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syd sf  23:09:34 GMT - 05/05/2014  
I'm just referring to Asia obviously .. London will have their own Ambush later hopefully . because its painfully slow.


syd sf  23:04:21 GMT - 05/05/2014  
$yen to 30-35 // Gold to 02/03

everything else dying a slow death except aud which may move after rba... not too sure with direction .. but audnzd lower still.


Cambridge Joe  19:55:58 GMT - 05/05/2014  
SnP now looks like 20:30. Sold it anyway @ 1884.4

Oil firming next few hours 99.45 entry.

Good night.


dc CB  19:46:19 GMT - 05/05/2014  
There are also Treas Auctions this week, 3, 10, 30.
The 10 and the 30 are new, not reopens, they go off Wed and Thurs.

That being said, Tuesday may be the best stox will have to give this week.


Cambridge Joe  18:51:17 GMT - 05/05/2014  
SnP softer from 22:00 GMT maybe from approx 1891...95 ?

To watch for IMO. GL


dc CB  18:48:18 GMT - 05/05/2014  
There is an extremely high probability that tomorrow will be Tuesday.


Mtl JP  15:38:55 GMT - 05/05/2014  
worrisome news
US Ambassador to Ukraine: No evidence of direct Russian involvement in violence in Odessa - washingtontimes

Good news:
Lockheed sees Ukraine crisis boosting missile system sales: paper

Qtn remains who will foot the bill for Lockheed's missiles.




Mtl JP  14:58:44 GMT - 05/05/2014  
john 14:23 //
Gold is off its earlier 1315
Crude - brent and wti - are down
SnP is up some
-
pray tell some of the "worrisome Ukraine news" that you are getting ?

and ... what do we buy / what do we sell ?


GVI Forex john   14:23:46 GMT - 05/05/2014  
Equities, 10-yr and USDJPY are up on better than expected Service PMI data (Markit and ISM).

"Risk on" or does this fade?

We continue to get worrisome Ukraine news in bits and pieces.


Mtl JP  13:49:53 GMT - 05/05/2014  
you think... in an inter-connecetd world ?


Livingston nh  13:49:04 GMT - 05/05/2014  
JP - money has to move - the three you have mentioned have bottled up money in different ways for different reasons


Mtl JP  13:45:03 GMT - 05/05/2014  
why are the printers - japan, US , ECB - having trouble reaching their "inflation" number ?


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  13:37:34 GMT - 05/05/2014  
As posted this earlier on GVIForex



Video Market Update

Follow up to my weekend video. Hangover Monday, EURUSD 1.38xx closing range to be watched.


Livingston nh  13:34:19 GMT - 05/05/2014  
For a few years treasury did not issue 30yr - Fed has been tightening these past few years as it was scooping up treasuries (aka "buying money") // now we have a shortage of 30 yr supply LINK so some folks are going to be buying at the top

Some folks have been disparaging the employment report but look at the not seasonally adjusted - 20 yr & over (real workforce)unemployment rate is under 6% - 25 and over is pushing under 5%

Services ISM inflation has been very hot see if it stays that way - Fed may have a preference rate but the real world will likely intrude on their ivory tower before long


Mtl JP  13:24:30 GMT - 05/05/2014  

Sell EURUSD
Entry: appraoch to 1.39 Target: 50dma Stop: around 1.3922
g/l 2 me


Mtl JP  13:14:54 GMT - 05/05/2014  
ok... I ll answer my Q about "market logic"
IF YOU read the 10-yr yield drop as bond players betting AGAINST Janet it might qualify as "market logic"


GVI Forex john   13:07:04 GMT - 05/05/2014  
S&P Futures at their LOD 10-yr 2.577%. Markert still unable to react positively to NFP.


Mtl JP  12:49:26 GMT - 05/05/2014  
specifically what "market logic" is that pray tell ?


NY JM  12:44:40 GMT - 05/05/2014  
Red, that would be a logical scenario but one hard to bet on while in the FX (and global market) Twilight Zone.

Most glaring are US bond yields (10-year currently 2.58%) in a market where logic says it should be closer to 3.00% than 2.50%.

Reaction to news is what matters in this market more than the news itself.


london red  11:59:30 GMT - 05/05/2014  
after a good nfp the market will be looking for a second strong month before talk begins of rate rises. however, until then, all data will be scrutinised for signals on employment and todays will be the first look at april from the services perspective. despite being a bank holiday in the uk, i would fully expect the dollar to show some strength if employment components put in a good show. the dollar hasnt really reacted to good news as often its been foloowed by indifferent or poor data, but after the strong nfp, the dollar has the chance to rebound if data follows through. yen and then pound possibly to show most movement with euro volatility subdued ahead of ecb.


GVI Forex john   11:52:53 GMT - 05/05/2014  
Today sees a couple of Service PMIs from the U.S. (Markit and ISM). After the fact, it will be interesting to see if the employment sub-component of the ISM Service PMI is strong. It is more tightly correlated with NFP payrolls than the MFG reading. The MFG sector of the U.S. economy is relatively small in terms of jobs. It is interesting because of its cyclicality.


GVI Forex john   13:27:06 GMT - 05/04/2014  
So what are the highlights of the COT Reports this week
1) GBP longs recently had been building but very recently net longs have been declining.
2) AUD longs had been building but are tailing off as well.

My point is you want to buy or sell a currency when positions are being BUILT in your direction not when they are being liquidated. You want to trade WITH the flow not AGAINST it.

more to come...


PAR 15:01:32 GMT - 05/02/2014  
Goldman pushing some hedge fund which is short Us treasuries out of the market . Remember MF global .


GVI Forex john   14:53:20 GMT - 05/02/2014  
2.584%


GVI Forex john   14:51:44 GMT - 05/02/2014  
Must be the Ukraine news ahead of the long weekend?


GVI Forex john   14:49:00 GMT - 05/02/2014  
2.593%


GVI Forex john   14:47:31 GMT - 05/02/2014  
2.604%


GVI Forex john   14:45:34 GMT - 05/02/2014  
10-yr yield in a freefall? Below the lowest levels of the day now.


GVI Forex john   14:44:03 GMT - 05/02/2014  
Hard to believe the 10-yr is now back at 2.617%


GVI Forex john   13:30:59 GMT - 05/02/2014  
Remember the Yellen rate hike six month after tapering comment? She wishes we won't! Her biggest mistake was probably telling the truth.

July 2015 Fed Funds Futures
now implied 0.475%
pre-data 0.440%
when Yellen spoke 0.350%

What this means is that the markets are gradually moving forward the timing of the first rate hike. Over time this could be USD supportive if the tightening timing continues to shorten.


nw kw  13:21:45 GMT - 05/02/2014  
headline is a big beat= faster interest rate can come on line and that will stall market// that fed


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  13:19:21 GMT - 05/02/2014  
Red, and others. Suggest reading our May newsletter, C'mon ECB, Send Us a Signal

EURUSD may be a matter of trading bid in an offered market.

C'mon ECB, Send Us a Signal



london red  13:16:36 GMT - 05/02/2014  
john, dollar should be firmer as headline is a big beat, tho participation and earnings are a drag and thats why it may be struggling for traction. while yen above 10270 then upside, if under i guess it will go much lower.
euro and particularly cable seem bid, the latter down to m&a interest, tho there comes a point of support when broken, flip market psyche other way. with cable i expect its 10 day/200 hour ma area.


GVI Forex john   13:10:11 GMT - 05/02/2014  
10-yr yield
pre-data 2.62%
Post data 2.68%
last 2.66%

I'm curious about how it ends the day. Perhaps something else at work here?

Im also curious about how EURUSD and USDJPY wind up.


Livingston nh  12:59:49 GMT - 05/02/2014  
stox may have a "sugar rush" reaction as celebration turns to "uh oh" - watching the 2 yr yield 0.45 (.52 last summer taper hi) and em currencies (SGD lead) as a combo of taper midpoint and fear of earlier rate hikes bite // ISM service next wk prices paid +++ // good thing got off the "forward guidance" employment target when it did


GVI Forex john   12:54:12 GMT - 05/02/2014  
Nice correlation initially in S&P futures vs.USDJPY. At this point I am seeing divergence with USDJPY relatively higher post initial reaction to data release. This could be a scaling issue?


london red  12:25:53 GMT - 05/02/2014  
well HFE have 186k, they say adp average miss is 36k so that gives us 175/240 range. however only last week city were looking for a consensus towards 300k.
fwiw rare for in increase in adp to be followed by a lower nfp but 193k is still higher.


GVI Forex john   12:11:29 GMT - 05/02/2014  
IMHO a 10-yr at 2.62% heading into NFP would seem to be inconsistent with a strong report?


I'm starting my pre-data watch for unusual price moves now on the off chance that the data is leaked. But we know that never happens!!


GVI Forex john   11:42:22 GMT - 05/02/2014  
REFRESH FORUM MANUALLY TO UPDATE 3MO AVG (GREN LINE)


GVI Forex john   11:36:06 GMT - 05/02/2014  
This is why I feel a NFP in excess of +250K would have a profound impact on the markets. I don't care what some say the market expects. Its my observation over the time that traders tend towards the status quo. Markets react to new developments. Just my opinion. Blue line is the six-month moving average.



GVI Forex Jay Meisler  11:21:32 GMT - 05/02/2014  
EURUSD 100 and 200- hour mva lie just below, currently at

1.3851 (100 hour)
1.3837 (200 hour)

Same for GBPUSD

1.6850 (100 hour)
1.6825 (200 hour)


GVI Forex john   15:55:25 GMT - 05/01/2014  
CNBC says their poll of forecasters now sees an average for the first revision of 1Q14 GDP to result in a level of -0.20%.

TIP: This is why we publish inventory and trade numbers. Higher inventories would be an addition to GDP while lower numbers reduce it. As for trade, A larger trade deficit is a negative while a trade surplus would be a positive. When the government prepares the first (advance) GDP estimate, it has to guess at a number of these statistics.


GVI Forex john   15:52:27 GMT - 05/01/2014  
U.S. construction Spending data today is expected cause a downward revision to advance 1Q14 GDP when we get the "preliminary" report due next. One major bank is calling for a -0.1% reading , another sees -0.2% and a third sees -0.3%, after the advance reading of +0.1%.

This could be a contributor to the hard to figure slide in the 10-yr yield tp 2.62% least. Strangely, the EURUSD has been slipping.

Any explanations for the slide in 10-yr yields??


GVI Forex john   13:59:21 GMT - 05/01/2014  
U.S. equities turning south early im NY.


GVI Forex john   12:19:53 GMT - 05/01/2014  
nh- Thank you. I mentioned yesterday that I doubted it had anything to do with the tapering. That seems to be working well.


Livingston nh  12:16:50 GMT - 05/01/2014  
John - the FRB meeting most likely had nothing to do with Taper - implementation of QE3 and the Taper decision have always been FOMC concerns // the other meetings with this topic were held in 2011 so this may be about distortions caused in bank holdings and Treasury issuances - auctions are getting modestly smaller (deficit projections down 114 bio) // when do they start buying bills again??


GVI Forex john   11:18:57 GMT - 05/01/2014  
Otherwise we are in a mild risk-off session today. The FTSE has been leading us higher today and U.S. equity futures are up. Once again we are heading into a NFP report on Friday with dealers looking for a strong report. One of these times they will be right. A bucketful of money has been lost on this bet over the past five years, but this is the way that the markets are leaning for data tomorrow. There is no direct relationship between weekly jobless claims today and payrolls tomorrow. This is good because we are always looking for independent data to confirm each other.


GVI Forex john   11:10:32 GMT - 05/01/2014  
Yellen's topic is Community Bank supervision so it could be a real yawner. On the other hand, she might take the opportunity to share something on the FOMC meeting that ended yesterday. Her predecessor (Bernanke) would usually stick to the stated topic, but Yellen is a major advocate of transparency. I doubt she will be providing any insights into the secret Fed meeting on Tuesday.


Mtl JP  10:51:31 GMT - 05/01/2014  
Janet's yikyak might send the dollar up a bit (and therefor the euro lower some)


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  10:28:13 GMT - 05/01/2014  


Video Market Update

see what it will take to get the EURUSD lower. Pre-NFP outlook



Cambridge Joe  22:54:42 GMT - 04/30/2014  
Then fingers crossed, good luck and good night from here !


Chennai AMI  22:53:40 GMT - 04/30/2014  
Its a buy,


Cambridge Joe  22:43:16 GMT - 04/30/2014  
AMI long or short ?

I have 1 pos long at the same.


Chennai AMI  22:40:21 GMT - 04/30/2014  
Thanks for your views. I'm holding one position from 99.645


Cambridge Joe  22:37:00 GMT - 04/30/2014  
AMI

I've had a couple of unfortunates with oil lately, but that said, to me it's not short. buys around 02:30 gmt. Looks into and thru Friday from here.

Just IMO of course.


syd sf  22:36:46 GMT - 04/30/2014  
lol . I gotta watch out for ladders and black cats for 2 days.


Chennai AMI  22:31:58 GMT - 04/30/2014  
Hey Guyz, your views on current oil move.


Cambridge Joe  22:25:43 GMT - 04/30/2014  
sf two hopes..... Bob Hope and no hope !

ausnzd buys 00:00 gmt and gets the habit.

gbp aud.. not so clear, but I don't think sooo !

Ha !

Yes, I say Ha ! :-)


syd sf  22:14:16 GMT - 04/30/2014  
- aud/nzd = 10680
+ gbp/aud = 1.8330/50

by friday close.


GVI Forex john   21:51:39 GMT - 04/30/2014  
I'm seeing reports that the markets were speculating that the closed door Fed meeting within a meeting was to discuss a pause in the Fed tapering. Perhaps the view is that if a pause were discussed in the "open" closed Fed meeting that it would have had to have been disclosed the regular Minutes. By having a special meting I assume they could have postponed releasing the details until much later.

With the 10-yr note currently below 2.70%, I don't see what a postponing of the taper would accomplish? If they are exiting the taper without the market blowing up, they should be thanking their lucky stars. I am stretching my brain to figure out another plausible reason for a secret meeting on "Medium-Term Monetary Policy".


Paris ib  19:35:22 GMT - 04/30/2014  
Oh right, I thought it was the expedited procedures or the exclusion of the public or something.... I have no idea.


GVI Forex john   19:29:47 GMT - 04/30/2014  
It doesn't bother me. Why do they have to have a meeting when they are already having one? It makes no sense unless it it because of some ridiculous law?


Paris ib  19:25:44 GMT - 04/30/2014  
What bothers you about that John?


dc CB  19:25:30 GMT - 04/30/2014  
 
of course another misleading of the Sheeple

Government in the Sunshine.

As the FED is not a government agency...it is a private Bank Owned organization


GVI Forex john   19:25:30 GMT - 04/30/2014  
cb good catch. It doesn't look like it was an earthshaking topic?


GVI Forex john   19:23:32 GMT - 04/30/2014  
Strange


On Tuesday, April 29, 2014 at 10:30 AM, a meeting of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System was held under expedited procedures, as set forth in section 26lb.7 of the Board's Rules Regarding Public Observation of Meetings, at the Board's offices at 20th and C Streets, N.W., Washington, D.C., to consider the following matters of official Board business.

Meeting Date: Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Matter(s) Considered
1. Discussion of Medium-Term Monetary Policy Issues.



dc CB  19:19:43 GMT - 04/30/2014  
think it might have something to do with the Emergency Meeting that the FED held yesterday...at the SAME time the FMOC was scheduled....but that nobody knows anything about?

Government in the Sunshine Meeting Notice



GVI Forex john   19:10:07 GMT - 04/30/2014  
10-yr yield falling late in the day. Last 2.65% -5bp. I'm having trouble grasping a coherent message.


GVI Forex john   19:05:22 GMT - 04/30/2014  
Thursday-
sees May Day holiday in many centers, but notably not in New York and London.

CHINA: PMI's are always closely followed and can impact the Aussie.

U.K.: Manufacturing PMI will be examined for further evidence that the economy is growing.

U.S.: Yellen is due to speak but not on policy. It appears to me that sometimes she feels the obligation to comment on policy. Remember her job under Bernanke was to work on Fed transparency. U.S. Weekly Jobless are always tracked for its basic trend. U.S. Mfg PMIs will be followed closely for indications of growth. Markets are looking for any confirmation (or not) that the economy is growing.


Our Risk Heat Map earlier was not sending a clear signal. The markets need a coherent signal on where investment flows are heading. On this score NFP on Friday could be decisive.






GVI Forex Jay Meisler  15:03:21 GMT - 04/30/2014  
It is old news but bond market still reacting.

Is it lower bond yields or end of month weighing on the USD?

GPBUSD extending its 4+ year highs, USDJPY slipping to new day low. EURUSD intra-day double top at 1.3869-70 blocks the key daily double top at 1.3879-80, which in turn blocks key 1.3905.

And we still have the FOMC.


GVI Forex john   14:28:44 GMT - 04/30/2014  
Street estimates for NFP is for a gain of 210K to be announced on Friday. Data today suggest that street estimates will be increased once again going into Friday's data. That means that traders once again will be setting up for strong figure again. Sooner or later they will be right, but this has been a losing strategy for the past five years or so.


GVI Forex john   13:14:04 GMT - 04/30/2014  
Summing it up so far...
Japan BOJ does nothing as expected. Mfg PMI data abysmal falling below 50 (49.8).

German data mixed- retail sales lousy, unemployment data improving.

EZ HICP- Mixed No compelling reason for ECB to ease.

U.S. data- mixed so far. ADP payrolls outperformed, but GDP was poor (As usual, I'm already reading reports saying GDP was not that bad. Typical analyst response to a shockingly poor headline number).

Still upcoming

Chicago PMI see 56.5 vs. 55.9
FOMC expect no surprises

Mixed data/news not painting a compelling scenario either way. I think this sets up payrolls on Friday as decisive. U.S. NFP has the potential to improve strongly, but it consistently has underperformed.


London Chris  13:11:31 GMT - 04/30/2014  
is anyone long gbpusd other than our always bullish forum friends in Indonesia?


Mtl JP  13:01:06 GMT - 04/30/2014  
Monday's high: 1.38785 fwiw


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  12:04:08 GMT - 04/30/2014  
1.3854 = 76.4% of 1.3880-1.3771


uk rg  11:45:39 GMT - 04/30/2014  

EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
depending on next data GDP short at 1.3883/88 or long at 1.3800/3785
Now in noman's land
IMHO


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  11:03:53 GMT - 04/30/2014  
Market got stuffed long EUR yesterday and now got stuffed short but only 1.3850+ would suggest a more serious squeeze. Resistance from yesterday is at 1.3840-55. The overnight high was 1.3815 so initial support that would need to hold to keep the focus away from 1.38.

Plenty left on the calendar today so more than enough for some movement.

Anyone have any trade ideas or scenarios to share?


GVI Forex john   10:13:44 GMT - 04/30/2014  
Lots of Key U.S. data today:
12:15 GMT- ADP see +206K
12:30 GMT- GDP see +1.10% pa
18:00 GMT- FOMC Decision see another $10bln taper


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  09:32:40 GMT - 04/30/2014  
High so far has been 1.3833


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  09:24:19 GMT - 04/30/2014  
As I posted on GVIForex (note, 1.3830 so far capping the upside)

Wednesday's Trading Outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 09:09 GMT 04/30/2014 - My Profile
200 hour mva (1.3823) although slope of the mva line is a near flat line. 100 hour mva currently 1.3833

Resistance at 1.3830 blocks upside and 1.3840-55.

Is this typical or what?

Month end, holidays tomorrow, thin trading.


GVI Forex john   19:57:55 GMT - 04/29/2014  
Wednesday

JAPAN BOJ decision. we don't expect much and unlikely to be a major market-moving event.

GERMANY: Retail Sales and Unemployment. Both are potentially market moving releases. Germany is seen as the engine of EZ growth and the data will be judged it that light.

EUROZONE; flash April HICP (CPI) could be very influential on the ECB policy decision in just over a week's time. Key will be if low inflation persists. This would intensify the pressure on the ECB to ease monetary policy further.

UNITED STATES: ADP Private Payrolls are seen gaining 206K in April. Markets are hoping for a strong Spring U.S. bounce back in the economy. U.S. GDP and the Chicago PMI will be examined for positive economic signs.

We are not expecting much from the Fed policy decision. A $10 bln tapering to $45bn is baked into street expectations. Otherwise, look at the policy statement for other news. Interest rates are on hold for the rest of the year at a minimum.




GVI Forex Jay Meisler  17:06:13 GMT - 04/29/2014  
I posted this 2 1/2 hours ago on GVI Forex and you can see how little bounce EURUSD has had since its initial fall it is still within what is now the current 1.3780-1.3880 range.

This market must have gotten stuffed long EUR ahead of Wed's EZ HICP as it has it has shown little bounce since the post-data drop.

Now we roll the dice on EZ HICP, where market will be wary of a weaker inflation # so surprise would be if it comes in hotter. An as per consensus result might be more of a relief to those betting on ECB policy move on May 8.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  14:58:55 GMT - 04/29/2014  
USD is not getting the flows. Main driver has been flows out of EUR but EURUSD remains above 1.38.

So it has been all about the cross offsets (e.g. GBP has been a beneficiary)

By the way I gave a heads up on the German HICP but like most, was not expecting a surprise. A bit disappointing as my plan was to sell into a pop on EZ HICP tomorrow.


GVI Forex john   21:44:08 GMT - 04/28/2014  
Tuesday sees revisions to U.K. GDP. Usually the revisions are not major. UK data recently has been fairly consistently positive and supportive of the GDP.

U.S.: The Case Shiller house price index allegedly is more accurate than other indices, but the data are stale so who cares?

The Conference Board Consumer Sentiment Survey is a well-established survey that is closely followed by many economists. It has a clear shorter-tern time horizon than the University of Michigan Survey. It is seen coming in at 83.0 vs. 82.2 in March.

I have been having my doubts recently about the value of these various sentiment surveys as predictors of the economy. Nevertheless a stronger reading should be USD supportive while a weak reading could hurt.

Notice our chart runs the University of Michigan Survey against the CB Survey even though the questions have different time-frames. Personally, I think the survey participants are unable to differentiate their time frames, so the results are comparable.

API energy data often give us a signal on EIA data on Wednesday. That's all.


dc CB  21:10:56 GMT - 04/28/2014  
Gold


Cambridge Joe  21:06:49 GMT - 04/28/2014  
!!!

Monetary Units
None. In fact there are three freely convertible currencies in the universe, but the Altarian Dollar has recently collapsed, the Flanian Pobble Bead is only exchangeable for other Flanian Pobble Beads, and the Triganic PU doesn't really count as money. Its exchange rate of six Ningies to one PU is simple, but since a Ningy is a triangular rubber coin 6800 miles long each side no one has ever collected enough to own one PU. Ningies are not negotiable currency because the galactic banks refuse to deal in piddling small change. From this basic premise it's very simple to prove that the galactic banks are also the product of a deranged imagination.

Good night !


dc CB  21:04:18 GMT - 04/28/2014  
FMOC meetings start tom

Question? What get Wacked during FMOC meetings.

Love you Gammy.


GVI Forex 17:26:59 GMT - 04/28/2014  
Now the cup is half empty

Stocks in the red...............


NY JM  14:30:42 GMT - 04/28/2014  
Cup half empty or half filled?

US equities (up) leading the way and everything else correlating (bonds, gold, JPY, etc).

GBPUSD failed to hold 1.6840+ but still 1.68+

USDJPY trading 102.50+ but needs to become support to argue higher

EURUSD 1.3850 remains the bias setter although upside did not get close to 1.3905 key res


GVI Forex 13:58:05 GMT - 04/28/2014  
Stocks firming now, NASDAQ in the green. FX market seems to be sitting on its hands after the overnight run through stops.


GVI Forex 13:41:57 GMT - 04/28/2014  
US stocks getting pulled down by NASDAQ slipping slightly into red


GVI Forex john   11:26:50 GMT - 04/28/2014  
On this score, Eurozone "flash" HICP inflation figures for April will be released at 9:00 GMT on Wednesday. They will be a key factor in the ECB policy decision in a week's time.


GVI Forex john   11:21:27 GMT - 04/28/2014  
Its looking like a mild "risk-on" session today as we illustrated in our "Risk-on/Risk-off" table below". As usual, I am keying off equity prices because these days they set the tone for fixed income (bond) markets. There was a time when it worked the other way around. The two then set the tone for forex trading. It looks like the S&P (e-mini) futures are trying to give USDJPY a lift at this hour.

EURUSD continues to display remarkable resilience. It continues to look like it wants to break through topside resistance. We continue to suspect that there is the "invisible hand" of covert intervention to cap the topside of EURUSD.


Mtl JP  01:23:57 GMT - 04/28/2014  
the real fun will probably start when markets dislocate like they did with Lehman... but at a "higher level" level still such as that of foreigners stopping buying each others' paper, say like if they stop adding (let alone dump) Lew's paper. And maybe I ll see Gold at multi-thousands price point in my lifetime yet.


dc CB  01:09:58 GMT - 04/28/2014  
JP

guess you read this

Someone Is Betting That The Chinese Currency Collapses By The End Of 2014?



Mtl JP  00:00:48 GMT - 04/28/2014  
 
anyone w/next trade suggestion from the pic ?
tia !


Mtl JP  23:56:21 GMT - 04/27/2014  
Nikkei is down some in early Asia ,
also reflected in usdyen


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  23:41:54 GMT - 04/27/2014  
Either market would open with a gap on Ukraine or stay in a bunker and wait for data later on to trigger some movement. So far it has been a bunker mentality to start to the week but enough this week to suggest staying alert as there will be some movement..



Cambridge Joe  20:22:17 GMT - 04/27/2014  
Very sorry for this.... computer problems causing concern over the estimations.... caution required.

Running charts from three different platforms and getting conflicting pictures.

Therefore.... DYOD... as per.


Cambridge Joe  19:48:25 GMT - 04/27/2014  
USDJPY same.


Cambridge Joe  19:46:16 GMT - 04/27/2014  
Just got the computer back up..... tech problems... doncha love 'em !

EURJPY buying about 15....30 mins in. IMO. GL

Still can't run most charts... so I'm blind. :-(


GVI Forex john   13:04:44 GMT - 04/27/2014  
Looking ahead.
The Monday calendar is relatively light as usual

JAPAN: sees Retail Sales data consensus +10.90% y/y for April vs 3.60%. The gain is expected due to higher prices after the hike in the consumption tax on April 1. We will have to see the analysis afterwards to determine if the economy is improving.
Personally I have grave doubts about the wisdom of the Sales Tax hike, but a robust reading could give the JPY a boost.

United States: Pending Homes sales measure contracts signed to purchase existing homes. That is the first step in buying a home in the U.S. Afterwards a full contract has to be executed. Once the full contract is executed it becomes an "Existing Homes Sale". The sale can still fall through if all terms of the contact (inspections, mortgage approval, etc.) are not met. Traditionally, most sales that go to contract are completed, but we are not in normal times now.

Pending Homes sales is a reliable predictor of Existing Homes Sales in one to two months time. Existing Homes sales is the most closely followed U.S. housing statistic. U.S. housing data have been an ongoing disappointment and suggest the economy is in a sluggish recovery. The USD could react positively to a better than expected Pending Homes sales release, but this report has been poor for the last six months. (see below). The U.S. economy has to rebound for the long expected USD rally to develop.



GVI Forex Jay Meisler  15:12:53 GMT - 04/25/2014  
FX taking a back seat to stocks and bonds.

EURUSD has had a whopping 20 pip range today but feels like more given the chop.

No obvious place to hide in FX although JPY and CHF stand to benefit as this is where there are carry trade positions

This feels like a game of global chicken where neither side can step down or risk losing face.

Feels like most fx traders have given up on the day.



GVI Forex Jay Meisler  14:29:39 GMT - 04/25/2014  
EURUSD so far unable to get to 1.3850, which guards key levels at 1.3855 and 1.3864. Minor intra-day support at 1.3826/27-31

USDJPY 102.50 capped upside overnight but so far finding support below 102. As noted, 102 will set its tone going forwards. Currently below 20/50/100 day mvas. 100.93 = 200 day mva.

GBPUSD 1.68 has traded each day this week

Unlike other crises, FX is not leading but following.

Sums up a bunker day


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  13:39:01 GMT - 04/25/2014  
Reminder, UofM sentiment comes out to subscribers before it hits the wires.



GVI Forex john   13:28:48 GMT - 04/25/2014  
Whether they realize it or not, JPY bears (USDJPY bulls) have been betting on a higher Nikkei and S&P. Problem is I don't know how much upside the equity markets still have in them?


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  13:21:30 GMT - 04/25/2014  
Markets need to be led and this is why JPY bears are frustrated by the BoJ not hinting of more QE and EUR bears hoping for a currency signal from the ECB in the form of a rate cut to negative or QE.


GVI Forex john   13:18:37 GMT - 04/25/2014  
Flip- There are times when I agree with these observations, but somehow I feel that the markets only need a reason (pretext?) to break out of these chains. I don't feel the algos do any thinking, that is why the current state of affairs can't last.

I'm curious how they would deal with the volatility that some of us have seen in the not too distant past?


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  13:18:18 GMT - 04/25/2014  
Flip, for intra-day trading, market seems only to move on news or anticipation of news events and then settles back into ranges after stops get run (or if stops aren't run).

Currently, EURUSD is just +70 pips y-t-d after nearly 4 months of trading while USD is down against most currencies except CAD and that is off its high.

This is in a year where forecasts were (and for the most part still are) calling for a higher USD based on the economy outperforming its peers.

Ukraine becomes an issue for Europe if Russia cuts off gas exports but that is something both sides want to avoid.


Brisbane Flip  13:10:03 GMT - 04/25/2014  
John I don't think there are many actual people with opinions who move volume in the market these days. Between algos, HFT and ACBs "managing" squillions in their country's interests the news and fundamentals appear less important by the day.
E.g Europe has drifted into deflation with no growth and massive unemployment but I can't remember us actually trading off any of it on any reinforcing continually imploding data release.


GVI Forex john   13:01:24 GMT - 04/25/2014  
If the markets felt there were a a serious risk of a major event in Ukraine over the weekend, they would be selling EURUSD. As of this hour, the EURUSD is up very modestly.

The moves in stocks and bonds look to me more like position squaring than pro-active trading into the new week. Does this position-squaring present a trading opportunity?



GVI Forex Jay Meisler  12:49:56 GMT - 04/25/2014  
Market wants to ignore Ukraine but as tensions rise, Russian troops edge closer to the border, and US threatens more sanctions (question is how far will Europe go), market is forced into defense.

Given a market heading to the bunkers, my daily outlook video covers risk on a day like this. I also suggest clicking on the link in the video if you want some keen insights.



Video Market Update

Defensive Friday, Potential EURUSD stop levels.



GVI Forex john   12:32:23 GMT - 04/25/2014  
Here we are: "same old same old"

The DAX is getting slammed again today heading into the weekend presumably due to caution over Ukraine.

Note below our revised blue table is showing a lot of red due to risk off. (Lower equities and falling bond yields).

Lower S&P futures are a weight of USDJPY because of the correlation trade. Nikkei futures are lower now (-75) after the cash market closed higher. DJ futures are down 58.

EURUSD and Gold do not correlate well with risk-on or risk-off in my view.






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