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dc CB  03:03:24 GMT - 05/05/2014  

Art by

dc CB  02:57:10 GMT - 05/05/2014  
what happens when all the traders agree that it ain't worth shite

when no matter what


that be the scare that runs down the spine

dc CB  02:26:50 GMT - 05/05/2014  
Cambridge Joe 20:20 GMT
Where and how to discover where heavy stops are, how and why they get defended.... option expiry.... where and how to find current info .... ?


000000000. . link

and no the answer ain't there


Mtl JP  01:25:38 GMT - 05/05/2014  
GVI Forex john 13:05 my JP 13:36 was addressed to you
On another note:
how do you choose which COTs to post on GV ?
side note: notice that the largest held short was the Pound . fwiw.

Cambridge Joe  20:20:21 GMT - 05/04/2014  
tks CB. Mostly way over my head..... but I'm picking up bits.

Where and how to discover where heavy stops are, how and why they get defended.... option expiry.... where and how to find current info .... ?

To me gold looks softer thru 1st session.

dc CB  20:13:59 GMT - 05/04/2014  

Crude NYMEX the Commercials are always short...tells you nothing except for the degree


dc CB  20:06:09 GMT - 05/04/2014  

Open Interest in currencies financials etc is also a function of Contract Expiration....Quarterly. it will build and then collapse.

dc CB  19:51:36 GMT - 05/04/2014  
how it gets confusing


Cambridge Joe  19:08:15 GMT - 05/04/2014  
CB Velly velly interesting....

Your BP chart clearly shows Commercials buying low and selling high..... The interest flips over as the open interest crosses the line.

Thanks for the clear example.

dc CB  19:04:34 GMT - 05/04/2014  
FWIW the BP view Old School COT


dc CB  18:57:24 GMT - 05/04/2014  
The COT reports were orginally usefull back in the last century, BEFORE, bank funds got involved trarding comds.
Then there were 3 groups "reporting positions": The Commercials - those who grew/stored/bought the Ag product, The Large Specs, and the Small Specs.
Famous Trader Larry Williams made a lot of his initial money and Fame watching COT. Or as he put it ---watcing the footsteps of Giants.

The thing to pay attention to was the postioning of these groups. NOT the Net Long or Short of all the groups. When BAnks funds got oinvolved the COT report got really confusing and velly velly unreliable. If you go the the COT page put out by the CFTC, you will now see numerous "catagories" and also different sets of reports ====Agregated, DisAggregated.

COT reports are barely usefully in Currencies.
In Stock indexes...Esp the SnP...highly liquid Emini electronicly traded distorts the view. It's best to look at the positoning in the Bid SnP. (the one I posted on friday)

Again it's who's on what side that matters.

The 10Y chart above shows that the Commercials are LONG, but selling into this the Open Interest ---the skinny blue line ---rises.


Mtl JP  13:36:47 GMT - 05/04/2014  
why, do you think, are the printers in Japan, the US and Europe having a hard time creating "inflation" ?

what, do you think, would unleash
- "inflation" ?
- how about "hyper-inflation" (prices rising at greater than 30%) ?

note: Janet or one of her spies is probably watching this chatroom

GVI Forex john   13:05:10 GMT - 05/04/2014  
I published the 10-yr chart before it was completely ready. Each instrument has two charts. The first shows contract longs and shorts. The second (blue) shows NET longs. Each chart tells us something different. The first displays the magnitude of long and short positions while the second emphasizes the net exposure of the market. What I had not realized was how net short the market had become in the 10-yr note contract.

The right sidebar displays interest rates in an inverse scale which shows rates falling as you read UP the scale. This is because the PRICE of the contract INCREASES as its yield falls. Traders will want to BUY when yields fall to cover their shorts.

Bottom line there must have been short covering in the 10-yr Note contract as yields tumbled.

Cambridge Joe  12:19:29 GMT - 05/04/2014  
John thank you for the response interesting stuff !

For me it's always an eye opener to come across a whole new perspective on the market, one which I have never looked at before.

The UKR situation appears to deteriorate. We all need to hope that the situation does not go beyond a point which sparks off a chain reaction which runs out of control.... a kind of Military / Diplomatic 'Flash-Crash' from which there is no turning back.

The politicians, Tony Blair among other un-flushed toilets, want their names to live on and play Napolian or something...

In the meantime, the nuts and bolts reads something like this.

GVI Forex john   21:17:19 GMT - 05/03/2014  
The USDJPY still looks overextended, but the chart indicates that there had already been some gradual liquidation of shorts through last Tuesday. This is due more due to a lack of price movement than an adverse price swing, which sucks!

GVI Forex john   21:09:58 GMT - 05/03/2014  
Joe I look at the COT reports for indications of markets that are overextended. That means when the market starts to liquidate there will be a lot of POWER behind the stops when positions are being squared up. My point on the earlier post was that neither the S&P or the 10-yr Note looks to be heavily overextended. To me that suggests that there was another reason for the free-fall in the yield on the 10-yr on Friday other than stops.

Here is a current example of what I feel is a good example of an overextended market waiting for a catalyst.

Cambridge Joe  20:28:59 GMT - 05/03/2014  
John adding the COT for the S&P I think will be of great interest going forward. However, if "stop-loss orders are the strongest force in trading", how do I see this information from the chart posted or am I being obtuse ?

GVI Forex john   15:23:49 GMT - 05/03/2014  
Ive been trying not to overdo the COT charts, but I recently added S&P futures and then the 10-yr note today after hearing that the 10-yr note was heavily oversold coming into the end of last week. I wonder sometimes where these ideas come from. Note below that the market was short the 10-year as of the close on Tuesday but not overly so. It is not an explanation for the freefall in yields on Friday.

Note the two yield lines (actual and 20-day avgs) they are hard to reconcile with a Fed "taper", a recovering U.S. economy, and a net short position in 10-yr Note futures.

Why does this all matter?
1) all markets are correlated.
2) Stocks and bonds are the key elements of risk-on and Risk off.
3) COT data are representative of market sentiment and stop-loss orders are the strongest force in trading.

GVI Forex john   19:45:45 GMT - 05/02/2014  

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