss a pause in the Fed tapering. Perhaps the view is that if a pause were discussed in the "open" closed Fed meeting that it would have had to have been disclosed the regular Minutes. By having a special meting I assume they could have postponed releasing the details until much later.
With the 10-yr note currently below 2.70%, I don't see what a postponing of the taper would accomplish? If they are exiting the taper without the market blowing up, they should be thanking their lucky stars. I am stretching my brain to figure out another plausible reason for a secret meeting on "Medium-Term Monetary Policy".
Paris ib 19:35:22 GMT - 04/30/2014
Oh right, I thought it was the expedited procedures or the exclusion of the public or something.... I have no idea.
GVI Forex john 19:29:47 GMT - 04/30/2014
It doesn't bother me. Why do they have to have a meeting when they are already having one? It makes no sense unless it it because of some ridiculous law?
Paris ib 19:25:44 GMT - 04/30/2014
What bothers you about that John?
dc CB 19:25:30 GMT - 04/30/2014
of course another misleading of the Sheeple
Government in the Sunshine.
As the FED is not a government agency...it is a private Bank Owned organization
GVI Forex john 19:25:30 GMT - 04/30/2014
cb good catch. It doesn't look like it was an earthshaking topic?
GVI Forex john 19:23:32 GMT - 04/30/2014
On Tuesday, April 29, 2014 at 10:30 AM, a meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System was held under expedited procedures, as set forth in section 26lb.7 of the Board's Rules Regarding Public Observation of Meetings, at the Board's offices at 20th and C Streets, N.W., Washington, D.C., to consider the following matters of official Board business.
Meeting Date: Tuesday, April 29, 2014
1. Discussion of Medium-Term Monetary Policy Issues.
dc CB 19:19:43 GMT - 04/30/2014
think it might have something to do with the Emergency Meeting that the FED held yesterday...at the SAME time the FMOC was scheduled....but that nobody knows anything about?
10-yr yield falling late in the day. Last 2.65% -5bp. I'm having trouble grasping a coherent message.
GVI Forex john 19:05:22 GMT - 04/30/2014
Thursday- sees May Day holiday in many centers, but notably not in New York and London.
CHINA: PMI's are always closely followed and can impact the Aussie.
U.K.: Manufacturing PMI will be examined for further evidence that the economy is growing.
U.S.: Yellen is due to speak but not on policy. It appears to me that sometimes she feels the obligation to comment on policy. Remember her job under Bernanke was to work on Fed transparency. U.S. Weekly Jobless are always tracked for its basic trend. U.S. Mfg PMIs will be followed closely for indications of growth. Markets are looking for any confirmation (or not) that the economy is growing.
Our Risk Heat Map earlier was not sending a clear signal. The markets need a coherent signal on where investment flows are heading. On this score NFP on Friday could be decisive.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:03:21 GMT - 04/30/2014
It is old news but bond market still reacting.
Is it lower bond yields or end of month weighing on the USD?
GPBUSD extending its 4+ year highs, USDJPY slipping to new day low. EURUSD intra-day double top at 1.3869-70 blocks the key daily double top at 1.3879-80, which in turn blocks key 1.3905.
And we still have the FOMC.
GVI Forex john 14:28:44 GMT - 04/30/2014
Street estimates for NFP is for a gain of 210K to be announced on Friday. Data today suggest that street estimates will be increased once again going into Friday's data. That means that traders once again will be setting up for strong figure again. Sooner or later they will be right, but this has been a losing strategy for the past five years or so.
GVI Forex john 13:14:04 GMT - 04/30/2014
Summing it up so far...
Japan BOJ does nothing as expected. Mfg PMI data abysmal falling below 50 (49.8).
German data mixed- retail sales lousy, unemployment data improving.
EZ HICP- Mixed No compelling reason for ECB to ease.
U.S. data- mixed so far. ADP payrolls outperformed, but GDP was poor (As usual, I'm already reading reports saying GDP was not that bad. Typical analyst response to a shockingly poor headline number).
Chicago PMI see 56.5 vs. 55.9
FOMC expect no surprises
Mixed data/news not painting a compelling scenario either way. I think this sets up payrolls on Friday as decisive. U.S. NFP has the potential to improve strongly, but it consistently has underperformed.
London Chris 13:11:31 GMT - 04/30/2014
is anyone long gbpusd other than our always bullish forum friends in Indonesia?
Mtl JP 13:01:06 GMT - 04/30/2014
Monday's high: 1.38785 fwiw
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:04:08 GMT - 04/30/2014
1.3854 = 76.4% of 1.3880-1.3771
uk rg 11:45:39 GMT - 04/30/2014
EURUSD Entry: Target: Stop:
depending on next data GDP short at 1.3883/88 or long at 1.3800/3785
Now in noman's land
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:03:53 GMT - 04/30/2014
Market got stuffed long EUR yesterday and now got stuffed short but only 1.3850+ would suggest a more serious squeeze. Resistance from yesterday is at 1.3840-55. The overnight high was 1.3815 so initial support that would need to hold to keep the focus away from 1.38.
Plenty left on the calendar today so more than enough for some movement.
Anyone have any trade ideas or scenarios to share?
GVI Forex john 10:13:44 GMT - 04/30/2014
Lots of Key U.S. data today:
12:15 GMT- ADP see +206K
12:30 GMT- GDP see +1.10% pa
18:00 GMT- FOMC Decision see another $10bln taper
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 09:32:40 GMT - 04/30/2014
High so far has been 1.3833
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 09:24:19 GMT - 04/30/2014
As I posted on GVIForex (note, 1.3830 so far capping the upside)
Wednesday's Trading Outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 09:09 GMT 04/30/2014 - My Profile
200 hour mva (1.3823) although slope of the mva line is a near flat line. 100 hour mva currently 1.3833
Resistance at 1.3830 blocks upside and 1.3840-55.
Is this typical or what?
Month end, holidays tomorrow, thin trading.
GVI Forex john 19:57:55 GMT - 04/29/2014
JAPAN BOJ decision. we don't expect much and unlikely to be a major market-moving event.
GERMANY: Retail Sales and Unemployment. Both are potentially market moving releases. Germany is seen as the engine of EZ growth and the data will be judged it that light.
EUROZONE; flash April HICP (CPI) could be very influential on the ECB policy decision in just over a week's time. Key will be if low inflation persists. This would intensify the pressure on the ECB to ease monetary policy further.
UNITED STATES: ADP Private Payrolls are seen gaining 206K in April. Markets are hoping for a strong Spring U.S. bounce back in the economy. U.S. GDP and the Chicago PMI will be examined for positive economic signs.
We are not expecting much from the Fed policy decision. A $10 bln tapering to $45bn is baked into street expectations. Otherwise, look at the policy statement for other news. Interest rates are on hold for the rest of the year at a minimum.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:06:13 GMT - 04/29/2014
I posted this 2 1/2 hours ago on GVI Forex and you can see how little bounce EURUSD has had since its initial fall it is still within what is now the current 1.3780-1.3880 range.
This market must have gotten stuffed long EUR ahead of Wed's EZ HICP as it has it has shown little bounce since the post-data drop.
Now we roll the dice on EZ HICP, where market will be wary of a weaker inflation # so surprise would be if it comes in hotter. An as per consensus result might be more of a relief to those betting on ECB policy move on May 8.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:58:55 GMT - 04/29/2014
USD is not getting the flows. Main driver has been flows out of EUR but EURUSD remains above 1.38.
So it has been all about the cross offsets (e.g. GBP has been a beneficiary)
By the way I gave a heads up on the German HICP but like most, was not expecting a surprise. A bit disappointing as my plan was to sell into a pop on EZ HICP tomorrow.
GVI Forex john 21:44:08 GMT - 04/28/2014
Tuesday sees revisions to U.K. GDP. Usually the revisions are not major. UK data recently has been fairly consistently positive and supportive of the GDP.
U.S.: The Case Shiller house price index allegedly is more accurate than other indices, but the data are stale so who cares?
The Conference Board Consumer Sentiment Survey is a well-established survey that is closely followed by many economists. It has a clear shorter-tern time horizon than the University of Michigan Survey. It is seen coming in at 83.0 vs. 82.2 in March.
I have been having my doubts recently about the value of these various sentiment surveys as predictors of the economy. Nevertheless a stronger reading should be USD supportive while a weak reading could hurt.
Notice our chart runs the University of Michigan Survey against the CB Survey even though the questions have different time-frames. Personally, I think the survey participants are unable to differentiate their time frames, so the results are comparable.
API energy data often give us a signal on EIA data on Wednesday. That's all.
dc CB 21:10:56 GMT - 04/28/2014
Cambridge Joe 21:06:49 GMT - 04/28/2014
None. In fact there are three freely convertible currencies in the universe, but the Altarian Dollar has recently collapsed, the Flanian Pobble Bead is only exchangeable for other Flanian Pobble Beads, and the Triganic PU doesn't really count as money. Its exchange rate of six Ningies to one PU is simple, but since a Ningy is a triangular rubber coin 6800 miles long each side no one has ever collected enough to own one PU. Ningies are not negotiable currency because the galactic banks refuse to deal in piddling small change. From this basic premise it's very simple to prove that the galactic banks are also the product of a deranged imagination.
Good night !
dc CB 21:04:18 GMT - 04/28/2014
FMOC meetings start tom
Question? What get Wacked during FMOC meetings.
Love you Gammy.
GVI Forex17:26:59 GMT - 04/28/2014
Now the cup is half empty
Stocks in the red...............
NY JM 14:30:42 GMT - 04/28/2014
Cup half empty or half filled?
US equities (up) leading the way and everything else correlating (bonds, gold, JPY, etc).
GBPUSD failed to hold 1.6840+ but still 1.68+
USDJPY trading 102.50+ but needs to become support to argue higher
EURUSD 1.3850 remains the bias setter although upside did not get close to 1.3905 key res
GVI Forex13:58:05 GMT - 04/28/2014
Stocks firming now, NASDAQ in the green. FX market seems to be sitting on its hands after the overnight run through stops.
GVI Forex13:41:57 GMT - 04/28/2014
US stocks getting pulled down by NASDAQ slipping slightly into red
GVI Forex john 11:26:50 GMT - 04/28/2014
On this score, Eurozone "flash" HICP inflation figures for April will be released at 9:00 GMT on Wednesday. They will be a key factor in the ECB policy decision in a week's time.
GVI Forex john 11:21:27 GMT - 04/28/2014
Its looking like a mild "risk-on" session today as we illustrated in our "Risk-on/Risk-off" table below". As usual, I am keying off equity prices because these days they set the tone for fixed income (bond) markets. There was a time when it worked the other way around. The two then set the tone for forex trading. It looks like the S&P (e-mini) futures are trying to give USDJPY a lift at this hour.
EURUSD continues to display remarkable resilience. It continues to look like it wants to break through topside resistance. We continue to suspect that there is the "invisible hand" of covert intervention to cap the topside of EURUSD.
Mtl JP 01:23:57 GMT - 04/28/2014
the real fun will probably start when markets dislocate like they did with Lehman... but at a "higher level" level still such as that of foreigners stopping buying each others' paper, say like if they stop adding (let alone dump) Lew's paper. And maybe I ll see Gold at multi-thousands price point in my lifetime yet.
anyone w/next trade suggestion from the pic ?
Mtl JP 23:56:21 GMT - 04/27/2014
Nikkei is down some in early Asia ,
also reflected in usdyen
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 23:41:54 GMT - 04/27/2014
Either market would open with a gap on Ukraine or stay in a bunker and wait for data later on to trigger some movement. So far it has been a bunker mentality to start to the week but enough this week to suggest staying alert as there will be some movement..
Cambridge Joe 20:22:17 GMT - 04/27/2014
Very sorry for this.... computer problems causing concern over the estimations.... caution required.
Running charts from three different platforms and getting conflicting pictures.
Therefore.... DYOD... as per.
Cambridge Joe 19:48:25 GMT - 04/27/2014
Cambridge Joe 19:46:16 GMT - 04/27/2014
Just got the computer back up..... tech problems... doncha love 'em !
EURJPY buying about 15....30 mins in. IMO. GL
Still can't run most charts... so I'm blind. :-(
GVI Forex john 13:04:44 GMT - 04/27/2014
The Monday calendar is relatively light as usual
JAPAN: sees Retail Sales data consensus +10.90% y/y for April vs 3.60%. The gain is expected due to higher prices after the hike in the consumption tax on April 1. We will have to see the analysis afterwards to determine if the economy is improving.
Personally I have grave doubts about the wisdom of the Sales Tax hike, but a robust reading could give the JPY a boost.
United States: Pending Homes sales measure contracts signed to purchase existing homes. That is the first step in buying a home in the U.S. Afterwards a full contract has to be executed. Once the full contract is executed it becomes an "Existing Homes Sale". The sale can still fall through if all terms of the contact (inspections, mortgage approval, etc.) are not met. Traditionally, most sales that go to contract are completed, but we are not in normal times now.
Pending Homes sales is a reliable predictor of Existing Homes Sales in one to two months time. Existing Homes sales is the most closely followed U.S. housing statistic. U.S. housing data have been an ongoing disappointment and suggest the economy is in a sluggish recovery.
The USD could react positively to a better than expected Pending Homes sales release, but this report has been poor for the last six months.
(see below). The U.S. economy has to rebound for the long expected USD rally to develop.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:12:53 GMT - 04/25/2014
FX taking a back seat to stocks and bonds.
EURUSD has had a whopping 20 pip range today but feels like more given the chop.
No obvious place to hide in FX although JPY and CHF stand to benefit as this is where there are carry trade positions
This feels like a game of global chicken where neither side can step down or risk losing face.
Feels like most fx traders have given up on the day.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:29:39 GMT - 04/25/2014
EURUSD so far unable to get to 1.3850, which guards key levels at 1.3855 and 1.3864. Minor intra-day support at 1.3826/27-31
USDJPY 102.50 capped upside overnight but so far finding support below 102. As noted, 102 will set its tone going forwards. Currently below 20/50/100 day mvas. 100.93 = 200 day mva.
GBPUSD 1.68 has traded each day this week
Unlike other crises, FX is not leading but following.
Sums up a bunker day
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:39:01 GMT - 04/25/2014
Reminder, UofM sentiment comes out to subscribers before it hits the wires.
GVI Forex john 13:28:48 GMT - 04/25/2014
Whether they realize it or not, JPY bears (USDJPY bulls) have been betting on a higher Nikkei and S&P. Problem is I don't know how much upside the equity markets still have in them?
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:21:30 GMT - 04/25/2014
Markets need to be led and this is why JPY bears are frustrated by the BoJ not hinting of more QE and EUR bears hoping for a currency signal from the ECB in the form of a rate cut to negative or QE.
GVI Forex john 13:18:37 GMT - 04/25/2014
Flip- There are times when I agree with these observations, but somehow I feel that the markets only need a reason (pretext?) to break out of these chains. I don't feel the algos do any thinking, that is why the current state of affairs can't last.
I'm curious how they would deal with the volatility that some of us have seen in the not too distant past?
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:18:18 GMT - 04/25/2014
Flip, for intra-day trading, market seems only to move on news or anticipation of news events and then settles back into ranges after stops get run (or if stops aren't run).
Currently, EURUSD is just +70 pips y-t-d after nearly 4 months of trading while USD is down against most currencies except CAD and that is off its high.
This is in a year where forecasts were (and for the most part still are) calling for a higher USD based on the economy outperforming its peers.
Ukraine becomes an issue for Europe if Russia cuts off gas exports but that is something both sides want to avoid.
Brisbane Flip 13:10:03 GMT - 04/25/2014
John I don't think there are many actual people with opinions who move volume in the market these days. Between algos, HFT and ACBs "managing" squillions in their country's interests the news and fundamentals appear less important by the day.
E.g Europe has drifted into deflation with no growth and massive unemployment but I can't remember us actually trading off any of it on any reinforcing continually imploding data release.
GVI Forex john 13:01:24 GMT - 04/25/2014
If the markets felt there were a a serious risk of a major event in Ukraine over the weekend, they would be selling EURUSD. As of this hour, the EURUSD is up very modestly.
The moves in stocks and bonds look to me more like position squaring than pro-active trading into the new week. Does this position-squaring present a trading opportunity?
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:49:56 GMT - 04/25/2014
Market wants to ignore Ukraine but as tensions rise, Russian troops edge closer to the border, and US threatens more sanctions (question is how far will Europe go), market is forced into defense.
Given a market heading to the bunkers, my daily outlook video covers risk on a day like this. I also suggest clicking on the link in the video if you want some keen insights.
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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