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Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore  17:58:25 GMT - 05/14/2014  
Jay..yes, thanks..was aware of your levels, etc.

just nursing my Trade..


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  17:18:49 GMT - 05/14/2014  
Sir Ignore, I presented the key levels and what it would take to ease the risk.

Range today has been 32 pips, yesterday 85 pips (considered a big day in this low vol market), and Monday was just 25 pips.

GBP has had the bigger ranges today along with JPY crosses and of course bond markets.



Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore  16:08:00 GMT - 05/14/2014  
posted yesterday long euro 1.3720 with stop under 1.3700 for 1.3750 and 1.3820144 sma..approx

like the possibility, don't like being on life support

gl gt


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  15:57:53 GMT - 05/14/2014  
Key intra-day EURUSD level is 1.3730 (one hour double top) in this tight range/consolidating day. Could be some stops above it but upside capped while it holds. Only 1.3740-50 would slow the risk to 1.3670.


London Chris  14:21:25 GMT - 05/14/2014  
There is a risk that firmer bonds (lower rates) could undercut the dollar although yields are lower everywhere.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  13:35:35 GMT - 05/14/2014  
Next key support is 1.6656 so why I said 1.6750 is pivotal

I wonder whether pure technicians still say that news doesn't matter?


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  13:26:04 GMT - 05/14/2014  
As posted earlier on GVI Forex

Wednesday's Trading Outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:01 GMT 05/14/2014 - My Profile
GBPUSD: I show a major trendline break at 1.6784

1.6723 = 50 day mva

1.6750 likely to determine whether focus stays on 1.68


GVI Forex john   20:25:29 GMT - 05/13/2014  
Wednesday

Japan: 1Q14 GDP- see 1.0% vs. +0.20% not likely to be a market mover.

U.K.: Employment Report & Bank of England Inflation Report. Jobs data are a key measure of the strength of the Economy. We spotted strength in the U.K. economy initially in these data about a year ago. As for the BOE Quarterly Inflation Report, The BOE targets inflation and must report its performance to the government once each quarter.

Eurozone: Composite Industrial Production- We will be looking closely at this indicator of economic strength. Its a part of the puzzle the ECB will be looking at early in June.

U.S.: PPI- unlikely to be a market mover.




Cambridge Joe  18:23:04 GMT - 05/13/2014  
Sold oil 101.50 . GL !


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  17:55:20 GMT - 05/13/2014  
Came within range of the major daily trendline, so far holding it, which protects the key 1.3670 level. At a minimum 1.3700+ is needed to slow the risk.


GVI Forex john   17:11:49 GMT - 05/13/2014  
EURUSD making new LOD 1.3688. Last 1.3692.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler  17:04:57 GMT - 05/13/2014  
Sticking with the bearish bias while below 1.3740-50 (as noted earlier) and that has worked out...

Market next needs to test 1.3670, seems a matter of when, only 1.3740-50+ neutralizes the risk. There is a major daily trendline that comes in ahead of it at 1.3680 (but use some leeway as some have it at 1.3685 and 1.3690).


GVI Forex john   16:57:37 GMT - 05/13/2014  
Be sure to know where these benchmark moving averages lie. If you are tempted to buy a falling knife you don't want to put a stop at or around one of the "vulnerable levels".


GVI Forex john   16:53:03 GMT - 05/13/2014  
There is little doubt that this has been a major break in EURUSD since May 8, when Mario Draghi sent a clear signal that a weaker currency is desired. I'm seeing that a number of key moving averages have been breached 20-day 1.3822. 50-day 1.3824, 100-day 1.3739. The 200-day is now in range @ 1.3621. The 200-day average is of greater interest to equity traders than forex traders as we tend to be a lot more shorter-term oriented.

We won't get a nice clean look in the COT report Friday because it is taken on Tuesdays, but I suspect EURUSD longs were building into last Thursday, which is why there has been so much selling. As I often say, stops are the greatest force in forex. That is why the COT reports can be useful, because they give you a general idea of how traders are positioned and therefore where the vulnerabilities lie.



NY JM  15:46:40 GMT - 05/13/2014  
EURUSD triple intra-day bottom around 1.3700

US session range has been 1.3699-1.3730

Market stays bearish as long as below 1.3740-50


GVI Forex john   11:13:09 GMT - 05/13/2014  
The key question is whether we are transitioning away from the Ukraine-driven political markets to more traditional drivers. Political pundits have been saying for a couple of weeks that Putin has been trying to dial down the tensions.

Note that Draghi last week said that that the EUR demand has been driven by capital flight due to political uncertainties.


GVIForex Jay Meisler  11:03:42 GMT - 05/13/2014  
EURUSD 1.3670 is key support and in that area is also 1.3673 = 61,8% of the 2014 range (1.3475-1.3993)

1.3623 = 200 day mva

Market will stay in a SOB mode as long as below 1.3740-50


GVI Forex john   10:55:42 GMT - 05/13/2014  
I noted last week and in my weekend comments that ECB President Draghi had been providing "forward guidance" for an ECB policy easing after the last ECB meeting. Forward guidance is a signal for possible future policy action, but it is contingent on the current economic conditions not changing. The problem in the Eurozone is that inflation is not hitting the ECB's minimum target level. The ECB targets inflation at just below 2.00%.

I know to some traders the Bundesbank comments a short while ago were just words. but assuming the Bundesbank source quoted a short while ago was authoritative, it would mark a public green light from the German central bank for the ECB to ease policy at its June meeting. Important for EUR trading strategies, the markets have been reacting accordingly.

UNOFFICIALLY, the Bundesbank appears to have a veto power over major ECB decisions. Its not fair, but thats the way the world works. No other EZ central bank has that power. I am wondering if the Bunbesbak is reacting to the recent weakness in German data that I have been seeing?






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